Narrative Street: Are Roethlisberger and Brees too bad on the road?
A couple of months ago, Narrative Street made a stop on the home/road discussion, dissecting whether or not players really do perform better when they play at home — and whether or not it’s a big enough difference to warrant consideration for fantasy purposes (mostly DFS).
We tested the narrative for all four key fantasy positions: QB, RB, WR, and TE. But we typically most often hear of home/road splits for specific quarterbacks — namely Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees.
The narrative: Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees have the most drastic QB home/road splits
It doesn’t take a genius to know that Roethlisberger and Brees do indeed have noteworthy home/road splits. So while it’s fair to mention the narrative when discussing these two players, are we putting too much emphasis on just Roethlisberger and Brees, and overlooking some other important quarterbacks who have significant home/road splits? In short, are they really that different?
Let’s find out.
I studied all quarterback production over the past five seasons (2012-2016). Most noteworthy quarterbacks studied had 2,000 (or more) pass attempts in this span with at least 15,000 total yards — so sample isn’t an issue. Players like Roethlisberger and Brees have had home/road split issues dating back well before 2012, but looking at data from last decade is fairly meaningless, and it doesn’t allow us to compare Roethlisberger and Brees to the new names in fantasy.
I made the minimum threshold 400 pass attempts thrown to include rookies like Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz. I’m not going to focus on these players, since the sample size is certainly not big enough here to draw conclusions, but I included them to see if there were any potential intriguing notes. More on that later.