What will it take to win $1 million — or some other big top prize — on DraftKings this week? Well, not much, really: A great lineup and a stroke of luck.
We’ll try to help you build that great tournament lineup. As for the luck, you’re on your own.
Below you’ll find my optimal DraftKings lineup for Week 11’s main slate — tournament edition.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,500)
The Cleveland Browns have given up more passing touchdowns than any other team this year (25). They have ceded at least two passing scores in all but one game (against the Jets), and they have given up at least three passing scores in six of their past eight contests. Roethlisberger has pretty gnarly home-road splits — and this is a road game — but we still have the Steelers projected to win by over a touchdown in the third-highest scoring contest of the weekend.
RB1: Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,800)
It’s a Steelers stack. As bad as the Browns have been against the pass, they have almost been worse against the run. They have ceded 12 rushing scores (tied for second most in the league) and have seen 283 rushing attempts against them — most in the league. Bell got off the touchdown schneid last weekend, and he’s as good of a bet as any for a multi-touchdown game yet again this week.
And even if he somehow doesn’t score, in the full point PPR format on DraftKings, Bell has an impressive enough floor to salvage the pick. He has recorded 45 receptions so far this year — most among all running backs, and well ahead of second-place David Johnson (40). And don’t forget that Bell missed the first three games of the season.
RB2: James Starks, Green Bay Packers ($4,200)
According to Fantasy Aces ownership rates for Week 11, Starks is only 2 percent owned. I’m not sure he’ll be that low on DraftKings on Sunday, but it’s fair to assume his ownership rates will be suppressed. He’s also the same price as C.J. Prosise on DraftKings this week, and Prosise will certainly be a popular pick. But Starks has the opportunity for a breakout game against the Redskins this week, a team that has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per opportunity to running backs this year.
WR1: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers ($9,500)
And our Steelers stack continues. Not too much needs to be said about Brown, as any time you can put him in a lineup, you don’t really need to explain yourself. Business has been boomin’ as usual: Brown leads the league in receptions (69), he’s fourth in yards (831), second in touchdowns (7) and second in fantasy points. He has seen double-digit targets in all but two games this year, and he is coming off an insane 18-target, 14-reception game in Week 10.
WR2: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions ($5,300)
Tate has one of the best individual WR-CB matchups of the week. As Jeff Ratcliffe noted in that article, “A disappointment in the early part of the season, Tate has really turned it on with 42 targets over his last four games.” The fact Tate got off to a slow start this year will likely keep his ownership levels lower than they should be; people just still have a bad taste in their mouths. But Tate actually leads all Lions receivers in targets this year, and he has scored more fantasy points than Anquan Boldin and Marvin Jones over the past four weeks — combined.
WR3: Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns ($4,700)
Everyone is going to be in on Terrelle Pryor, but I’m going to take the pivot play here and roll with Coleman. I’m stacking the Steelers-Browns game and expecting the Browns to be down big in the second half. Coleman showed us his impressive ceiling in Week 2 when he hauled in five of seven targets for 104 yards and two scores. He hasn’t done much since returning from injury in Week 9, but then again, he has only played in four games in his career, and one of them was spectacular. Coleman has seen at least five targets in every game this year, and he possesses the ability to take it to the house on any play.
TE: Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots ($3,700)
Assuming Rob Gronkowski sits, Bennett will likely end up being one of the most popular tight end plays of the week. And at only $3,700 on DraftKings, it’s easy to see why. On the whole, the 49ers have actually been pretty solid against tight ends this year. But upon closer inspection, you’ll notice that’s because they haven’t really played many good tight ends. In fact, the only three teams with above-average tight ends San Francisco has faced — Carolina, Seattle and Dallas — have roasted them for a combined 20 catches, 278 yards and three touchdowns. With Bennett, the 100-yard bonus is in play, and he has multi-touchdown upside. This is a chalky pick, but I’m fine with it.
Flex: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($3,600)
Lockett has been a disappointment so far this year. He hasn’t scored a touchdown, and leading into Week 6, he had just eight receptions on the year. But the Seahawks offense is starting to click, and Lockett has played at least 55 percent of Seattle’s snaps in five straight games, after playing in fewer than 50 percent of the snaps in three of his first four contests. This could be his breakout week. Lockett will square off against Leodis McKelvin, who has given up the most fantasy points per route run among all projected starting corners this week.
D/ST: Dallas Cowboys ($2,600)
The Cowboys are home favorites against the slow-motion Baltimore Ravens. Joe Flacco has tossed as many touchdowns as interceptions (9), and he has been under pressure on 36 percent of his dropbacks, the 10th-highest rate in the league. When it takes Flacco at least 2.6 seconds to throw, his NFL QB rating is just 62.8, the third lowest rate in the league on such attempts. He leads only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler in that category. The Cowboys are a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of sacks and forced turnovers, but the above-average matchup, cheap price tag, and home game makes them a strong choice.
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