Exception Report: Can Tarik Cohen top 10 targets again?

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine players and their impressive seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

This iteration will take a look at Chicago Bears RB Tarik Cohen and his big first game against the Falcons. Included in the 113 yards of offense on 13 touches were a team-leading 12 targets. Only five running backs since 1992 have seen multiple games of 10-plus targets (via Pro Football Reference):

 How did he get here?

Before dissecting the game, it is important to understand where Cohen came from. The term small will come up multiple times with Cohen, starting with North Carolina A&T, his college. The FCS-level competition was seen as a hindrance by some, even with Cohen’s division-level record 5,619 rushing yards. He also added 98 receptions in his four years, flashing that receiving ability that led to Cohen’s strong Week 1 performance.

The other question by scouts was his physical stature, measuring just 5-foot-6 and weighing 179 pounds. However, for the big-hands draftniks, Cohen had 10 1/8-inch hands, which is in the 95th percentile of the position, per Mock Draftable. Cohen’s most common comparison, Darren Sproles, has 8 ¼-inch hands. That doesn’t mean Cohen can catch better than Sproles, but there are mild correlations with catch rate and hand size, so it can be helpful.

The Bears picked Cohen in the fourth round due to his playmaking ability and natural instincts as a receiver. The initial vision seemed to be more of a complement to Jordan Howard, as last year’s Pro Bowl runner is not seen as a strong pass-catcher. While Cohen has little experience on special teams, the Bears were committed early in the offseason to find ways to get him the ball.

Can he set the mark?

Before the season started, it appeared to be a simple “no” answer to that question. While his main competition for backfield receptions, Jeremy Langford, was cut, it still wasn’t clear how involved Cohen would be. The injury to Cameron Meredith certainly helped all receivers vying for targets, but no one bet on Cohen’s Week 1 performance. During the game, Kevin White was also injured with the indication that he will be placed on injured reserve (again).

With all that change in the course of a short period, suddenly Cohen becomes maybe the most explosive receiver on the team. That helps considering quarterback Mike Glennon’s blandness as a passer. That was evident in the fact that only five of Glennon’s 40 throws traveled further than 10 yards in the air. If the Bears hope to create big plays and sustain drives, playmakers like Cohen will need to be featured.

Will he set the mark?

The Bears became creative with Cohen’s usage in the first game. He had five snaps at receiver, seeing targets on all of them (caught three). Overall, Cohen had 28 snaps compared to Howard’s 38, which was above the 10- to 15-snap-per-game rumors coming out of Bears camp. Those numbers could improve if the team decides to use him more at wide receiver, particularly in the slot as healthy wide receivers will need to replace White (in addition to Meredith). The expectations of a few heavily targeted games are realistic as the Bears could be trailing in games much of the season.

Confidence Level: 65%

What does this mean for fantasy?

Cohen has legitimate 60-catch upside in an offense looking at negative game script and a short passing quarterback. While the 46-yard run Cohen had was an example of his big-play ability, it is more likely he is more of a contributor in the receiving game than as a runner. That said, a realistic goal for total offensive yardage is 1,000 if the Bears continue to utilize Cohen. Along with a handful of touchdowns, that would put Cohen in the top-24 conversation.

It’s important to note that receiving backs like Cohen tend to be volatile on a weekly basis even if the final season numbers look good. Also, the Bears could mismanage Cohen or another receiving option could emerge similar to Meredith last season. If he is available in waivers, spending 50-60 percent of the available dollars seems appropriate to gamble on Cohen’s possible outcomes. Don’t wait another week to try and validate his Week 1 performance. Chase Tarik Cohen now.