The next NFL game on our schedule is a regular-season game. I repeat: The next game is the real deal.
The 2017 preseason wrapped up Thursday night, and the fantasy football world now turns its attention to Week 1. Most drafts have been completed — although some last-minute drafts are still scheduled — and people are now deciding who to play in Week 1.
We’re closing out the preseason with a final mailbag to answer some of our readers’ questions in more detail than Twitter’s 140-character count allows.
Don’t forget: Our subscribers are using the rankings, real-time draft tools, and customized projections available with a PFF Edge or PFF Elite subscription.
@LoechnerNFL Have Coleman, Duke, Perine on my bench. Is it worth picking up Bell's handcuff? Heard he's a stud. #AskPFF
— The Nut (@brloman) August 31, 2017
Le’Veon Bell’s former handcuff — DeAngelo Williams — had been a lucrative fantasy asset over the past two seasons, but Williams is no longer on the team, and Bell’s backup situation is a little more complicated now.
Most people expected James Conner to be the primary back behind Bell, but Conner worked behind Knile Davis throughout the preseason. Conner is still probably the “handcuff” to own, but it’s not a set-in-stone situation, and it makes it hard to definitively say that you should own Conner.
I do fully support the idea of taking Conner at the end of a draft or stashing him at the end of your bench to start the season. If it becomes clear that he is Bell’s primary backup, then he does become a valuable asset. But as of right now, it’s entirely possible that Bell doesn’t really have just one backup, but rather a group of backups.
Tevin Coleman and Duke Johnson and perfectly acceptable bench pieces. Coleman was the No. 18 running back in standard leagues last year. He’s lining up to be a flex option this season, but another tail-end RB2 season isn’t out of the question. Johnson’s production is a little less bankable, but his usage is, and there’s always value in knowing that your player will see the field.
As for Samaje Perine, he failed to impress this preseason and he appears locked in behind Rob Kelley. Perine is still worth a stash to begin the season, but I no longer have high hopes for his 2017 outlook.
@LoechnerNFL Why is TY Hilton ADP is falling to high 3rd round…coming off top 5 production season? Similar to Dez or regression due?
— Justin Blanket (@justin_blanket) August 31, 2017
T.Y. Hilton’s falling ADP is because of Andrew Luck’s injury, and the completely lack of transparency into a timetable. Indianapolis’ sketchiness with the situation has caused fantasy owners to become wary.
Hilton could be an absolute steal if you see him going in the third round. He was the No. 5 receiving in fantasy last year in both standard and PPR leagues, and Hilton’s 1,448 yards led the NFL. People also seem to think of Hilton only as a deep threat, and while it’s true that he is a fantastic threat down the field, he did still have 91 receptions — tied for 10th most among all wideouts.
Hilton has always been underrated, and Luck’s odd situation is just giving people even more reason to shy away from him. But he’s still primed for a WR1 season — even if Luck were to miss a handful of games.
A slight dip in ADP is understandable, but if Hilton starts going outside the top 10 wideouts, you need to pounce.
If your draft is already complete, you can also reach out to the Hilton owner to see if they are starting to get cold feet.
Would you trade A brown and gurley for AJ green and gordon
— David Casey (@davidcasey07) September 1, 2017
I love Antonio Brown, but I think you’d have to side with A.J. Green and Melvin Gordon here.
Brown is the undisputed No. 1 receiver in fantasy, but Green is also an undisputed top-five option who actually led the position in points-per-game while healthy last year.
Todd Gurley is a very disputed top-10 running back, while Melvin Gordon is universally accepted as a top-five asset at the position.
I’d take the guaranteed bundle of Green and Gordon over the half-guaranteed bundle of Brown and Gurley any day.
What's your rookie running back draft order for standard league?
— Sc0tty (@robertsled) August 31, 2017
Here’s how I rank this year’s rookie running backs leading into 2017:
Hunt is No. 1 simply because he finds himself in the best situation. Andy Reid is notorious for driving one running back into the ground, which ends up being great for fantasy purposes. I have Hunt as a high-end RB2 who could flirt with RB1 status.
Fournette is exceedingly talented, but he’s on a bum offense. He should top 1,000 yards, but his touchdown upside is limited.
Mixon is clearly the best running back in Cincinnati, but it seems like it might take some time for that to be realized on the field. Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard will linger, which eats into Mixon’s value. If he were the clear-cut starter, he’d probably be No. 1 on my list here.
Cook is in a similar boat to Mixon. He should be the team’s unquestioned starter but he won’t be. He’ll be an RB2 while he shares the backfield.
McCaffrey won’t see as many rushing attempts as any of the guys listed above, but his usage in the passing game will spike his fantasy floor. If McCaffrey is used on the goal line (which is unlikely, but we did see them give him the ball inside the 10 in the preseason), then he’ll be a fantasy stud in no time.
In all, these five rookie running backs are set to be productive fantasy players in their first year. All of them are slated to have top-25 seasons at the position.
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