“The minority is sometimes right; the majority always wrong.” – George Bernard Shaw
Ever have a day that seemed so outlandish, that it couldn’t be true? …And then it wasn’t?
Let me start over.
I once dreamt I was engaged in a Samurai sword-fight to the death with Whoopi Goldberg, while on rollerblades. It was easily the single weirdest dream I’ve ever had. That’s what I get for taking too much melatonin that night and watching one too many Sister Act marathons in my childhood, I guess. Toward the culmination of our battle, Goldberg had the upper-hand and I thought to myself “Man, this is so weird. I hope I’m dreaming.” Then, I woke up.
Week 12 was like this. Brandin Cooks scored zero points in a game Drew Brees threw for 310 yards and four touchdowns. Miami’s tight end, Dion Sims, outscored the combination of Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, Eric Ebron and Antonio Gates by over 10 PPR fantasy points. Week 12 was a nightmare I desperately wanted to wake up from, but couldn’t — because, unfortunately, it was real life.
Week 12 was a not-so-gentle reminder of how random and volatile this sport is. The good news is, this is something the contrarian can always take advantage of. The bad news is, last week, we didn’t. Hopefully you played Michael Thomas last week and ignored the rest of my terrible plays.
“We’re on to Cincinnati.”
Looking at Fantasy Aces’ Week 13 ownership percentages from the $3 Quick Slant Thursday-Monday GPP contest provided to us by TwoQBs.com, this week, the following players are projected to be the chalk (most highly owned): Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Jordan Howard, Brandin Cooks, Tyreek Hill and Julio Jones.
As is typical, we’ll be fading the above players on the majority of our lineups and will instead be looking at the following leverage plays (players who would benefit the most if the chalk underperforms) and contrarian plays (players under 10 percent owned) this week.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (6%)
Roethlisberger has been abysmal when on the road this season. He ranks seventh-worst among 31 qualifying quarterbacks in road passer rating (81.9). Luckily for us, he's at home this week, where he ranks first in passer rating (123.8). It was encouraging to see Roethlisberger throw for 221 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions on the road last week, but still his splits are even more disparate than Drew Brees — who was the highest-owned quarterback Thursday on FantasyAces, at home against the Lions. Here’s how Roethlisberger has performed over his last 22 regular season games at home and his last 22 regular season games when on the road:
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