It’s Week 17 and you’re in your fantasy championship panicking over who to start this week. If that’s the case, then I only have one piece of advice for you – lobby your commissioner to change your fantasy championship to Week 16! If Todd Gurley and Alex Smith carried you to the promised land, so it’s not fair that you’re now heading into the most important week of your fantasy season wondering if you should be starting Malcolm Brown and Patrick Mahomes instead.
In any case, it’s too late now, so here’s who I’m starting and sitting in Week 17.
Start
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers (@ LA Rams) – Garoppolo just dropped 22.0 fantasy points on Jacksonville last week — the most by any quarterback this season. Since being named the starter four weeks ago, Garoppolo ranks as our second-highest-graded passer and ranks third in passing yardage. This week he gets set to play a Rams defense with nothing on the line, and without Aaron Donald and maybe a few other starting players on defense.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland) – Since 2014, Roethlisberger averages 23.3 fantasy points per game at home — the most of any quarterback over this stretch. The Browns rank last in opposing passer rating, second-worst in fantasy points per dropback, third-worst in pressures per dropback, and worst in fantasy points per game over expectation (over the last five weeks and over the course of the full season). The Steelers will be without star wideout Antonio Brown, and there’s a chance Roethlisberger might get benched late in the game if New England is trouncing the Jets, but still, you’re starting him.
Backup running backs now starting – Stealing a line from an older article, “Depleted backfields create unique opportunities with minimal competition for sometimes marginal athletes to far exceed their potential and reach elite fantasy heights.” Just over the past two seasons, we've seen eight different running backs who were held under 100 carries for the season still finish with at least 20 fantasy points in Week 17. The combination of a lack of competition for touches as well as “fresh legs” against worn-out defenses can make non-household names RB1s in Week 17. This has already been the case with Kenyan Drake over the past few weeks, with Damien Williams out. If Melvin Gordon is out (ankle injury), Joe Mixon is out (ankle injury), DeMarco Murray is out (knee injury), and Todd Gurley is benched (rest), I’d consider moving all of Branden Oliver, Giovani Bernard, Derrick Henry, and Malcolm Brown to at least the high-end RB2 range in my rankings.
Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati) – Despite being stuck in what’s mostly a timeshare, Collins still ranks eighth among running backs in expected fantasy points over the past six weeks of the season. At home, as 10-point-favorites, against a Cincinnati defense ranking bottom-three in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (over the past five weeks and over the course of the full season), Collins is a low-end RB1 this week.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (@ Atlanta) – McCaffrey ranks 10th among running backs in expected fantasy points per game and 11th in actual fantasy points per game this season. Although he’s seen an uptick in rushing usage (and efficiency, ranking 12th-best in yards per carry since Week 9), his receiving outputs still make up 75 percent of his total fantasy points this season. With that in mind, he draws a dream matchup against an Atlanta defense allowing the second-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, after allowing the most last season.
Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers (@ Detroit) – Williams disappointed for fantasy owners last week, but still finished as one of only four running backs to play on at least 90 percent of his team’s running back snaps. He ranks eighth among running backs in expected fantasy points over the last five weeks of the season, and draws a Lions defense ranking bottom-five in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (over the past five weeks and over the course of a full season). With Aaron Jones not expected to play, I have Williams as a low-end RB1.
Wayne Gallman, RB, New York Giants (vs. Washington) – Gallman is in play as a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues this week. Over the past three weeks he’s totaled 30 carries and 21 targets, ranking 10th among running backs in expected fantasy points per game. The matchup is strong as well, with the Redskins allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston) – At age 34, Gore is just 139 rushing yards shy of his 10th 1,000 rushing yard season – a feat that has only ever been accomplished by four running backs. It’s possible Indianapolis tries hard to help Gore reach this benchmark, but even if not, the volume should be good. Gore ranks fifth in carries since Week 5, and Houston ranks fifth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game over the last five weeks. He’s a mid-range RB2 this week.
Marquise Goodwin, WR, San Francisco 49ers (@ LA Rams) – Goodwin caught just three passes for 37 yards last week, but that’s not necessarily a disappointing outcome, considering he was running the majority of his routes against Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye – two of our top-five-graded cornerbacks this season. Over the three weeks prior, he averaged 11.0 targets per game and 106.3 receiving yards per game. He has a much softer draw this week, against a Rams defense likely to be resting at least a few of their top defensive starters.
Roger Lewis, WR, New York Giants (vs. Washington) – You might not be able to tell by looking at his fantasy outputs, but Lewis has seen the best workload of any wide receiver over the past three weeks, totaling a league-high 32 targets and 60.3 expected fantasy points over that stretch. Despite the poor efficiency and middling matchup, I’m starting Lewis as a mid-range WR3 this week, and may bump him higher if Evan Engram or Sterling Shepard sits out.
Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Redskins (@ NY Giants) – Doctson saw a season-high 25.4 expected fantasy points last week, which was also the second-most by any player in Week 16. Doctson’s yardage totals have been underwhelming, topping 75 yards just once this season, but he does rank eighth-best at the position in expected touchdowns. Up against a Giants defense without Janoris Jenkins, Landon Collins, or Eli Apple, he’s a good bet to break that threshold if he sees similar volume (13 targets) in Week 17.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (@ Tampa Bay) – Thomas played on a season-low snap count last week, dealing with a hamstring injury, but still caught four of five targets for 66 yards. This week he draws a Tampa Bay defense ranking worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and third-worst to opposing WR1s. Despite injury concerns, if he’s active you’re playing him.
Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Tennessee) – Over the past four weeks of the season, Cole ranks third and Westbrook ranks 20th among wide receivers in fantasy points. The matchup this week appears strong as well, with Tennessee allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers. The one concern is that Jacksonville has a severely depleted wide receiving corps due to injuries, and the team has little incentive to play their starters this week, despite head coach Doug Marrone’s assurances otherwise. As it stands, I’ll be starting both as low-end WR3s unless we hear anything contrary to Marrone’s earlier promises.
Antonio Gates, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Oakland) – Gates ran a route on 35 of Philip Rivers’ 40 dropbacks last week, turning eight targets into six receptions for 81 yards and a score. The Chargers are fighting for a playoff spot, while Oakland is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills (@ Miami) – Clay has seen 19 targets the past two weeks, and draws a Miami defense allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to enemy tight ends. Buffalo is still fighting for a playoff spot, and I’d suspect they lean heavy on Clay yet again, given the matchup.
Desperation tight end – If you’re absolutely desperate for a tight end this week, I’d consider the Giants’ Rhett Ellison if Evan Engram can’t suit up. Washington has ranked bottom-six in fantasy points per game to tight ends in two consecutive seasons, and Ellison posted a 4-60-0 line on seven targets after Engram left last week’s game in the first quarter. If Engram does play, I also like the idea of Kansas City’s Demetrius Harris up against a Denver defense ranking fourth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game. Still, neither are better than a mid-range TE2 this week.
Sit
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (@ Philadelphia) – Prescott averages just 13.0 fantasy points per game since Week 10, which ranks a lowly 36th-best (yes, 36th-best) over this span. Not only has Prescott played atrociously, but he’s unlikely to play for the entirety of Week 17, instead conceding snaps to rookie Cooper Rush. He’s an easy “sit” this week.
Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears (@ Minnesota) – Howard has been fairly boom-or-bust this season, with two games over 20 fantasy points and six games under 10. This feels like another “bust” week, up against a Minnesota Vikings defense (at home) that ranks best in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams (vs. San Francisco) – Well, this one is easy. He’s not going to play – so don’t start him. Keep an eye on other potential starters who might get benched in favor of extra rest, including Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Jay Ajayi, Ezekiel Elliott, etc.
Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (@ LA Chargers) – 1) Cooper is hurt, dealing with a high ankle sprain. 2) Cooper has just one game with at least 70 receiving yards, but also eight games with fewer than 40 yards receiving. 3) Cooper is likely to be shadowed by Casey Hayward, our top-graded cornerback, who is posting a league-best 25.2 opposing passer rating since Week 7.
Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams (vs. San Francisco) – San Francisco ranks sixth-worst in fantasy points per game and last in fantasy points per target to opposing outside wide receivers. They also rank fourth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. That being said, he’s too risky to start this week with Sean Mannion under center, and the potential for Woods (or Cooper Kupp or Sammy Watkins) to be pulled from the game at any time.
Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. New Orleans) – I'm officially done with Brate. He's averaging just 18.6 receiving yards per game over his last eight games. He’s dealing with hip and knee injuries, but should, hypothetically, see a larger role with O.J. Howard sidelined. Still, the matchup is terrible up against a Saints defense allowing the fewest receptions and fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends. If you’re forced to start him, pray he scores a touchdown.
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