Dynasty Stock Watch: Key veterans heading into Week 3

We’re two weeks into the season and there's been plenty of performances and numbers to pore over. For re-draft leagues, 12.5 percent of the season is over and the time to make a move is approaching. As Andy Dufresne said in The Shawshank Redemption, “You either get busy living or get busy dying.”

The situation is a little less urgent (and dramatic) for dynasty leaguers as they’re thinking beyond this season. They’re not as concerned with their record as much as the makeup of their team. You’re either contending or rebuilding. The players below could be on either side, so let’s see what you should do with them in this edition of the Dynasty Stock Watch.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

(Dynasty Startup ADP: QB6)

Admittedly, 2017 has not started off well for Wilson — or the Seahawks, for that matter. Sure, they’re 1-1, but they were pushed around in Green Bay and barely scraped by hapless San Francisco at home. Wilson is leading the middling charge, throwing for just 356 yards and one touchdown over those games. It’s a small sample size, but he’s on pace for roughly 2,800 passing yards and eight touchdowns. His 5.4 yards per attempt is 31st among 34 quarterbacks that have seen significant time this season. As far as the passing game goes in Seattle, it’s one giant “Not Great, Bob” GIF.

But fear not, current and prospective Wilson dynasty owners! Throughout his career, he’s been a certifiably slow starter, at least in the passing game.

Furthermore, he hasn’t thrown an interception yet, which is indicative of his extremely low turnover rate. These two points show me that Wilson is having a very him-like season.

If anything, there should be reason for optimism when it comes to Wilson. He’s rushed for 74 yards so far, putting him on pace for 592. That total would be the second-highest of his career and is important. It makes up value when comparing Wilson to, say, Drew Brees. Wilson may never throw for 40 touchdowns but with those 600 yards on the ground, that’s the fantasy equivalent of 10-15 passing touchdowns, depending on your league’s scoring.

Verdict: Hold/Buy. If you have Wilson, he’s a strong hold. There’s no need to overreact after two weeks, especially since this looks like Wilson’s MO. If you do not have Wilson, I’d be putting in offers to see if you can acquire him.

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

(Dynasty Startup ADP: RB26)

For a running back who has finished in the top 15 in fantasy points for the last three years, Ingram still doesn’t get enough love, even from his own coach. I don’t know what Ingram did to Sean Payton, but I’m convinced Payton lives to troll him. Why else would he bench Ingram for Tim Hightower last year (the same Hightower who doesn’t have a job this year)? Or sign Hall-of-Famer Adrian Peterson, knowing the attention it would garner? Or trade a 2018 second-round pick for running back Alvin Kamara? But despite the barrage of competition, Ingram still produces and is a fantasy-relevant back.

How does he do it? Being the top running back in the Saints pass-happy offense certainly helps. He finished 15th in targets among all running backs and turned that into 46 catches for 319 yards and four touchdowns. Ingram would also do well if he ever left the Saints and played in a more balanced offense that ran the ball often. His yards per carry has increased each year since 2014, resulting in a career-high 5.1 YPC last year. He finished seventh in 2015 and sixth in 2016 in elusive rating, forcing dozens of missed tackles. He also topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career, despite finishing 19th in the NFL in carries, and was the first Saint to rush for 1,000 yards in a decade.

Verdict: Buy. His versatility is what makes Ingram valuable in or out of New Orleans. Sure, he’s already 27, but he’s also never had more than 226 carries in a season, leaving plenty of tread left on his tires. Running backs are easily replaceable in the NFL, but as the 26th running back off the dynasty board, Ingram is valuable.

C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos

(Dynasty Startup ADP: RB22)

There are a few surprises when looking at the top five fantasy running backs at this point in the season, but Anderson isn’t one of them. Anderson has always flashed potential, even finishing as PFF’s fourth-highest-graded running back when he burst on the scene in 2014. But this year, he might see the volume to bump up to the top tier of fantasy running backs.

The Denver personnel is the same, but a new coaching staff sees Mike McCoy returning as offensive coordinator. In his last two years of his previous stint at Broncos offensive coordinator, his teams finished in the top-10 of rushing attempts for both years. His arrival has curbed a trend in Denver that’s seen the team actually decrease in rush attempts per game from 27 in 2014 to 26 in 2015 and 25 last year. Currently, they’re averaging 37.5 rush attempts per game, with 22 of those going to Anderson. Anderson is on pace for 350 carries. It’s unlikely he actually gets there, but the early-season signs are encouraging.

Verdict: Sell. If I’m an Anderson owner, I would dangle him to a team struggling with their elite options, like David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliott. No, you won’t be able to get those guys for Anderson straight up (God bless you if you pull that off), but Anderson plus a smaller piece might. The fact is Anderson is a year removed from a torn meniscus and has never handled more than 180 carries in a season — he only had 200 in his entire college career! Whereas Ingram has produced in the role he’s currently in, we haven’t seen what a bell-cow role will do to Anderson. It’s all roses now, but I’d like to see a full season of production like this before I believe it.

Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns

(Dynasty Startup ADP: WR28)

It’s been quite the fall in dynasty value for Coleman. At his peak value, not long after being drafted, Coleman was going in the third round of dynasty startups. Of course, that was before a disappointing and injury-filled rookie season that saw Coleman play just 10 games and total 413 yards, good for eighth among rookie receivers.

Fast-forward to the start of the 2017 season, and there was reason for optimism. The Browns continued to improve the roster, even drafting a quarterback, DeShone Kizer, in the second round. Sure, the Browns signed Kenny Britt in the offseason, but Coleman had an obvious rapport with Kizer, with most of his eight receptions for 106 yards in the preseason coming from the rookie. Even his first regular-season game showed promise. He caught five balls for 53 yards and a touchdown, and led the team in targets with six. Of course, that was before his broken hand suffered in Week 2, which knocks him out for at least half of this season. Dynasty teams are now left wondering what to do with Coleman.

For starters, Coleman’s draft positions (taken in the first round, 15th overall) will give him plenty of a leash in Cleveland, as the Browns are unlikely to move on from that high of a draft pick. However, with his injuries now piling up, it will give the receivers Cleveland drafted behind him a chance to establish themselves. Both Ricardo Louis and Rashard Higgins were taken in the same draft as Coleman, in the fourth and fifth rounds, respectively. It’s unlikely that one or the other turns out to be a better receiver — fantasy or real — than Coleman, but Coleman is losing half the battle by not being on the field, which gives Louis and Higgins a shot. Coleman’s injury coupled with Britt’s abrupt decline means both will see snaps over the next few weeks.

Verdict: Sell. At the very least, Coleman’s reputation and pedigree outweigh his actual production. With Louis and Higgins given playing time in his absence, it’s possible one or both of them carves out a role in the offense going forward. This either cuts into Coleman’s potential production or makes him expendable. Either way, I’d look to capitalize on his name.

Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

(Dynasty Startup ADP: WR5)

Somehow, Cooper has been one of the most polarizing figures in fantasy discussions. I believe he suffers from Eric Ebron-itis (trademark pending) wherein his draft status puts unrealistic expectations on him. Drafted third overall in 2015, he quickly shot up dynasty boards as a top-five option at receiver. He remains there, just under elite options like Odell Beckham and Mike Evans. And why shouldn’t he? He’s one of seven receivers since the NFL merger to record 1,000 yard receiving seasons in his first two seasons (Beckham and Evans have too) — and all before his 23rd birthday.

But for some, Cooper’s ADP hasn’t justified his production. While Beckham and Evans have averaged close to 1,400 and 1,200 yards respectively, Cooper has yet to top 1,153. In fact, Beckham set the record for most receiving yards over a player's first two years, while Evans is seventh. Meanwhile, Cooper is ninth on that list.

One area where Beckham and Evans have far outshone Cooper is touchdowns. Cooper has just 12 total receiving touchdowns for his career, a feat Beckham and Evans have both done twice in a single season. It also doesn’t help Cooper’s fantasy case that fellow Raiders receiver Michael Crabtree continues to be a scoring machine, especially in the red zone as my PFF colleague, Scott Barrett, pointed out:

Inside the 15-yard-line (2015-2017)

Crabtree: 26 targets, 10 TDs, 1 drop
Cooper: 16 targets, 1 TD, 2 drops

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 19, 2017

Verdict: Hold. At just 23, Cooper already has two 1,000-yard seasons while some receivers are just entering the league. He’s also tied to a young quarterback in Derek Carr. In redraft leagues, you could make the case that Cooper’s ADP in the first or second round wasn’t nearly worth the cost. However, in dynasty, you’re planning for at least 2-3 seasons in the future. And unless you have a Beckham or Evans on your team, there are fewer sure things at receiver than Cooper.

Coby Fleener, TE, New Orleans Saints

(Dynasty Startup ADP: N/A)

In another case of super-high expectations, Fleener was set to join elite tight end status a year ago. His move from the Colts last year to New Orleans sent dynasty owners into a tizzy. The Saints tight end the previous year, Ben Watson, finished seventh in fantasy scoring (in both standard and PPR leagues) after setting or tying career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns. So naturally, when the Saints turned to Fleener, a younger, seemingly better player than Watson, dynasty owners were expecting great things.

What they got fell short, though, of those expectations and even Watson’s production from the year before. Sure, he finished as the 13th-best fantasy tight end, but that was only on 50 catches for 631 yards and three touchdowns, none of which were higher than his career year in Indianapolis in 2014. For a team that passed it 42 times a game last year, Fleener left plenty to be desired.

Of course, the silver lining in Fleener’s disappointing year is his decline in perceived value. He doesn’t even crack the top-20 tight ends taken in dynasty startups, which is crazy since he A) produced at least TE2 numbers in New Orleans and B) is still in New Orleans. The Saints didn’t bring in any competition, either through free agency or the draft, leaving Fleener the job to himself. And no, I’m not counting backup Josh Hill and his 15 receptions last season.

Verdict: Buy. Fleener is in his prime and is still in one of the best passing situations in the league. He’s also a year removed from learning a new offense. If you’re looking for a solid backup option or even a streamer to start a few weeks per year, Fleener is a fine choice.