Fantasy football mock drafts: Drafting during free agency

After the future fantasy players completed their combine drills, I got the bug. You know that feeling. The itch to draft my fantasy team, now.

Luckily, I work in this industry and it took me less than five minutes to find 11 other like-minded individuals that knew we had to mock draft. Yes, had to.

We started on Sunday night and finished on Friday. Little did we know that the entire league would blow up during free agency, but this is the NFL. Things change on a dime.

Each round offered up some trends and insights that you can use when evaluating your keepers or perhaps partaking in an early MFL10. We have an MFL10 primer, and I decided to set this mock up with MFL10 league settings. In fact, I would have done this as a real contest (not a mock) if I lived in a state where I could legally play. As of now, residents in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Montana, New York, Tennessee, Virginia and Washington are unable to partake. Hopefully that changes soon.

Round 1

The first round of any draft this season will have very similar players in the first round. Jordy Nelson was the only player with an ADP outside of the top 12, but Safchick was on the turn, and the ADP difference was minimal. Of course, the big difference between 2017 and 2016 will be the number of running backs that will be at the top of everyone’s draft board, regardless of format. MFL10s are full-point PPR leagues, and yet the top three picks are all running backs. David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott all outscored the top PPR wide receiver (Antonio Brown) last year in both standard and PPR formats. Get used to that look.

Rounds 2-3

The next two rounds are also very predictable, but there are a few bargains that stand out among the crowd.

First, Carlos Hyde is a bargain at 2.12. His ADP is technically lower than that, but he is the undisputed starting running back in a Kyle Shanahan offense that at this point will be helmed by Brian Hoyer. They will run. They will have to run. Mike Tagliere felt that way as well.

Scott Barrett also scored with Jay Ajayi in the third. This is another player who will enter the season as the undisputed starting running back on a team with a questionable quarterback. Sure, Ryan Tannehill isn’t as questionable as Brian Hoyer, but his ratio of 19 touchdowns to 12 interceptions isn’t going to do him or fantasy owners any favors. Barrett started the draft with Antonio Brown, Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi. It’s hard to top that trio.

Round 4-5

This is where things get interesting.

Everyone in this draft is a fantasy analyst. Everyone has “their guys.” And hey, the industry agrees on one thing, and that is to “get your guys.” And yet, there are some big reaches here, that no matter how warranted, need to be discussed.

First, we have Joe Mixon. John Sarmento (@RumfordJohnny) made this pick at 3:15 p.m. on Monday afternoon. That was before Mixon ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds on Wednesday during his Pro Day. There is much debate about the morality surrounding Mixon’s career, but there is no denying his raw athleticism. Sarmento probably could have landed Mixon later, but his pick in a clear indicator that analysts aren’t holding back when it comes to projecting his 2017 fantasy relevance.

Friday, the Baltimore Ravens confirmed that Kenneth Dixon will be suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Tagliere was not aware of that Monday. You should expect Dixon’s ADP to fall, not only due to his suspension, but also the Raven’s Danny Woodhead free-agency acquisition.

Ty Montgomery was a wide receiver and a running back last year. His fantasy numbers were hit or miss and he struggled with sickle cell trait. Sarmento continued his “swing for the fences” style, even though Montgomery only posted four double-digit fantasy games in 2016.

Sterling Shepard was also a bit of a reach that was of my own making. Brandon Marshall was a big-time free-agent acquisition for the Giants, but the New York Giants and Ben McAdoo are known for three-wide receiver sets. Look for Shepard to remain in the slot, where he played 86.1 percent of the time.

On a positive note, industry mocks are notoriously low on quarterbacks. Jen Ryan took Aaron Rodgers at 5.06. That was a steal, regardless of how anyone feels about waiting on a quarterback. If you do a MFL10 today, it’s highly unlikely that you would see that.

Rounds 6-8

Cam Newton in the sixth round is unnecessary. Tod Burros commented right after this pick that he believes Newton bounces back in a big way this year. That may be true, although I would like to see some improvement in training camp on his league-low 65.4-percent accuracy rate. Regardless, you can get Newton in the eighth or ninth rounds, so wait.

Christian McCaffrey had one of the stronger combine performances and his role as a pass-catching back and/or receiver is incredibly enticing in these middle rounds. Regardless of landing spot, his skillset can get used in a variety of ways.

Kevin White and Breshad Perriman are already making their ways onto sleeper lists and their hype is reflected in this mock. For the casual fantasy player, they look like a reach, but both Mike Tagliere and Karl Safchick are making a calculated decision based on the lack of wide receiver depth for both the Bears and the Ravens.

Rounds 9-12

Rob Kelley! Everyone forgot about Rob Kelley! I personally was stacked at running back, so I kept passing on him, but Scott Barrett does it again and finds value in the 11th round.

I’m also going to take a second and chat about the combine in a negative way. Well, not negative, per se, but with a dash of pragmatism. Mike Williams has an incredible tape. All last season he would put up GIF-worthy plays and everyone was incredibly excited for him to enter the NFL. Then he had a mediocre combine. He didn’t run the 40-yard dash, although he will run it at his pro day. Don’t let the combine steer you completely away from the tape.

Kenneth Nixon took advantage of a price decrease for Giovani Bernard. Bernard is coming off a torn ACL, but the Bengals believe he’ll be back and will avoid the PUP list at the start of next season. If Bernard is healthy, he always has a clear role in the Cincinnati offense, and that role is PPR friendly.

Rounds 13-15

The ADP numbers come from My Fantasy League’s site. They only give you the ADP for the players that are drafted in at least 5 percent of the leagues that draft on the site. Therefore, once you get down to the later rounds, there is an art to your selections, and each analyst is starting to claim his or her 2017 sleepers.

Pat Thorman took a nice PPR flyer with Shane Vereen at the end of the 15th round. Vereen tore his bicep in Week 15 and was only able to play in five games all season. However, in 2014 and 2015 he caught 52-plus passes for over 440 yards in each season. It’s a risky pick because if the Giants cut Vereen before March 13, the Giants can save $3.75 million. Time will tell.

However, Thorman could take that risk because the round before he took Vereen he drafted the solid, steady, oft-ignored Frank Gore. In the 14th round, Thorman got a running back who’s gone over 1,000 total yards every single year since 2006. You could argue that the time range that I just mentioned is exactly why you wouldn’t take him, but until Gore retires, he’s certainly worth at least a 14th-round pick.

Jeff Donavan got in on the Jack Doyle upswing that will sweep the fantasy industry now that we know the Colts resigned Doyle and traded away Dwayne Allen to the New England Patriots.

Pete Davidson (@Rotogahn) snatched up combine superstar John Ross. Look for Ross’ stock to rise continuously until after the draft.

Rounds 16-20

Once you get past the 16th round, you’re really filling in your bench based on need. There are a lot of defenses and middling tight ends in this grouping. A lot of these players will go up and down in terms of favor, so keep an eye out for depth chart changes.

Some items of note:

• Pat Thorman taking Jimmy Garoppolo as a flyer in the 19th round is something everyone should consider when doing an early MFL10. Worth a shot.
• Kenneth Nixon grabbed Jay Ajayi’s handcuff, Kenyan Drake, in the last round of the draft. He seemed to be one of the only people who considered injuries. Most people were looking for upside or running backs with defined roles, but Nixon’s thought process there was sound.
• The top of the 16th round was filled with solid, but not flashy fantasy producers like Jason Witten, Zach Miller, Robert Woods. These players will come in handy when you consider that this is a best-ball league. Even better for this format, the boom-or-bust players that many owners got for a bargain. Tavon Austin, Taylor Gabriel and Robby Anderson are examples of late-round flyers who could put up big-time points and win the league for the people who took a chance on them.
• I messed up and you can learn from me. I didn’t set my pre-draft rankings correctly and instead of drafting one defense and one tight end for my last two rounds, I drafted two tight ends. That means I only have one defense. You do not want that when you play and MFL10 because you can’t make any roster changes all season. Ugh. Do not let technology ruin you. Learn from my mistakes.
• I may have messed that up, but Jalen Richard is undervalued and a complete steal in the 17th round. If this is any indicator of the temperature around the fantasy community, you should trade low for him in all dynasty leagues. He was an undrafted prospect that over-performed. They let Latavius Murray walk, and even if he shares time with DeAndre Washington, he’s a steal at the end of the draft.

There you have it. A draft amid combine and free agency chaos. Who said there needs to be an offseason?