The top contrarian plays for Week 5 in DFS
“Where there is a crowd, run the other way and you’ll be right.” – Charles Bukowski
Last week was another strong week for the contrarian. Let’s review Week 4’s winning Millionaire Maker lineup:
Not only did Steiniscool’s lineup roster four players under 10 percent owned, but his two lowest-scoring players were actually his two highest-owned options, proving yet again, you don’t need to play a chalk-heavy lineup to take down a GPP. His highest-scoring player was Julio Jones (only 7.6 percent owned), who scored a whopping 51 DraftKings points. Prior to last week’s game, Jones had only 19 targets – or 24 fewer than he had at the same time last season. Who on earth could have seen this coming?
Oh, that’s right, I did. I recommended Jones in last week’s article and hopefully you took my advice. If you were one of my readers, Steiniscool, hit me up on twitter so I can send you my PayPal for my rightful five percent finder’s fee. That’s only fair, right?
Looking at Fantasy Aces’ Week 5 ownership percentages from the $3 Quick Slant Thursday-Monday GPP contest provided to us by TwoQBs.com, this week, the following players are projected to be the chalk (most highly-owned): Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Jordan Howard, Jerick McKinnon, DeAndre Washington, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Zach Ertz and Greg Olsen.
As is typical, we’ll be fading the above players on the majority of our lineups and we will instead be looking at the following leverage plays (players who would benefit the most if the chalk underperforms) and contrarian plays (players under 7.5 percent owned) this week:
Derek Anderson, Carolina Panthers (4%)
In just one quarter of play last week, Anderson threw the ball 23 times for 17 completions, 172 yards, and two touchdowns (also two interceptions). Yes, in just one quarter, he outscored quarterbacks such as Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning and Matt Stafford. In his prior two starts (2014), Anderson threw the ball 74 times for 49 completions, 507 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions (both of these games were against Tampa Bay). Over these nine quarters of play, Greg Olsen amassed 59.5 PPR points and Kelvin Benjamin totaled 41.8, so both are in play for me as potential stacking options.