Fantasy News & Analysis

How to exploit DRAFT's differences to win their best-ball game

NEW ORLEANS, LA - DECEMBER 24: Mark Ingram #22 of the New Orleans Saints reacts after a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on December 24, 2016 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

The increasing popularity of offseason draft-only leagues has given rise to DRAFT, a slick new platform for the best-ball format. With its simplified setup and intuitive app, it’s no wonder DRAFT is quickly gaining market share among best-ball league providers. For the uninitiated, or for converts from other formats like the more well-known MFL10s, it’s worth exploring how DRAFT is unique.

The differences in MFL10s and DRAFT are most clearly reflected in ADP. DRAFT’s initial default player rankings, as well as the relative skill level of gamers who play there, have created exploitable ADP situations. It is not controversial to label early-offseason MFL10 participants among the community’s most plugged-in fantasy degenerates gamers. MFL10 ADP data is, as a result, considered to be the sharpest available.

Rules variations between DRAFT and MFL10s include, respectively, half- versus full-PPR scoring, 18 roster spots versus 20, no defenses versus defenses (usually two or three per roster), and moderately top-heavy versus winner-take-all payouts. While those differences skew ADP, and we often see touchdown-reliant players go earlier in DRAFT due to the half-PPR scoring, the dramatic fluctuations in player cost cannot be chalked up solely to rules.

Default player lists, on both sites, influence drafters and overall listed ADP – which then further influences drafters, and around we go until significant news or an Evan Silva tweet markedly changes a player’s cost. Wild ADP swings happen on occasion, but almost always on an individual player basis. Leveraging MFL10 ADP can help us formulate both general and player-specific DRAFT approaches. Overlaying PFF Fantasy’s (half-point) player rankings adds another layer of context.

General outlook

Last season’s reversal of a years-long trend toward fantasy wide receivers has dramatically affected drafting approaches in 2017. It was made more impactful by arriving on the heels of 2015’s running back apocalypse and the mainstreaming of “Zero RB.” Although 2016 almost certainly was a mirage conjured by touchdown scoring variance and well-timed health of a select few elite running backs, drafters are giving up the ghost on wide receivers – and we can clearly see this when studying DRAFT ADP.

Of the top 12 running backs, two are drafted later in DRAFT than in MFL10s, four are picked earlier, and six are roughly the same (ADP within 0.5 picks on both sites). This isn’t overly surprising or dramatic, and those who prefer trying to land a workhorse should feel free to take their shot in the first two or so rounds. Generally speaking, the running backs in this range will not get any cheaper and there are few others who profile as every-down backs. Pure “Zero RB” strategy doesn’t work without waivers anyway.

The next cohort of 12 running backs have four picked later in DRAFT — Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, and (barely) Mark Ingram. Notice a theme there? The other eight backs in the RB13-RB24 group are picked earlier. In most cases, it’s significantly earlier. Marshawn Lynch (+11.5), Mike Gillislee (+10.4), and Adrian Peterson (+21.5) fly off the board relative to MFL10s. We don’t need to repeat how MFL10s are sharper than DRAFT to know this isn’t particularly sharp.

Eight of the 12 wideouts in the WR13-WR24 range go later in DRAFT, and nine of the next 12 (WR25-WR36) are drafted later as well. Seven of the following cohort of 12 (WR37-WR48) are picked later. While there are some individual outliers, this is the sweet spot is for drafting receivers — both in terms of reduced cost and expected production when the positional pendulum swings back toward wideouts — the direction it’s been headed for many seasons.

Quarterbacks are also noticeably more expensive in DRAFT, which shouldn’t surprise us. Early-round quarterbacks are favored by more casual players, as well as drafters who play it safe – often the same group. Of the top-12 quarterbacks, 10 have higher DRAFT ADPs, with four going double-digit picks higher. Eight out of the following cohort of 12 passers are picked earlier in DRAFT. That is 18 of 24 quarterbacks, and it must be factored into a draft plan, lest we get caught in a hellish positional run and leave with Mike Glennon and Jared Goff.

On a related note, there seems to be a greater tendency for deeper positional runs in DRAFT, especially at the “onesie” positions (quarterback and tight end). Perhaps it is the influx of more casual players. Perhaps it’s only having to draft four positions instead of five (defense) or six (kicker), as in other formats. Either way, it rears its head repeatedly. Players positioned at either end of the draft must be cognizant of onesie position ADP and be sure they are covered during the long waits between picks, even if it means passing up an attractive mid-round running back or receiver. Cover your butt at the turn.

Player focus

Let’s examine several players whose DRAFT ADP stands out relative to MFL10s and the PFF Fantasy 0.5-PPR rankings.

Marshawn Lynch (+11.5 versus MFL10s, +9.1 versus PFF rank)

Lynch is a fascinating fantasy option. He has the best offensive line of his career but may not sniff 200 handoffs. The nearly full-round difference in ADP can be at least partially chalked up to touchdown expectation in the 0.5-PPE format. However, he began in that lofty neighborhood in the DRAFT default rankings, while he climbed over time in MFL10s. The PFF rankings side more with DRAFT, although caution should be taken. More in-depth thoughts on his situation can be found here.

Julian Edelman (+12.3 versus MFL10s, +19.4 versus PFF rank)

Edelman obviously loses some juice with 0.5 fewer points per reception. He finished 84th out of 130 wideouts in PPR points per target (102nd in standard), and only 7.8 percent of his point total came from touchdown scoring – not a profile we’re looking for in 0.5-PPR scoring. This is especially the case with Rob Gronkowski back – Edelman averages nearly three fewer targets per game with the tight end in the lineup over the last four years. Brandin Cooks’ arrival isn’t great news for him either.

Adrian Peterson (+21.5 versus MFL10s, +18 versus PFF rank)

Like Lynch, Peterson’s ADP is skewed not only by the touchdown-heavier format, but because DRAFT started him out in an elevated spot in the default rankings, while he had to rise throughout the offseason in MFL10s after signing in New Orleans. His age and mileage make for a risky investment, but the upside behind a top-five offensive line and scoring offense is obvious. Pairing him with Mark Ingram is easier said than done in DRAFT, considering their ADP is only 3.5 picks apart.

Latavius Murray (+28.4 versus MFL10s, +49.1 versus PFF rank)

Murray was activated from the PUP list just this week and has fallen behind rookie second-rounder Dalvin Cook. It is hard to find a rationale behind him still being picked as the 37th running back, beyond the fact that his ADP started too high and hasn’t had enough of a chance to fall to where it should be. PFF rankings peg that spot to be over four rounds later than he’s going now. He leaves a top offensive line for one that’s mediocre-at-best and is battling Jerick McKinnon for passing-down scraps behind a dynamic rookie.

Delanie Walker (+13.2 versus MFL10s, +7.1 versus PFF rank)

Walker finished as the fantasy TE5, TE5, and TE9 in the last three seasons, so a TE7 ADP doesn’t seem egregious – and it’s not. He is being picked over a round earlier in DRAFT, however. It would be surprising if he matched target totals that ranked him sixth, first, and fifth among tight ends during the last three years. The Titans added Eric Decker – who hurts Walker’s scoring area expectation – and first-rounder Corey Davis. They also project for more wins, which means more (exotic) smashmouth.

Derrick Henry (-13.1 versus MFL10s, +11.2 versus PFF rank)

Henry has been a hot-button topic, and avoiding him at a sixth- or even seventh-round price is valid. Drafting backups in hope of a starter’s injury is almost always foolish. Yet we can get him in the later parts of the eighth round in DRAFT. Add a best-ball angle, and the touchdown-leaning scoring, and Henry becomes more attractive. Throw in a top-three offensive line, improving game scripts, and a likely ramped-up workload even if DeMarco Murray stays healthy — and he almost seems cheap on DRAFT.

Dalvin Cook (-11.3 versus MFL10s, -24.7 versus PFF rank)

Cook’s DRAFT ADP is nearly a round later in than in MFL10s, and he’s going just over two rounds later than PFF has him ranked. While he has been steadily rising as positive reports pour in, he is still a relative bargain based on sharper drafts and trusted rankings. Cook has drawn praise for pass-blocking and that, coupled with Latavius Murray’s slow recovery from ankle surgery, has the rookie positioned as a feature-back favorite in a quietly strong offense with an accommodative schedule.

Ameer Abdullah (-15.8 versus MFL10s, -9.5 versus PFF rank)

Not everyone is on board the Abdullah train – an alternate opinion of him can be found here – but it’s worth noting when sharp drafters and rankers plant a flag. He is being drafted more than a round earlier in MFL10s than in DRAFT, where he is going off the board nearly a full round after where our rankers peg him. It is tough to argue against Abdullah’s talent and athleticism, and the Lions’ nominal feature back ran well early last season. He may be in the eye of the beholder, but his DRAFT price is right.

Tyler Lockett (-10.7 versus MFL10s, -20.8 versus PFF rank)

It isn’t shocking Lockett is picked in the 14th round (13th in MFL10s) after a gruesome Week 16 broken leg and an uncertain recovery. The fact he is being selected earlier in PPR-based MFL10s, where he doesn’t profile as well, is a clue he’s going too late in DRAFT. His PFF ranking also dwarfs his current cost. With Jermaine Kearse mercifully moved out of a starter’s spot (albeit in favor of Paul Richardson for now), it appears the Seahawks are intent on playing their best wideouts. That’s good for Lockett.

Tyrell Williams (-13.6 versus MFL10s, +3.6 versus PFF rank)

First-rounder Mike Williams has just started to run as he attempts to return from a herniated disk and is still, at minimum, over a month away from game readiness. It’s unlikely he will be ramped up in a new offense (and league) by then. Tyrell Williams has time before he starts to lose snaps to the rookie, if he does at all. His DRAFT ADP hasn’t risen as quickly as in MFL10s and it has nothing to do with scoring settings. It’s an exploitable inefficiency for a fantasy wideout who was 22nd-best on a per-game basis.

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