We have reached the finish line on the fantasy regular season, but there is still a quarter of the 2017 NFL regular season left. Over the next month fantasy title hopes will be realized and many more will be smashed. Over the last five weeks we’ve seen some interesting trends develop. What does the future hold?
The small-sample nature of the NFL leads us to drawing conclusions on insufficient data. Often we are focusing too much on the early part of the season than perhaps we should.
So let’s take it out of the equation. Let’s pretend the season started with Week 8. What’s different? What conclusions would we be drawing without Weeks 1 through 7 weighing in on things?
Here are some bold statements we might be making if we ignored that first bit of small-sample data and created some small-sample data of our own. And then we’ll follow that up with the real takeaways from the changing information to this point of the season.
Big things from Big Ben
Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Small-sample takeaway: Roethlisberger has enjoyed a surge to become a must-start option.
Real analysis: Since Week 8, only Russell Wilson has thrown more touchdowns than Roethlisberger, and Pittsburgh played one fewer game. He has averaged 300 yards per contest and 0.59 fantasy points per dropback during that span.
The veteran enjoyed two straight 30-point games after a stretch of six consecutive under 20-point fantasy performances earlier in the year. After only playing three home games in the first 10 weeks of the season, Big Ben has played in two in a row at Heinz Field and two of his next three will be there too.
Roethlisberger hits the road again this week at Cincinnati and with a Week 16 trip to Houston, but he is dialed in right now and with Antonio Brown heating up Big Ben should offer top-10 production in December. Just don’t expect him to continue at the elite level we’ve seen the past two weeks.
Does the Pack have a back?
Due to his high-volume Jamaal Williams is a RB1.
Small-sample takeaway: With Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery ailing, Williams has become a must-have fantasy running back.
Real analysis: We’ve seen Montgomery offer fantasy production out of the Green Bay backfield and briefly Jones as well. With both of them injured and out of the picture Williams has been posting some impressive numbers, even though his chances are coming with Brett Hundley under center.
Williams has averaged 17.75 touches per game over his last four appearances and registered 336 total yards and three touchdowns over that stretch, which is good enough to make him RB9 in PPR formats. He’s coming off his best game of his short career in Week 12, when he had 135 total yards and two scores on 25 touches.
The rookie should be continued to be viewed as a high-volume, low-end RB2 as long as he owns the bulk of the Packers’ carries. However, Montgomery and Jones could still return before season’s end and that could dent his value as the fantasy playoffs unfold.
Jumping from Jordan
Jordan Howard is a match-up play only and not a weekly must-start option.
Small-sample takeaway: The second-year running back is a TD-dependent boom-or-bust fantasy option.
Real analysis: The Bears’ last win came in Week 7 and the losing streak has now reached four games. The offense has sputtered badly during that time and Howard has had a hand in the disappointment. The struggles of rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky are weighing down Howard’s potential.
With teams stacking the box more than ever, the running back is finding it tougher to post monster numbers and touchdowns have become hard to come by. He’s still getting volume (60 carries for 287 yards), but managed just one score during that span.
Howard has rushed for 4.8 yards per carry during Chicago’s recent skid. However, he’s a non-factor in the passing game (5 receptions on 7 targets for 32 yards) and without the TDs going on the board his ceiling is as low as it’s been all season.
Calling on Crowder
Jamison Crowder has emerged as the Redskins’ top target and huge fantasy asset.
Small-sample takeaway: With so many ailing teammates Crowder is becoming the focal point of the passing game in Washington.
Real analysis: Of the receivers who have had a bye since Week 8, only Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, and Antonio Brown have tallied more receiving yards than Crowder. He’s registered 412 yards and 27 catches on 38 targets in that period with one touchdown.
With Chris Thomspon and Terrelle Pryor placed on I.R. and Jordan Reed struggling to get back on the field as he deals with his own injuries, Crowder has become the go-to-guy for Kirk Cousins. He’s had seven catches in three of his last four outings and cranked out a career-high 141 yards in Week 12 vs. the Giants.
Crowder was highly touted this summer, but ended up on many waiver wires after finishing as WR88 over the first five weeks of the season. The owners that scooped him up are reaping the rewards now and should continue to capitalize on his presence in the lineup during the season’s final month.
Done with Diggs
Stefon Diggs is no longer WR2 worthy.
Small-sample takeaway: Adam Thielen is the Vikings’ top wide receiver and that has left Diggs as a WR3 option at best.
Real analysis: After scoring four times in the season’s first three weeks, Diggs has made his way into the end zone just once since. Through his first four games he was 13th in targets (32) among wide receivers, but since Week 8 he ranks 43rd Case Keenum is fantasy football’s No. 5 QB. However, Thielen has taken over as the team’s top receiving threat and that trend doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon.
Of the games he finished, three of the four worst performances turned in by Diggs this year came over his past four contests. He’s always been a streaky player and with some favorable matchups on tap for the fantasy playoffs (@CAR, CIN, @GB) there’s still a good chance Diggs finishes with a bang, but be prepared that you could get burned.
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