Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy impact of the moves at the NFL trade deadline

CHARLOTTE, NC - AUGUST 08: Kelvin Benjamin #13 of the Carolina Panthers makes a touchdown catch as Stephon Gilmore #24 of the Buffalo Bills defends during their game at Bank of America Stadium on August 8, 2014 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Traditionally, the NFL trade deadline isn’t the most active. For every Percy Harvin or Jamie Collins that has been on the move, Major League Baseball sees a dozen trades. But not in 2017. This year’s trade deadline has been the most active on record.

Below, we look at the fantasy fallout of the biggest moves of the deadline.

Benjamin dealt to Buffalo

Kelvin Benjamin was traded to Buffalo for 2018 third- and seventh-round picks prior to Tuesday’s deadline, according to Adam Schefter.

The move gives Tyrod Taylor a much-needed receiving weapon as Jordan Matthews, with all of 15 catches, is Buffalo’s leading fantasy receiver on the season. Without a big-play threat, Taylor ranks 16th in average depth of target (8.5 yards) and 20th in yards per attempt (6.9).

As for Benjamin, his 19-percent target share is on par with last season but down from his 27-percent share as a rookie. However, his 62.7-percent catch rate is a career-best, and he’s outperformed teammate Devin Funchess in both yards per route run (2.02 to 1.32) and WR rating (89.9 to 73.3). Still, the writing was perhaps on the wall, considering Benjamin had been out-snapped by the emerging Funchess, 419-378, and was coming off his lowest snap share (72.3 percent) since an injury-shortened Week 3.

Further helping Benjamin’s prospects, Buffalo’s remaining schedule also happens to be perhaps the most fantasy-friendly for a pass catcher, although he’ll need a bit of time to get acclimated. Currently the No. 21 WR in PPR scoring, Benjamin is a solid WR2 moving forward.

Meanwhile, Funchess continues his ascension and is now the bona fide No. 1 option in Carolina. He also graduates to weekly WR2 territory in fantasy. As mentioned, he was already ceding more snaps and had logged 56 targets to Benjamin’s 51. Funchess enters Week 9 the No. 29 WR in PPR scoring with room for continued improvement now that Benjamin is out of the picture. The move creates additional pass-catching opportunities for rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, along with Russell Shepard.

Ajayi traded to the Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles acquired Jay Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins Tuesday morning in exchange for a fourth-round pick. At first glance, it’s a solid get for an Eagles team with its sights set on a Super Bowl run. Needing another playmaker for Carson Wentz, Philadelphia acquires in Ajayi a 24-year-old coming off a breakout, 1,272-yard season (4.9 YPC) with eight TDs. However, while he’ll go from PFF’s No. 30-graded run-blocking team to the No. 7-graded team in that department, fantasy expectations should be kept in check.

For starters, LeGarrette Blount is still around and has been the most elusive RB in the league this season. In fact, Blount averages more yards after contact (4.0) than Ajayi has averaged altogether (3.4) this season, with Ajayi having gotten a grand total of 12 more yards before contact this season. Blount also sits among the league leaders in rushing opportunities near the goal line, although with the Eagles having converted only 2-of-12 rushing opportunities inside the 5, it’s possible that Blount cedes some of that work. Ajayi is also graded dead-last out of 54 RBs in the passing game, although he has held his own as a blocker.

Granted, Miami’s offense doesn’t compare to Philadelphia’s from top to bottom. Still, the Dolphins did have PFF’s worst run-blocking grade last year when Ajayi still managed to have a breakout season. Surely, the loss of Ryan Tannehill can’t be the sole factor leading to Ajayi’s lack of success. So, what gives? Is it the knee issues that caused his draft stock to plummet to the fifth round? Something else? Only time will tell. Keep in mind, Ajayi now has a second bye upcoming in Week 10.

As for Miami, Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams will split the work, and both are worth a speculative add. Williams has out-snapped Drake this season, 82-45, and that includes a 70-34 edge on passing plays. Figure on Drake to get more of the work on early downs, although he has yet to see more than six carries in a game since being drafted out of Alabama in the third round of 2016. It’s possible Ajayi’s departure is all that he needs to finally take off – the Dolphins wouldn’t have moved on from Ajayi if there wasn’t at least some confidence in the other backs – but we just haven’t seen any evidence at the pro level. Williams has averaged 3.3 yards on 99 career carries.

Patriots trade Garoppolo to San Francisco

The San Francisco 49ers dealt a second-round pick to the New England Patriots on Monday in exchange for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

At 0-8, the 49ers needed something to spark what’s been an abysmal offense. Garoppolo has only two career starts to his credit, but he’s been pretty impressive with 690 yards (67 percent), five touchdowns and no interceptions. In the Patriots’ preseason dress rehearsal against Jacksonville, he was 22-of-28 for 235 yards with two TDs and no picks, although some of that came against backups in the third quarter.

He’s not expected to start right away, so it’ll be C.J. Beathard for at least one more week while Garoppolo gets up to speed on Kyle Shanahan’s offense. San Francisco plays the Giants in Week 10 before getting a bye in Week 11, so it’s possible we don’t see Garoppolo until Week 12. It’s also worth noting that three of the 49ers’ final four opponents through the fantasy playoffs are currently ranked inside the top-six in PFF pass coverage grade.

The move does boost the fantasy stock of Carlos Hyde (RB9) and Pierre Garcon (WR24) down the stretch. Or at least, it keeps Hyde in the RB1 conversation and Garcon in the WR2 mix. All things considered, the move is more impactful for dynasty purposes as Shanahan looks to put the pieces in place for 2018, assuming he is still the head coach.

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