After a relatively uneventful start to the preseason, the NFL had some doozies for us on Friday. The fantasy landscape has been altered in multiple ways following a high-profile suspension and two wide receiver trades. Let’s take a look at the fantasy fallout:
1. Ezekiel Elliott suspended for six games
The other shoe finally dropped in this seemingly never-ending sage with the NFL announcing a six-game suspension for Dallas Cowboys RB Elliott for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. The league added that any other violations could result in more suspension time or even banishment. An appeal is expected, which needs to be filed within the next three days. A subsequent appeal hearing would then be scheduled within the next 10 days. If the appeal process drags out, Elliott would likely be able to play, but for now fantasy drafters should plan for the worst-case scenario.
A six-game ban would have Elliott returning to the field in Week 8, since the Cowboys are on bye in Week 6. That means half of the fantasy regular season without Elliott for those who draft him. On the surface that sounds bad. Very bad. But a closer examination suggests things aren’t as dire.
If you aren’t familiar with the idea of replacement value, it’s a concept we use in fantasy to describe the production you’re likely to get in place of player slated to miss time due to injury or suspension. While you don’t have that player for those games, it’s not as if you take a zero for that position. You’re still going to start someone else. That’s your replacement player.
We can reasonably calculate that your replacement player will average as much as the highest projected player on the waiver wire at a given position. To find out who that player is, we have to used valued based calculations. There are a variety of approaches here, but I still prefer RotoViz founder Frank DuPont’s method. Once you establish your replacement level player, simply calculate his fantasy points per game, and multiple this number by the amount of games your player will miss.
In this case, Elliott missing the first six games of the season plus replacement level production for that span knocks him down to No. 8 among running backs. In standard leagues, that’s essentially a mid-second-round pick in standard leagues and a back-end Round 2 pick in PPR.
Darren McFadden will serve as the Cowboys’ lead back with Elliott out. He has the potential to be an RB2 over that span, but fantasy drafters shouldn’t overvalue McFadden. He slots in as a mid-range RB4, which makes him worthy of consideration in the ninth round of fantasy drafts.
2. Sammy Watkins traded to the Rams
After looking good in the Bills preseason opener, Watkins was immediately shipped to the Rams along with a 2018 sixth-round pick in exchange for E.J. Gaines and a 2018 second-round pick. The writing was on the wall for something to happen after the Rams did not pick up Watkins’ fifth-year option over the offseason, but this is still a very surprising move.
Watkins joins a Rams team in transition under new head coach Sean McVay. Los Angeles claimed they planned to use Tavon Austin as a DeSean Jackson type in McVay’s offense, but that never seemed to fit quite right with Austin’s skill set. Watkins on the other hand is perfectly suited to playing that role in the offense. He now gives Jared Goff a viable deep target and immediate slots in as the clear No. 1 option on a roster that is mainly composed of slot receiver types.
From a fantasy standpoint, this doesn’t move the needle much for Watkins’ fantasy value. He remains a WR2 option with a high weekly ceiling. Austin and Robert Woods take a hit here from a fantasy value standpoint. Neither are particularly appealing options at this point, especially if Cooper Kupp continues to impress during camp.
3. Jordan Matthews traded to the Bills
To fill the gap vacated by Watkins, the Bills acquired Matthews and a 2018 third-round pick in exchange for Ronald Darby. The move addresses a glaring need in Philadelphia, giving the Eagles a young corner has shown at times to have a significant potential. For Buffalo, they now have Matthews to go along with Anquan Boldin and rookie Zay Jones.
For Matthews, this move takes him from a situation where Nelson Agholor could have eaten into his snaps to a spot where he’s the clear No. 1 option. His fantasy value shoots up to the WR3 range, which would place him in about the seventh round in terms of fantasy value. It’s still to be determined who the Bills plan to use in two-wide sets. Boldin’s low ceiling isn’t ideal for fantasy purposes, but Jones could be interesting if he earns those duties.
In Philly, Matthews’ exit opens the door for Agholor to man the slot in three-wide sets. Agholor’s preseason got off to a somewhat rough start, and as the Eagles’ No. 3, he isn’t likely to be much of a fantasy factor. Perhaps the more interesting name here is Torrey Smith. After spending two years in Siberia San Francisco, Smith enters this season still south of 30 years old. He offers big play upside as the field stretcher in the offense and now projects to be on the field in two-wide sets. He’s worth considering as a flex option in the 10th/11th rounds of fantasy drafts.
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