The small-sample nature of the NFL leads us to drawing conclusions on insufficient data. Often we are focusing too much on the early part of the season than perhaps we should.
So let’s take it out of the equation. Let’s pretend the season started with Week 7. What’s different? What conclusions would we be drawing without Weeks 1 through 6 weighing in on things?
We are down to just a few more weeks before the fantasy playoffs begin. There are some players heating up and some cooling off.
Here are some bold statements we might be making if we ignored that first bit of small-sample data and created some small-sample data of our own. And then we’ll follow that up with the real takeaways from the changing information to this point of the season.
Go Goff Go
Jared Goff is ready to carry fantasy teams to championships.
Small-sample takeaway: Playing in his first year under Sean McVay, Jared Goff has emerged as a sure-fire weekly QB1 option.
Real analysis: Despite missing one game during the four-week span we are discussing here with a bye, Goff has posted the sixth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks. He has completed 61-of-88 passes for 901 yards and eight touchdowns while throwing one interception. Only Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz have had more than his 0.74 points per dropback since Week 7.
After scoring a league-worst 14.0 points per game a year ago, the Rams are putting up a NFL-best 32.9 per contest in 2017 and Goff is a huge reason why. He’s made major strides in his second season and is developing some nice chemistry with his wide receivers, especially Robert Woods (WR3 over last four weeks). Expect that trend to continue down the stretch. He may not single-handedly carry the Rams or fantasy teams to championships, but titles can be had in both cases with him under center.
Hunt grinds to a halt
Kareem Hunt is no lineup lock.
Small-sample takeaway: After a fast start to his NFL career, the rookie is fading fast and he shouldn’t be counted on as a RB1.
Real analysis: Hunt averaged 32.9 fantasy points in PPR leagues in his first three weeks, but hasn’t reached 17 fantasy points in a game or scored a touchdown since. He has failed to reach 50 yards rushing in three of his last four contests to boot. The Chief had 100 or more total yards in his first seven games of the year, but has fallen short of that mark over his last two.
The Week 10 bye came at a good time for the rookie and hopefully it will allow him to get healed up from any his aches and pains and returned refreshed. The schedule favors Hunt finishing strong with matchups against the Giants, Bills, and Chargers still ahead. Some regression was expected after his hot start, but the rookie remains a very valuable fantasy asset playing in Andy Reid’s system where he’ll continue to see a high volume of touches.
Sexy Rex-y
Finally healthy, Rex Burkhead has emerged as a top 25 RB and is the guy to own in New England.
Small-sample takeaway: Burkhead has already surpassed Mike Gillislee and it is only a matter of time before he leapfrogs Dion Lewis and James White too.
Real analysis: Burkhead led all Patriots’ running backs with 36 snaps in Week 10’s win at Denver. Lewis played on 21 snaps while White saw the field on 14 plays. Gillislee was a healthy scratch. Burkhead parlayed that opportunity into 10 carries for 36 yards and he pulled in all three of his targets for 27 yards and a touchdown.
He’s never going to have the backfield all to himself, but Burkhead has now scored 15 PPR points in back-to-back games and is clearly earning the trust of Brady. His versatility on special teams makes him even more valuable to the Patriots. Lewis still out-touched Burkhead this week 14:13, but expect Burkhead’s role to grow. He has a chance to be a big contributor down the stretch and is a must-add on the waiver wire in leagues where he’s still available, especially in PPR formats.
Drinking the JuJu juice
Pittsburgh rookie wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has emerged as a weekly fantasy starter.
Small-sample takeaway: Smith-Schuster keeps getting better each week and the future is now for him in the Steelers’ passing attack.
Real analysis: There’s no doubt Smith-Schuster has taken full advantage of Martavis Bryant’s miscues and leapfrogged the veteran on the depth chart. Since Week 7 he’s the WR10 in PPR leagues and that is despite only playing in three games. During that period he’s pulled in 13 of his 18 targets for 322 and a pair of touchdowns. He also has posted an eye-popping 17.9 yards per target and 0.76 points per opportunity.
The 20-year-old is still a bit raw and might come up empty at times, but his ceiling is rising by the week. The home/road splits of Ben Roethlisberger are well documented and the fact that the Steelers play four of their six games between now and Week 16 at Heinz Field should spell good things for the team’s passing game as a whole. That makes Smith-Schuster an even more valuable commodity to have for the stretch run.
Crying for Crabtree
It’s getting harder and harder to play Michael Crabtree with confidence.
Small-sample takeaway: Amari Cooper is heating up and it is crushing Crabtree’s fantasy value.
Real analysis: The past three games for Crabtree have been disappointing. He’s only managed to pull in 11 of his 21 targets for 147 yards and a touchdown. He’s ranked 66th at the position in points per opportunity (0.27) in that period. He’s also now gone scoreless in two straight after registering six touchdowns in the previous five games.
His Week 9 dud performance in which he caught three balls for 40 yards was his worst output of the season. Crabtree has still managed 80 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in all but two games this season. With a favorable schedule over the next few weeks and a bye week to get healthy expect him to get on track against the Patriots, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (39.4 PPR) to wide receivers this season.
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