Playing fantasy in dynasty leagues? It’s time to look at the changing stocks of some dynasty fantasy options.
We’re right at the halfway point of the season when — pardon my French — poop is starting to get real. By now, you should have a good idea if you’re contending or re-building. If you took our recommendations in Week 5, you’d be playing with house money. Theo Riddick was considered a hold and proved as much, hauling in four and five catches the last two weeks. Those types of games don’t move the needle on his value as that’s what he’s expected to do. Our two buys from the week have paid off, as Larry Fitzgerald totaled 16 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown in the last two weeks, while Jimmy Graham scored at least 10 fantasy points in the same span. Doug Martin was a sell and hasn’t seen more than 15 touches in either week, although he scored in both games. But unless Martin can score in each game, our recommendation stands. Really the only whiff, using our extremely small sample size, was Carson Wentz. I won’t say I’m responsible, but Wentz has thrown for seven touchdowns since we said he was a sell candidate.
So without further ado, let’s see which players you should be moving before it’s too late. As always, their dynasty ADP is courtesy of FFB Calculator.
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
(Current dynasty positional ADP: 4)
Few would have predicted that Carr, the fourth quarterback taken in the 2014 NFL Draft, would end up having the most successful career of any quarterback in that class to date. He’s been so good, in fact, that he’s currently dynasty’s fourth quarterback in ADP behind elite options like Aaron Rodgers (RIP to his collarbone), Andrew Luck, and Marcus Mariota. So is Carr worthy of such a high ranking?
In short, yes. Carr had one of the best starts of any quarterback in history, let alone compared to the quarterbacks in his class (Blake Bortles has struggled, Teddy Bridgewater has been hurt, and Johnny Manziel has gone away). Carr has thrown for 81 touchdowns in his first three seasons, fourth behind only Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, and Luck. He’s also had the eighth-most passing yards and third-lowest interception rate over the first three years of a career (among quarterbacks with at least 30 passing touchdowns). And he’s improved every year in PFF grading, from being PFF’s 38th-ranked quarterback his rookie season up to 11th his sophomore season to seventh last year. He did all of that while improving his completion percentage each year and cutting his interceptions in half last year from 13 to six.
It’s probably no surprise that Carr really improved once the Raiders drafted Amari Cooper and signed Michael Crabtree. In those two seasons, Carr’s averaged over 3,900 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. For as bad as Cooper has been statistically this year, he’s only 23 and not going anywhere. Nor is Crabtree, who continues his career renaissance with six touchdowns already this season. If there’s any knock on Carr it’s that he’s being knocked around himself. He broke his fibula in Week 16 last season, missing the playoffs and he injured his back a few weeks back, missing another game. Carr didn’t miss a game his first two seasons so if there’s any injury trend, it’s going downward.
Verdict: Sell. I was honestly surprised at the numbers Carr has put up during his career. But already 26 years old, I think it’s safe to say he won’t be nearing Rodgers’ level at the top anytime soon, meaning fourth could be his peak dynasty value. I would sell now while he’s young and roll with plenty of the middle-tier QB1s behind him, like Jameis Winston or Dak Prescott.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
(ADP: 4)
Entering the 2015 season, Freeman was hardly on anyone’s dynasty radar. He was one of myriad young running backs that anyone could have had after he totaled less than 500 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage his rookie year. People also forget that he wasn’t even named the opening day starter that year — that honor went to Tevin Coleman. But the Falcons brought in Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator, Coleman was banged up early and Freeman took off to the tune of over 1,600 total yards plus 14 total touchdowns and ended the season as fantasy’s top running back. Freeman proved it wasn’t a fluke the next year, as he totaled 1,500 yards and 13 total touchdowns on his way to becoming fantasy’s sixth-highest-scoring running back. And even though his receiving numbers are down so far this year, he’s on pace to top 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit rushing touchdowns for the third straight year.
With that resume, there’s little reason to doubt that Freeman should be a top-five running back and he isn’t as far off from the top spot as you might think. He’s three months younger than David Johnson, hasn’t had nearly the same injury history as Le’Veon Bell or the off-field complications of Ezekiel Elliott. Don’t get me wrong — the ceiling with all three is higher than it is with Freeman. But Freeman represents a safe fallback if you don’t have a top-three running back. He’s part of an offense with a young-ish core of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and just signed an extension that makes it more expensive to cut him than to keep him until 2019. If anything, he’s getting better. For example, he was 18th in PFF’s Elusive Rating in 2015, his breakout year, then moved up to 16th last year but is up to fourth this year, meaning he’s forcing more missed tackles than before.
Verdict: Buy. Freeman is ranked in a unique spot. He’s not considered an elite running back like Johnson or Bell but he’s not one of the young guns to burst on the scene this year like Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt. Yet, he’s typically priced below both. I would buy at a cheaper price than those backs listed above while insuring my running back position is squared away for at least 2-3 years.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns
(ADP: 17)
Crowell was a trendy buy in dynasty leagues before the season. Only 24, he was coming off a top-15 fantasy season at the position, rushing for over 950 yards and seven touchdowns, despite Cleveland finishing second-to-last in rush attempts. There was hope that Cleveland and coach Hue Jackson would focus on the run, and Crowell, even more. That’s just what Jackson did in his four years before coming to Cleveland, where his offenses as either a coordinator or head coach finished no lower than seventh in rush attempts.
But for all that optimism, Crowell’s production has fallen off a cliff. While he averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season, it’s down to 3.4 this year, nearly 1.5 yards per carry. Part of that could be the result of a decline in big plays from Crowell. He led the NFL last year in PFF’s breakaway percentage, or the percentage of yards that came on runs of 15 yards or more and had 16 such runs. This season, he has just two such runs and is down to 21st out of 24 qualifying running backs in breakaway percentage. It’s hard to pinpoint what the difference has been. The Browns are still winless through five games, just like last year. Their offensive line finished as PFF’s 18th ranked run-blocking unit last year and are 18th again this year. And he’s seeing the same ratio of rush attempts when compared to passing-back Duke Johnson at about 3:1. Crowell is now in a contract year and this dip is coming at the worst possible time for his free agent prospects.
Verdict: Sell. Sell for spare parts if you have to but Crowell is an asset in rapid decline. His status for 2018 is completely up in the air and he’s not setting himself apart from the dozens of other running backs that will be available in free agency. At least if you sell now, you’re selling a starting running back as opposed to next year when Crowell may be taking one-year deals with teams looking for depth.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New England Patriots
(ADP: 8)
Entering 2017, many were eager to see how Cooks would adapt to his new team. He played in New Orleans his first three seasons and undoubtedly benefitted from the Saints’ pass-happy offense, finishing as a top-10 fantasy receiver in his second and third seasons. So when he was traded to New England, there was little consensus on how he would be used and what it would mean for his future fantasy value. Would he be the deep threat Bill Belichick has been longing for since Randy Moss? Or would he be a target hog along the lines of Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, etc.?
For starters, Cooks has been used more as a deep threat and his higher average depth of target has proved it. After aDOT’s of 12.9 and 13.3 yards in 2015 and 2016 (good for 41st and 42nd, respectively), it’s up to 16.2 yards this year which is 14th among qualifying receivers. That increase has manifested itself in his yards per catch, which was 13.5 and 15 the previous two seasons but currently stands at 19.7. However, it’s also led to more drops. Cooks already has five drops so far out of just 29 catchable targets, for a 17.24% drop rate. Compare that to the prior two seasons when Cooks had more than four drops all season and drop rates in the 4-5 percent range.
Fortunately, Cooks has yet to see a decline in targets from last season, when he was fantasy’s eighth-highest-scoring wide receiver. So far, he’s seen 41 in New England, good for second on the team. So while the opportunity is the same, Cooks has evolved into a legitimate deep-passing option and is still producing. He currently stands as fantasy’s ninth-best receiver.
Verdict: Buy. So far, Cooks has answered the critics who said he’s just a system-dependent receiver. He’s averaging a career-high 78.7 yards-per-game and is still a top-10 fantasy receiver. He’ll be in New England for at least another year after his option was picked up and he’s playing with the best coach-quarterback combination in the league. I would buy especially considering he’s younger than all but one of the seven receivers currently being drafted ahead of him in dynasty startups, including former teammate Michael Thomas.
Jordan Matthews, WR, Buffalo Bills
(ADP: 40)
After turning in a solid rookie season of 67 receptions for 872 yards and eight touchdowns, Matthews improved upon that with 85 catches for 997 yards and another eight touchdowns. Matthews did a lot of his damage those two years in the slot — he finished second in the league his rookie year in the routes from the slot and first in his sophomore year, topping out at seeing about seven of his eight targets per game from there. Of course, Matthews was hand-picked by then-coach Chip Kelly to fill that role. When Kelly was fired and Doug Pederson brought in, Matthews’ role started to change. While he saw basically the same average number of targets per game, only 5.5 of those came from the slot, compared to the seven he was seeing before. In short, last season was an audition for Matthews to see if he would be part of the Eagles’ long-term plans though he didn’t man the slot nearly as much. The answer came in the form of free agent signings Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, making Matthews expendable and eventually part of a trade to Buffalo, which had just traded Sammy Watkins.
So far this season, it’s fair to say Matthews isn’t passing this latest test with the Bills. He totaled only 10 receptions through his first four games before a thumb injury sidelined him for a few weeks and had just five targets from the slot, a far cry from the 114 he enjoyed his sophomore season. And even when Matthews returns, he just won’t be seeing much volume, whether it's from the slot or not. He went from an Eagles team that had 38 pass attempts per game last year to a Bills team averaging 27 pass attempts-per-game this year. He’s also been much less efficient, averaging just 1.43 yards per route run this year (using a small sample size) after averaging 1.81 his rookie year.
Verdict: Sell. I would try to receive some value based on the name and reputation but with Matthews set to hit free agency, his future is extremely uncertain. It’s unlikely he distinguishes himself these last 10 weeks, which means he will be viewed more as a depth signing in the off-season. That would mean a cheap contract and lower odds for meaningful opportunities in his future team's passing game.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Green Bay Packers
(ADP: 12)
I will never understand the lack of love and attention given to Bennett in dynasty circles. Sure, he could have been labelled a bust after his first four seasons, never topping 283 yards and not scoring in three of them, despite being a second-round pick. But it turns out he just needed a change of scenery (and not playing behind Jason Witten) to be extremely productive. Since then, when he’s played in all 16 games, which he has in four of his last five seasons, he’s finished no worse than 13th in fantasy scoring among tight ends.
The one potential disadvantage is his age. Bennett’s already 30 years old and has played an incredible nine seasons. But that 30 could be a misleading as Bennett hasn’t played nearly as much as his number of years in the league would indicate. For example, he averaged 471 snaps his first four years but 938 the last five. He signed a three-year contract with the Packers this offseason so count at least one team that won’t see a decline in production for the next couple seasons.
Verdict: Buy. Bennett is by no means an elite dynasty tight end, but I would much rather roll with Bennett and the Packers offense over tight ends currently ranked ahead of him like Eric Ebron, who’s failed to produce a top-10 fantasy season yet, or Greg Olsen, who appears to be permanently broken.
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