The top contrarian plays for Week 11 in DFS
“If all of your friends jumped off of a bridge, would you do it too?” – my mother
Last week, depending on whichever DFS tournament you played in, David Johnson was roughly 50 percent owned. He was a great play based on matchup, but being the highest-priced and highest-owned running back on all major DFS sites made him somewhat fade-worthy. He performed well, posting 27 PPR points, but was outperformed by Ezekiel Elliott (41), Le’Veon Bell (34) and Ryan Mathews (28).
Personally, I (and this article) had a great week in GPPs. I recommended DeMarco Murray, Russell Wilson and Stefon Diggs. Murray posted 24 PPR points, finishing as the sixth-highest-scoring running back in PPR scoring. Wilson posted 27 fantasy points, finishing third-best at the position. Diggs dropped 29 points (despite not scoring a touchdown) and finished fourth-best among wide receivers in PPR scoring. I also loved Doug Baldwin and Antonio Brown. Brown finished first among wide receivers in fantasy points last week, and Baldwin finished third.
Needless to say, we had a phenomenal Week 10. Let’s hope we build on our success in Week 11.
Looking at Fantasy Aces’ Week 11 ownership percentages from the $3 Quick Slant Thursday-Monday GPP contest provided to us by TwoQBs.com, this week, the following players are projected to be the chalk (most highly owned): Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, Le’Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount, Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton and Martellus Bennett.
As is typical, we’ll be fading the above players on the majority of our lineups and will instead be looking at the following leverage plays (players who would benefit the most if the chalk underperforms) and contrarian plays (players under 7.5 percent owned) this week.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (6%)
Over the past two weeks, Kaepernick ranks fourth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (24.0). For the entire season, he ranks sixth in fantasy points per game (20.75). Although he’s graded out poorly as a passer in all but last week’s game, his fantasy production has been buoyed by his numbers on the ground, where he’s averaging eight carries, 57 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game. In fantasy, those numbers add up quickly, equating to a floor of roughly 7.2 fantasy points per game. This guarantees him a solid floor. I had been arguing earlier in the season that he lacks tournament upside due to his deficiencies as a passer, but his 398 yards through the air versus New Orleans has seemingly proven me wrong. For reference, that was the most passing yards New Orleans has allowed in a single game since 2014. This becomes even more impressive when considering they allowed, on average, 296.9 passing yards per game in 2015.