Fantasy News & Analysis

Arbitrary endpoints: What if the season started at Week 4?

NEW ORLEANS, LA - SEPTEMBER 17: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady fires a pass in the second quarter during a game against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, La., Sept. 17, 2017. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

This is the trend report, where we look at only the most recent weeks and ignore the first part of the fantasy football season to see if our “knowledge” might be different with a different starting point.

The small-sample nature of the NFL leads us to drawing conclusions on insufficient data. The structure of the schedule means we’re drawing those conclusions in a predictable order, with the first few weeks weighing more heavily in our analysis than perhaps it warrants.

So let’s take it out of the equation. Let’s pretend the season started with Week 4. What’s different? What conclusions would we be drawing without Weeks 1 through 3 weighing in on things?

Here are some bold statements we might be making if we ignored that first bit of small-sample data and created some small-sample data of our own. And then we’ll follow that up with the real takeaways from the changing information to this point of the season.

Father time catching up?

Tom Brady is no longer a Tier 1 fantasy quarterback.

Small-sample takeaway: We are finally seeing a decline in Brady’s play. The 40-year-old is still putting up QB1 numbers, but is no longer the elite player we’ve become accustomed to.

Real analysis: The Patriots’ offense leads the NFL in passing yards (309.8) and total yards (412.0) per game for the season. Brady has been at the center of the production, especially when you consider that they rank 19th in rushing yards per contest (102.2).

Brady is only behind Deshaun Watson in fantasy points through six weeks. Yet if you take away his Week 2 and 3 wins over the Saints and Texans where Brady threw for eight touchdowns and totaled 825 passing yards, the 40-year-old veteran has only netted five TD passes and averaged 283.5 yards per contest in his other four outings.

Over the last three weeks, Brady has come in as the QB9 on the board, which isn’t bad but far from his perceived upside when owners invested an early-round pick. Despite the modest numbers, Brady led the league in dropbacks (131) and attempts (123) during that span. He was picked off in each of the last two games. The last time he was intercepted in two straight outings came in Weeks 10-11 of 2015. Don’t worry though big numbers will still come because the volume will be there.

McKinnon magic

Jerick McKinnon should be viewed as a RB1 at this point.

Small-sample takeaway: With Dalvin Cook out for the season and Latavius Murray a non-factor, McKinnon has performed as a top five fantasy RB.

Real analysis: Don’t look now, but McKinnon is playing just as well as or even better than Cook was before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. In the two weeks since the rookie went down for the Vikings, McKinnon has tallied 26-plus PPR fantasy points in each outing.

Since Week 4 only four running backs have posted more fantasy points in PPR formats than McKinnon’s 52 points and just six have tallied more points per opportunity (0.48). That’s pretty remarkable when you consider in the first week of that period McKinnon only had two touches.

He has shown flashes before, but struggled with durability. The team simply didn’t trust him, which is why they first signed Murray as a free agent and then traded up to select Cook in Round 2 of April’s draft. They trust McKinnon now though as evident by his 43 total touches over the last two games. Owners should trust him too until further notice.

Feeling Fuller

Will Fuller is a must-start fantasy wide receiver.

Small-sample takeaway: Even though he’s not even the No. 1 wide receiver on his own team, Fuller is putting up WR1 numbers.

Real analysis: After missing the first three weeks of the season with a broken collarbone, Fuller has returned with a bang to the Texans’ offense. He has scored five times in three games and has developed some nice chemistry with Watson.

Since his return to action, only teammate DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown have been more productive in terms of fantasy points. Fuller has done that with half or less of the targets. He’s been targeted 14 times compared to Hopkins’ 27 and Brown’s 36 targets.

It’s not just his nose for the end zone making him appealing. Fuller’s 11.0 yards per target and 19.9-yard average depth of target are among the best in the league. Touchdown regression is ahead, but his big-play ability is not going away. If Watson keeps up his hot play, special things are ahead. Fuller is more valuable in standard formats, but arguably is a top 25-30 wideout the rest of the way regardless of league setup.

Panthers dynamic duo

Carolina has two top-10 fantasy receivers.

Small-sample takeaway: Both Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess have emerged as fantasy WR1 candidates.

Real analysis: If you look at the top 10 scoring wide receivers in PPR fantasy leagues over the past three weeks you’ll find three sets of teammates – Houston’s Hopkins (first) and Fuller (third); Green Bay’s Davante Adams (fifth) and Jordy Nelson (ninth); and Carolina’s Benjamin (sixth) and Funchess (seventh).

The Carolina duo might be the most surprising of the bunch. Funchess has been targeted two more times than Benjamin, but both have pulled in 17 catches a piece for a combined 420 yards and four touchdowns.

Funchess’ production has been more based on touchdowns as he’s made three trips to the end zone over the last three. That makes him more likely to disappoint. He hasn’t had more than four catches in four of his six games and 70 yards is his best single-game output on the year. Benjamin has only one score all year, but offers more consistency in targets and receptions. Neither wide receiver is a solid bet to finish inside the top 10 in fantasy scoring, but both are nice assets to own.

Walker woeful

Fantasy owners can no longer count on Delanie Walker.

Small-sample takeaway: The veteran tight end is coming up empty and could be on the decline.

Real analysis: Walker has failed to reach double-digit PPR fantasy points in four straight games. To put that into more perspective, that only happened five times all of last year and has only occurred in seven of his 36 contests since the start of the 2015 season.

You can write off one of his last three games due to the fact the Titans had Matt Cassel under center. Tennessee tried to get Walker involved in Monday night’s win over Indianapolis, targeting him eight times and even giving him a goal-line carry, but he lost three yards on the rushing attempt and only reeled in four catches for 17 yards.

There was some concern during the offseason that the addition of Eric Decker would diminish Walker’s value in the red zone. However, the drop in production can more likely be tied to the fact the Titans haven’t really started clicking and have had some key offensive cogs get banged up, including Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray. Walker should get it going sooner rather than later. Given the lack of production at tight end the veteran seems to be a sensible buy-low candidate.

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