Welcome to the Week 14 Funnel Defense Report, where we examine trends in how defenses are most commonly attacked. It is meant to help narrow our focus from overall game selection, down to the “run versus pass” level. We as fantasy gamers, like NFL game planners, ideally seek paths of least resistance.
The esteemed Adam Levitan coined the term “funnel defense,” or “pass funnel defense” several years ago. It has become common parlance among DFS players and other fantasy aficionados, and refers to defenses that are simultaneously soft against the pass and stout against the run.
Identifying such characteristics is not a one-time task, as injury and performance variation create an evolving landscape. In this space we will leverage, among other resources, up-to-date PFF defensive grades and metrics to stay on top of these constant changes and difference-making fantasy trends.
(For brevity’s sake, all references to pass or run rates/percentages are in terms of neutral game situations. Unless otherwise stated, we will reference one-score situations (plus/minus seven points) to get a truer representation of game plan.)
Tennessee Titans
To say the Titans’ pass defense is a little untested is like saying Derrick Henry is a bit underused. Tennessee has had only three games against quarterbacks with a top-10 passing grade. During the last four weeks, no team has given up more yards per game to quarterbacks (281.3). Over that time, opponents pass against Tennessee at the league’s highest rate (70.4 percent), running backs produce the second-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards, and wideouts average the sixth-most fantasy points against them. The Titans seventh-graded run defense allows the fifth-fewest yards per carry.
Week 14: Blaine Gabbert, Ricky Seals-Jones, D.J. Foster, and some dude named Larry are next to enter Tennessee’s pass funnel. While it’s a mostly motley crew, there are shots to be taken. Fitzgerald is clearly the top option, as he has remained afloat late in the season for the first time in years even without Carson Palmer. Gabbert is also in play. Despite handing off more during the last month (40.4 percent versus 36.8 percent), the Cardinals still have the 10th-most pass-heavy offense during that time. Yet, their pace has slowed and the Titans move glacially, so don’t dig too deep into Arizona’s ancillary weapons.
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