Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy football team preview: Chicago Bears

CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 02: Zach Miller #86 celebrates with Cameron Meredith #81 of the Chicago Bears after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter of a game against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field on October 2, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

The Bears enter 2017 with some intriguing young talent on their roster. They also have some major question marks, including the ever-important quarterback position. Now in his third year with the team, John Fox is in a pivotal year following 6-10 and 3-13 records in his first two seasons at the helm. Dowell Loggains is back for a second season at offensive coordinator. Loggains offense has elements of the West Coast offense with quick passing and stretching the field horizontally.

Team Offensive Stats

CHI Rank Lg Avg
Snaps/Gm 60.8 30 65.3
Pace (Sec/Sn) 24.37 16 24.28
Run % 39.1% 18 39.8%
Pass % 60.9% 15 60.2%
% Leading 26.4% 27 36.0%

Quarterback

With the Jay Cutler era over, the Bears address the quarterback in free agency, signing Mike Glennon. They also went out and address the position in the draft with the second-overall selection of Mitch Trubisky out of North Carolina. Despite the premium pick – which they traded up for – the Bears have named Glennon the starter. In four years in the NFL, Glennon has dropped back to pass just 704 times. To his credit he has a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 2:1 with 30 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. We only really saw a significant amount of Glennon in his rookie season when he played in 13 games. He had no top-10 fantasy finishes and ended up as the No. 26 fantasy quarterback. He isn’t a good bet to place any higher this year.

Trubisky sat behind Marquise Williams for the first two years of his college career, but he exploded as the starter in 2016 completing 68 percent of his passes for 3,748 yards and 30 scores with just six interceptions. The biggest question for Trubisky entering the NFL is how he’ll fare in a pro offense after he ran nearly all of his plays out of the shotgun with a lot of run-pass options last year. Trubisky may end up surfacing on the QB1 radar down the road, but he’s unlikely to be a fantasy option in the near future.

Vacated Touches

 
2016 Touches % Vacated  
Carries 366 2.5%
Targets 533 27.0%
Total 899 17.0%

Running backs

At this time last year, few people, if anyone, thought Jordan Howard would go on to finish second in the league in rushing yards, but that’s exactly what he did on his way to a 10th-place fantasy finish among running backs. While that certainly sounds solid, keep in mind that he didn’t take over as the starter until Week 4. From that point on, he actually ranked sixth at the position, and was one of just eight running backs to average more than 20 touches per game over that span. Howard was especially excellent after contact, averaging 3.0 yards per attempt. The Bears offensive isn’t likely to do him any favors this year, but Howard should still see plenty of volume. That coupled with his abilities as a runner place Howard squarely in the mid-range of the RB1s.

Beyond Howard, the Bears have an unimpressive collection of backups that includes 2016 fantasy bust Jeremy Langford, Rams castoff Benny Cunningham, and undersized rookie Tarik Cohen. It’s tough to pinpoint a true handcuff out of this bunch. We’re more likely to see a committee situation if Howard went down with an injury.

Rushing Stats

CHI Rank Lg Avg
YPC 4.57 6 4.18
YCo/Att 2.65 7 2.43
YBCo/Att 1.92 9 1.76
Inside Zone 27.1% 13 26.0%
Outside Zone 43.7% 5 27.7%
Power 7.6% 25 9.5%
Man 5.5% 22 15.0%

Wide receivers

Cameron Meredith is a great example of how the NFL can look a lot different in the middle of the season than it did when fantasy drafts are going on. Meredith wasn’t even a blip on the radar back in August last year, but he went on to catch 66 balls for 894 yards and four scores. For the season, he ended up as the No. 39 fantasy wide receiver, but he had seven weeks with WR2-or-better production, including two top-10 weeks. Meredith has intriguing fantasy upside, but his value is somewhat capped in the WR4 range due to the Bears’ deficiency at quarterback.

In addition to Meredith, Kevin White also has fantasy appeal, especially where he’s going in the late rounds of fantasy drafts. White entered the NFL raw from a football standpoint, but oozing with athletic upside. He’s yet to fully materialize, though, due to the injuries that have plagued his playing career. That being said, he did see 34 targets over the first four games last season. Only 14 receivers saw more over that span. White has reportedly worked on his running form to help curb the injury issues, but there have also been rumblings of confidence issues. Regardless, his high ceiling is worth a dart in the late rounds of fantasy drafts this year.

The Bears also brought in Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton, and Victor Cruz this offseason to have a nominal competition for the team's slot role. Wright is the likely candidate to win the job as long as he's healthy, but there isn't much fantasy value in any of that group.

Wide Receiver Sets

% Rank Lg Avg Throw% Rk Lg Avg
2-Wide 29.4% 8 24.5% 37.1% 24 45.0%
3-Wide 61.5% 8 55.5% 73.4% 2 66.1%
4-Wide 0.1% 29 2.9% 100.0% 1 81.6%

Tight end

We aren’t quite sure how this tight end group will shake out at this point in training camp. Veteran tight end Zach Miller reportedly needs a strong training camp to keep his spot on the Bears’ 53-man roster. Miller is entering his age-33 season and missed six games to injury last season. The Bears also brought in veteran Dion Sims in free agency and drafted rookie Adam Shaheen in the second round. The position is still very much up for grabs, but it’s unlikely we’ll get much fantasy value here. However, Shaheen has plenty of appeal in dynasty leagues. He’s still developing as a player, but his basketball background and massive size bode well for future fantasy productivity.

Personnel Groupings

% Rank Lg Avg Throw% Rk Lg Avg
11 61.4% 7 53.5% 73.4% 2 33.5%
12 22.8% 4 15.6% 39.6% 26 50.2%
21 6.5% 15 6.9% 28.6% 24 62.5%

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