We still have the entire schedule of preseason games and preseason DFS contests to wade through, but DraftKings has released its Week 1 NFL salaries, which is certainly one of the more exciting days of the offseason for us DFS nerds.
You usually only get one week to analyze the salaries and set your lineups. But leading into Week 1, you get an entire month. It’s unlike any other week, and there’s no reason not to start your initial prep work now.
Below are my first-look reactions at the Week 1 salaries on DraftKings. My opinions here are subject to change, but this is what’s in my notebook for the first week of the 2017 DFS season.
Check out the early reaction to FanDuel Week 1 salaries as well.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger is the top-priced quarterback on DraftKings, with a salary of $7,300. It’s against the Cleveland Browns, which is enticing, but it’s also a road game, which is a legitimate problem for Roethlisberger. Last year, in Cleveland, Roethlisberger threw for just 167 yards and no touchdowns. It was his second-worst outing in terms of DraftKings fantasy points during the entire regular season. I don’t think he’s worth being the top-priced quarterback in Week 1.
I can’t believe I’m typing this, but Jared Goff seems like a decent value at just $4,800. He averaged only 7.8 PPG last year, so I’m certainly not throwing all of my weight behind Goff, but this game could have an unexpectedly high point total, especially if Andrew Luck is able to play.
I will definitely have some Tyrod Taylor in Week 1. He costs just $6,200 and will be facing the New York Jets at home. He had one of his best games last year against the Jets, gaining 297 yards and tossing three touchdowns.
Running backs
Bilal Powell seems like a safe bet to exceed his salary-based value in Week 1. He costs just $4,900, only $100 more than Matt Forte. Powell can rack up the points in a hurry in the full PPR format on DraftKings, and he does have a high ceiling: He finished last season with over 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
I teared up with excitement when I saw Charles Sims at only $3,900 for Week 1. Sims will easily see a half-dozen targets and could push for double-digit rush attempts with Doug Martin suspended to begin the year.
Jay Ajayi looks underpriced at just $6,500. It’s a decent matchup against the Buccaneers, who ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of fantasy PPG given up to running backs last year. But he did just suffer a concussion in training camp, a situation that will need to be monitored.
Wide receivers
Believe it or not, but Allen Robinson sticks out as a top value on DraftKings based on PFF’s current projections, thanks to his low price tag of $5,200. However, this game has a painfully low projected total of points scored, so I’m not sure I can pull the trigger here, but it’s definitely something to consider. He could be a viable contrarian play in Week 1.
It’s always a bit risky to roll with a rookie in Week 1, but I’m going to give Corey Davis serious consideration. He’s only $4,000 and figures to be in on most snaps in what should be the highest-scoring game of the week.
On the other side of that coin is Amari Cooper, who is priced at $7,200. Cooper’s average DK price last year was over $7,300, so we can consider this a bit of a discount. And when factoring in the fact the Titans gave up the most fantasy points to opposing wideout last season — this could definitely be a game to stack. But take note: You won’t be alone if you use this strategy.
Tight ends
Zach Ertz at $3,500 immediately jumps off the page. He’s painfully inconsistent, but Washington gave up 106 receptions (second-most) and 1,100 yards (third-most) to opposing tight ends last year.
If you want to roll with a rookie tight end in Week 1, give Evan Engram some serious consideration. My guess is that most people will flock to O.J. Howard for only $100 more, but Engram will be playing the Dallas Cowboys, who gave up league-highs 120 receptions and 1,206 yards to tight ends last year.
Tyler Eifert at $4,600 stands out as a potential tournament play. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s, and he’s $1,600 cheaper than the most expensive tight end on the slate (Greg Olsen). Eifert caught five of 11 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens last year.
Defense/special teams
I know Ben Roethlisberger is bad on the road, but don’t go swinging for the fences with the Cleveland Browns D/ST even though they are minimum-priced at $2,000. Even if Roethlisberger has a bad game, Le’Veon Bell should still eat the Browns alive. The only hope would be for the Browns to score a defensive touchdown, which the Steelers only surrendered one of last year.
The Indianapolis Colts D/ST at only $2,700 against the Los Angeles Rams sticks out. They are cheap over on FanDuel, too, so maybe I’m missing something here, but it feels like any defense going against the Rams should be more expensive. The Rams were the most generous team to opposing D/STs from a fantasy perspective last year, and it wasn’t particularly close, either.
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