Fantasy News & Analysis

Our favorite prop bets for 2017

HOUSTON, TX - MAY 13: Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans runs through drills during Texans rookie camp on May 13, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

It’s almost time for the NFL regular season, which means it is time for serious preparation. In addition to fantasy prep work, which of course we’re all about in these parts, there are other ways people engage with football, you know, by putting down some hypothetical money with some hypothetical odds to recoup some hypothetical winnings…

Instead of talking in code, let’s look at it this way: Prop bets are a way for us to put our prep work into real-world planning. All-in on Leonard Fournette? Pick him for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Not a believer in the Raiders? Pick unders on Derek Carr and the team wins. That sort of thing.

Below are some of our analysts’ favorite prop bets for the 2017 season. After a whole offseason of research and analysis, this is where they feel the best hypothetical returns can be attained. In some cases, it’s not about the player most likely to win the crown or lead the league; it’s about players where the odds make the most sense to maximize return. (Most lines are from Bovada, with some from 5dimes and BetUS.)

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Kareem Hunt +3300

Since the year 2000, the Offensive Rookie of the Year winners have included seven quarterbacks, seven running backs, and three wide receivers. With no quarterbacks at this time slated to start for their teams, it makes sense to take a look at what appears to be a very deep group of rookie running backs. Players like Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey obviously will have the highest odds, but a sneaky pick would be Hunt of the Chiefs.

At the time of this writing, Hunt is +3300 to win the award on Bovada and the Chiefs current backfield situation isn't set in stone. Even if he doesn't end up taking home the hardware, Hunt will surely see enough of a role with the Chiefs that his current odds will look like a bargain. – Aaron Resnick

DeShone Kizer +1600

Quarterbacks have won this award seven times since 2004, more than the other positions combined in that span. Oddsmakers favor Deshaun Watson, but it’s tough to ignore the steady barrage of praise that’s been heaped upon Kizer since the start of Cleveland Browns offseason workouts. If he can win the job, Kizer will operate behind a highly rated OL under renowned “QB Whisperer” Hue Jackson. – Mike Castiglione

Christian McCaffrey +550

The Panthers could be the toughest offense to match up against in 2017. If McCaffery is utilized correctly, he should feast on making defenders miss – linebackers in particular – just like he did his sophomore year in college in 2015, when he forced 85 combined missed tackles. – Ryan Smith

Defensive Player of the Year

Vic Beasley +4000

NFL fans and media love sacks, and no one had more than Beasley last season. Sure, his overall PFF grade of 77.7 was merely average, due largely to his poor run defense (his 43.6 run-defense grade ranked just 70th among edge defenders with at least 150 snaps), but the writers who decide such things admittedly aren't relying on our grades and metrics to make such decisions (yet?). On defense, the sack is king, and there is little reason to believe Beasley won't exceed last year's total of 16. The Atlanta offense is still a juggernaut, meaning opponents will be playing from behind against the Falcons, and forced to pass, likely more often than their preferred splits. This means more pass-rush reps for Beasley, and now with talented rookie Takkarist McKinley likely rushing opposite him, offenses likely won't be able to roll protection to Beasley as much as desired. Playing with the lead obviously should mean more wins as well, and we all know how much the NFL media loves a good winner.

The final element that makes this bet enticing is its value. At 40/1, bettors are getting much better bang for their buck than the 2.5/1 odds they're getting on J.J. Watt, who is coming back off injury. As a personal preference, if I am going to make a long-term bet on something as difficult to predict as defensive MVP, I want the potential payout to be worth the investment; Beasley's odds present just such an opportunity. If he can surpass last season's sack number, which assuming he remains healthy is in my opinion very possible, Beasley should be enough in the public consciousness to warrant strong consideration for defensive player of the year, and a solid payout for savvy preseason bettors. – Josh Liskiewitz

Most rushing yards

Isaiah Crowell +5000

While he isn’t the most likely rushing champ, his top-three offensive line, historically run-committed (when game scripts allow) head coach, and attractive odds combine for an interesting wager. Crowell had the 18th-most rushing attempts during the first three quarters last year, and the 33rd-most in the fourth. An improved Browns team spikes both totals. Pat Thorman

Todd Gurley +2000

Last year was a rough downward turn for Gurley and the Los Angeles Rams, but the situation around him has vastly improved. The weapons around quarterback Jared Goff have gotten better to the point where Los Angeles' passing attack should be threatening enough to opposing defenses to keep them honest, and Gurley has the talent to bounce back in a major way. – Alejandro Chavez

Most receiving yards

Sammy Watkins +5000

Watkins’ odds are excellent for a receiver whose career yards-per-reception average (16.1) is higher than what any wideout who finished top-20 in yards posted last year other than Julio Jones (17.0). He simply needs to stay healthy, as the targets are readily available in Buffalo. In the 10 games he’s seen double-digit targets, Watkins averaged 112 yards. Pat Thorman

A.J. Green +1800

Julio Jones is the odds-on favorite here, and for good reason. But sign me up for Green and his +1800 line, which is four times the bang for your buck you’ll get with Jones (+450). Green’s career 16-game pace is 150 targets for 89-1,327-9; his 16-game pace last year was 160 targets for 106-1,542-6, which would have topped T.Y. Hilton’s league-high 1,448 yards. – Mike Castiglione

Most regular-season interceptions

Eli Manning +550

Manning may have only had 17 interceptions in 2016, but his 25 turnover-worthy plays on throws (INTs that were his fault or dropped INTs) meant that he had some luck that might go the other way in 2017. – Ryan Smith

Most passing yards

Kirk Cousins +1600

Cousins finished third in passing yards and was one of only three quarterbacks who averaged over 300 yards per game (307.3) – 18.2 behind Drew Brees for first. Over his last nine games, Cousins averaged 358 yards per contest. The Redskins backfield is unsettled beyond pass-catcher Chris Thompson and Cousins’ odds are attractive. Pat Thorman

Most interceptions

Joe Flacco +2000

Flacco dropped back more than any quarterback last season and posted his best interception rate in five years (2.2 percent). However, he was under pressure at the 24th-highest rate while enjoying our fourth-highest-graded pass-blocking. Three linemen are gone, all of whom were above-average pass-blockers. Flacco threw the eighth-most interceptions while under pressure. Pat Thorman

Matt Ryan UNDER 32.5 touchdowns +110

Two things make this a favorable bet for me. First, Ryan’s only thrown for more than 32 touchdowns once in his career, last year. But more importantly, Kyle Shanahan, his offensive coordinator and overseer of that career season, isn’t there anymore. – Michael Moore

Andrew Luck UNDER 32.5 touchdown passes +135

Luck is entering his sixth season, and in that time he’s topped 31 touchdowns once, back in 2014. For his career, he’s averaged 1.89 touchdown passes a game, a rate of barely over 30 per 16 games. And that is all predicated on Luck playing 16 games, which, while still the Colts’ outward plan, is looking less likely, with Luck on the preseason PUP list as he recovers from shoulder surgery. If Luck is active from Week 1, this bet is still a reasonable option. If he starts the season on the PUP, it’s a lock from the jump. – Daniel Kelley

Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the playoffs? Yes +195

PFF’s top-ranked offensive line and third-ranked front-seven heading into 2017 is due for an uptick in wins based on our grading from last year. If the secondary can be masked by a fierce pass-rush like it was early last season and Carson Wentz takes a step forward, look out for the Birds. – Ryan Smith

Any other QB starts for Texans Week 1 +250

By “other,” this bet presumes Tom Savage is the Houston starter. Well, if the Texans don’t start Deshaun Watson in Week 1, there might be a riot. The incumbent Savage has yet to throw a touchdown in 92 career pass attempts, which is probably why Houston traded up for Watson in the first place. Houston is built to win now and there is no time to waste. – Michael Moore

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