Every league has an owner who falls victim to the sunk-cost fallacy. You know the one, where a guy won’t trade his second-round pick for someone’s eighth-rounder, even if their values have changed dramatically since draft day. Remember the lesson: What you paid for a guy is immediately irrelevant. All that matters is what a guy is worth in the moment.
ADP means nothing anymore. Seriously, it means absolutely nothing. Just because you drafted Sammy Watkins in the third round doesn’t mean that he’ll net you a third-rounder in return. As a matter of fact, if someone is offering you Marvin Jones for Watkins, you should probably consider it.
The range of outcomes for every player is unique, and Watkins’ worst one is that he is shut down for the season. I know he came forward and said he’ll be out there on Thursday when the Bills play the Jets, but this smells a lot like Dez Bryant in 2015. Remember when he came back, wasn’t the same player, and ultimately needed to end his season? So when you consider this, you may have to sell your shares at 60 cents on the dollar.
That is precisely what the Fantasy Stock Market is — knowing the art of when to sell and when to buy. Considering that we are just one game in, there are some people who aren’t going to be willing to part with a stud who’s had one bad game, but I’ll give you some players who you can get for cheaper than they’ll ultimately be worth. On the flip side, I’ll tell you which players to get rid of, before they lose the value they currently have. Outside of Watkins, that is.
Buy
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
There are a lot of people willing to write off Freeman, considering he’d already fallen to the end of the second round of fantasy drafts despite finishing as fantasy’s No. 1 running back last year. Now that he’s had a bad game, they have “concrete evidence” to say that he isn’t even a top-20 running back this year. Those are the type of owners you need to find when targeting Freeman.
He had a bad game against the Bucs, let’s not dance around it. But to pretend that Tevin Coleman stole the show and the job is more than premature, it’s a tad ridiculous. Coleman himself toted the ball eight times for just 22 yards (2.8 YPC), yet the Freeman nay-sayers will point to Freeman’s yards per carry late in 2015 as evidence against him. “But Mike, Coleman caught five passes for 95 yards, while Freeman caught four passes for 20 yards!” I get it, Coleman got more work in the passing game than anticipated, but it’s also important to know that 50 percent of his yardage came on one play.
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