Fantasy News & Analysis

Week 4 breakout candidates and potential projection-beaters

NASHVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 10: Eric Decker #87 of the Tennessee Titans runs toward Karl Joseph #42 of the Oakland Raiders at Nissan Stadium on September 10, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)

Using PPO data to identify plus matchups once again proved to be a huge success in Week 3 — even though the week was, by and large, a blindside shot to the entire fantasy industry.

We’re back at it in Week 4 to identify some more players who are in prime spots to put up big numbers.

We might only be three weeks into the season, but the numbers add up fast when looking at opportunity. Consider this: NFL players have already run a combined 16,550 pass routes this year.

Below some players that are prime to break out in Week 4, according to the PPO data. (To see individual player PPO scores on a weekly or season-long basis, check out the Fantasy Stats section in our Tools lab.)

Running backs

Thursday night could be a big game for Tarik Cohen. His 96 snaps aren’t far off from Jordan Howard’s 110 (Howard could also have a big game, for what it’s worth), but this game has Cohen game-script written all over it. Cohen’s 24 receptions rank first among all running backs, and the Packers have given up the sixth-most PPO to opposing wideouts through the air.

Christian McCaffrey is primed for a good game against the Patriots in Week 4. New England has given up 0.31 PPO to running backs through the air, second-most in the NFL. McCaffrey’s 22 targets rank second among all running backs and he’s one of the few good offensive players left in Carolina.

I’m expecting big things from Leonard Fournette this week. He faces a Jets squad that has given up 0.80 PPO on the ground this year, worst in the league. Fournette has 57 attempts (third-most) and a rushing score in each game this year.

Bilal Powell is another good option. Jacksonville has given up 0.77 PPO to enemy backs on the ground this year, third-most in the league. Matt Forte might miss this game, which would set Powell up for a big role. I can’t believe I’m recommending two running backs in a Jaguars-Jets game, but here we are.

LeSean McCoy is in a blow-up spot against the Falcons. The Falcons are weak against both rushers (0.24 PPO given up, seventh-most) and pass-catching backs (0.73 PPO given up, also seventh-most). McCoy is both of those things. He’s had two straight off games, but this is a prime rebound spot.

Wide receivers

Odell Beckham Jr. should build on his strong Week 3 with a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who gave up a league-high 0.34 PPO last week. Brent Grimes was out of the equation last week, but OBJ is better than anyone the Bucs can throw his way. He caught nine of 13 targets for 79 yards and two scores last week while playing 82.9 percent of the offensive snaps. He seems recovered from the ankle injury, and if anything, his playing time will increase in Week 4.

The Houston Texans are no longer a pass defense to fear. They have given up 0.28 PPO to enemy receivers. Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker are in good spots this week with Corey Davis still sidelined. Decker has done nothing (10-of-18 for 91 yards and no scores), and I’m almost ready to say this is a now-or-never spot for him.

Alshon Jeffery should find room to roam against the Chargers, who have given up 0.28 PPO to opposing wideouts and are now without Jason Verrett. Jeffery’s 28 targets rank tied for fourth-most in the league.

The Eagles remain weak against wideouts, having surrendered 0.24 PPO to opposing receivers, seventh-most. Keenan Allen is off to a strong start and that should continue in Week 4. Allen’s 27 targets are tied for seventh-most in the NFL.

Xavier Rhodes shuts down enemy No. 1s on the outside, but overall, the Vikings have given up 0.25 PPO to opposing wideouts. Rhodes is most likely to shadow Marvin Jones, which would leave Golden Tate free to work against slot man Terence Newman, an easily winnable battle for Tate.

Tight ends

(Before we begin on tight ends, you should know we have a new TE matchup chart!)

The Giants are miserable against tight ends, giving up 0.31 PPO to the position so far this year, third-most in the NFL. This could be a big week for O.J. Howard or Cameron Brate. Through two games, Brate has seven targets and Howard has four. Brate is the better bet here based on that usage, but either one could have a big game.

The Washington Redskins have given up 0.28 PPO to opposing tight ends, fourth-most in the NFL. Up next is Travis Kelce on Monday night. Kelce has the second-best individual tight end matchup of the week, according to our new TE matchup chart.

Martellus Bennett hasn’t had a big game as a member of the Packers yet, but that could change in Week 4. His 19 targets rank fifth among tight ends so far this year, and the Bears have given up 0.23 PPO to enemy tight ends,

The Broncos have been friendly to opposing tight ends this year, giving up 0.24 PPO to the position, ninth-most in the league. Jared Cook caught on with the Raiders last week, and he has been extremely efficient, catching 13 of 15 passes (87 percent catch rate) for 124 yards and a score. Look for him to keep rolling in Week 4.

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