Each week in this space, we’ll be taking a look back at Sunday’s games to find five of the most important stats for fantasy football owners heading into the following week. With 12 of 13 games from Week 9 in the books, here are the five stats you need to know:
1. The Los Angeles Rams ranked last in the league in points scored per game last season (14.0, 2.5 points below next-closest), and rank best in the league this season (32.9).
Jared Goff averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game and a passer rating of 63.6 in starts under Jeff Fisher. Under Sean McVay, this season, those numbers climb to 17.5 and 97.9, respectively. In games Kirk Cousins started with Sean McVay calling the plays (2015-2016), Cousins averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game and a passer rating of 99.3. In all other starts, he averages 17.7 fantasy points per game and a passer rating of 88.5.
In 16 games last season, Todd Gurley totaled 200.2 PPR fantasy points. Already this season, Gurley has nearly reached that total with 191.4 fantasy points in just eight games. As we highlighted this offseason, Gurley's 2016 season ranked fifth-worst of 320 qualifying (min. 275 carries) running back seasons in yards per carry (3.18), but we were optimistic regarding his fantasy potential this season, following the departure of head coach Jeff Fisher. On that list of 320 running back seasons, four of the 12 worst yards per carry seasons came from a Jeff Fisher-coached running back.
Although there are other variables at play, like Andrew Whitworth and Fisher’s sub-mediocre coaching career, McVay deserves serious credit for turning this team around.
2. Last season, Mike Evans was the only receiver with a target market share greater than 30 percent (31.0 percent). This season, Deshaun Watson targeted DeAndre Hopkins on 35.9 percent of his throws. Since he entered the league, Tom Savage has targeted Hopkins on 35.7 percent of his throws.
In a soft matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (without Vontae Davis), Hopkins saw 16 targets, catching six for 86 yards and a score. While the dropoff in efficiency from Watson to Savage is massive, volume should still be there to keep him afloat as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 (at worst) the rest of the way.
There are reports that the Texans have considered signing Colin Kaepernick following Watson’s injury. While Kaepernick is likely the more capable quarterback, I’d argue this would actually put a greater dent into Hopkins’ fantasy value than Savage starting. Last season, once Kaepernick took over as the starter for San Francisco (Week 6) until the end of the season, Jeremy Kerley was the team’s leading fantasy wide receiver, ranking a lowly 75th in fantasy points per game at the position.
3. On Sunday, with Brock Osweiler under center, Demaryius Thomas totaled eight receptions for 70 yards and a score on 12 targets. Emmanuel Sanders, meanwhile, totaled just one catch for 30 yards and zero touchdowns on five targets.
Much like with Hopkins and Savage, despite Osweiler being a bottom-tier starting quarterback, Thomas may actually be better off with Osweiler than Trevor Siemian, with the reverse being true for Sanders. Prior to this week, here are their splits by quarterback (over the past three seasons) in games both receivers have played:
4. Russell Wilson currently ranks behind only Deshaun Watson (RIP) in fantasy points per game (23.4). From 2011 to 2015, no team passed less frequently (31.2 times per game) or ran the ball more frequently (31.4) than Seattle. Since then, offensive play-caller Darrell Bevell has hit new highs during his tenure in Seattle in passing plays per game, as well as lows in rushing plays per game.
Wilson was one of the most obvious positive regression candidates in recent memory. He played with a knee brace on from Week 4 until the playoffs last season, averaging 2.9 rushing fantasy points per game less than his prior career average. He also hit career-lows in touchdown percentage (3.8, prior average of 6.1) and passer rating (92.6, prior average of 101.7). It was the first time in his career, in which he did not rank top-five in fantasy points per dropback (he ranked 18th). This season, we’re getting Wilson’s typical levels of efficiency (fifth in fantasy points per dropback), while also seeing a surplus of volume that has since been absent throughout his career. As Seattle’s running backs continues to struggle (3.25 yards per carry on 160 attempts), Wilson should remain as one of fantasy’s elite options, and it would not surprise me if he finishes the year as the highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy.
5. For the first time this season, Alvin Kamara saw as many opportunities (targets plus carries) as Mark Ingram (17). In PPR leagues this week, he outscored Ingram 32.2 to 8.9.
In last week’s article, we highlighted the Saints backfield as one with a long history of production able to sustain multiple fantasy-viable options. This week, the focus is on the specific usage between these two backs. Over the previous four weeks, Ingram out-touched Kamara 102 to 55, but the usage was far more even this week following Ingram’s two-fumble-performance in Week 9.
Part of Kamara’s usage may have been matchup-related, considering he came into the week leading all running backs in targets per route run (32 percent) and percentage of routes lined up as a wide receiver (42 percent), up against a Tampa Bay defense ranking 11th-best in yards per carry allowed (3.7), but 28th in opposing passer rating (98.3). Or, it could have been directly related to those two fumbles.
The last time Ingram fumbled twice over the span of two weeks, he was forced into a near-even running back split with Tim Hightower. From Week 8 until the end of last season, Ingram saw only five carries more than Hightower, despite outgaining him by 248. Payton overlooked Hightower’s inferior yards per carry average over this stretch (4.0 to Ingram’s 6.0) and stuck with the near-even committee, despite fantasy owners’ better judgement.
Among 63 qualifying running backs this season, Kamara ranks 21st in PFF grade, first in yards per carry (6.0), third in yards after contact per attempt (3.5), and 16th in yards per target average. Ingram, meanwhile, ranks 55th, 15th, 26th, and 45th, respectively. While it’s too early to tell why, or if this trend will continue (Kamara fumbled in Week 9 as well), it is something to monitor moving forward.
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