Fantasy News & Analysis

Dynasty Stock Watch: Changing values down the home stretch

TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 27: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on against the Seattle Seahawks during the game at Raymond James Stadium on November 27, 2016 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers defeated the Seahawks 14-5. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

In our last edition of the Dynasty Stock Watch, we looked at the free agent class of 2018 and what would help their dynasty value. Since then:

  • Drew Brees continued his newfound skill as a game manager, completed over 70 percent of his passes the last two games but throwing only three touchdowns between them making him a low-impact dynasty asset.
  • Kirk Cousins continues to be his volatile self, completing 70 percent of his passes and throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns in one game then following that up by completing just 55 percent of his passes and throwing for just 150 yards and a touchdown in the other.
  • Le’Veon Bell kept doing his thing, totaling 300 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns.
  • Dion Lewis saw 10 touches in both games since Week 13 but he should still leave New England if he’s going to have any dynasty value.
  • Vikings RB Jerick McKinnon saw just 23 touches in his last two games, scoring only once, proving again that his value will only increase on another team.
  • Alshon Jeffery removed himself from the pending free agent list, signing a four-year extension with the Eagles, and thereby limiting his dynasty value in the near future. He saw just 61 and 52 receiving yards over Weeks 13 and 14 respectively and still has yet to have a 100-yard game as an Eagle.
  • Sammy Watkins continues to disappoint fantasy owners with just six catches for 59 yards combined over Weeks 13 and 14, but he did score twice. But if that’s the best Sammy can do each week, he’s still better off somewhere else.
  • Lastly, Austin Seferian-Jenkins has turned in a couple of duds, catching just three balls over his last two games, which could impact his free agency and dynasty value.

Without further ado, let’s get to this week’s subjects and see if you should buy or sell once your league’s season is over.

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Any time a 40-year-old quarterback turns in a dud of a performance — like Brady did in Week 14 throwing for 233 yards, one touchdowns and two picks — it’s fair to wonder if it’s time to hang it up. In fact, Brady had a bit of a dud the week before too, throwing for just 258 yards and no touchdowns. Those two give him five games of throwing one or zero touchdowns passes. But despite the brief stretch of bad fantasy games, Brady is still going strong this season. He actually has just as many games of three or more touchdowns (5) as he has with zero or one and is still a top-five fantasy quarterback. He’s also one of only three quarterbacks to throw at least 20 touchdowns in a season while in their 40s.

Quarterback Season Age Passing TDs
Brett Favre 2009 40 33
Tom Brady 2017 40 27
Warren Moon 1997 41 25

If this were a quarterback with seven seasons of 30-plus touchdowns and eight seasons of 4,000 passing yards but were 10, or even five, years younger, they’d be considered a top-five dynasty asset. But no one beats Father Time, not even Brady. So what do you do with him?

For starters, let’s look at the following season of those other quarterbacks that were still productive in their 40s.

Quarterback Season Age Passing TDs
Brett Favre 2010 41 11
Tom Brady 2018 41 ??
Warren Moon 1998 42 11

Not great, Bob. And while Brady has everything else going for him — from the surrounding talent to an excellent coach and even the fact that there is no obvious heir apparent — time is the one thing no one can reverse, not even Brady. For him to continue to produce at this level would be unprecedented.

Verdict: Sell. Brady will be coming off a top-10 fantasy season even if it tails off at the end, so he’ll still have some value. But i wouldn’t want to be holding the bag on Brady when it’s apparent he can’t continue his illustrious career. Sell while you can.

Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Left for dead by many, Collins has found a home in Baltimore and has realized what some thought was his destiny in Seattle — that of a viable fantasy running back. After Ravens starting RB Kenneth Dixon went down for the season, Collins was able to seize the starting job and never look back. On the season, he’s totaled 825 yards and scored five times, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and is fantasy’s 14th-highest-scoring running back. Beyond the raw numbers, he’s been even more impressive. His 0.4 fantasy points per snap is second among all running backs behind only Alvin Kamara, while his 68.8 elusive rating is third among all running backs. By all accounts, Collins has been a dynasty asset this season.

So, as a Collins owner, do you have a long-term solution at running back or a flash in the pan? It’s fair to say Collins will be back in Baltimore next season since he’s still on his rookie contract and has been by far the Ravens’ most effective back. The two running backs behind Collins — Javorius Allen and Terrance West — have both averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and failed to retain the starting job when given the chance. West has never averaged more than 4.0 yards-per-carry in any season of his career and set to be a free agent. Allen has filled the passing down role more in the wake of the injury to Danny Woodhead, totaling 55 targets on the season, but shouldn't challenge for the first and second down role anytime soon. Meanwhile, Dixon will return from a torn meniscus but he didn’t exactly have a stranglehold on the starting job either, averaging just 4.3 yards-per-carry in just 12 games during his brief career and has had multiple run-ins with the league when it comes to its substance abuse policy.

Verdict: Buy. As a team, and with Collins leading the way, Baltimore’s run game has been the least of their issues this season. They are in the top 10 in rushing yards per game but in the bottom-10 in passing yards per game. I’d be buying Collins as his role is quickly becoming more secure and he’s performed well when given the chance.

Rob Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins

Kelley has never been a promising dynasty prospect, but his opportunity forced the conversation. He led Washington with 168 carries in 2016, totaling 704 yards and six touchdowns. Not a bad rookie season for a player that was undrafted. He entered the 2017 season as the starter but could never build on that promising rookie season. He played in only seven games before a high ankle injury knocked him out for the season but, even when playing, wasn't very effective. He rushed for just 194 yards and a 3.1 yards per carry including just two games of more than 3.0 yards-per-carry. On the season, PFF graders rank him as the 127th-best running back out of 138.

Verdict: Sell. Even if Kelley were able to return from the injury next year and retain the starting job, it’s not like the Redskins running back position is very lucrative. During head coach Jay Gruden’s four years in Washington, he’s ranked 21st, 14th, 27th, and now 21st this year in rush attempts and has only one 1,000-yard rusher in that span.

Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina Panthers

Ever since Funchess was drafted, he’s been considered a project. Originally a tight end at Michigan, he converted to wide receiver before his last season there in order to increase his draft stock. The Panthers were intrigued enough by his larger frame at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds they selected him in the second round. Rookie seasons are hard enough of a transition for players that play their position their entire lives let alone one that just converted the year before and Funchess was no different, totaling fewer than 500 receiving yards. He totaled just 371 the next. But a midseason trade this season opened the door for Funchess is potential to finally take off.

Ever since Carolina traded Kelvin Benjamin, then their top statistical wide receiver, Funchess has been one of the most productive receivers in the league, averaging the ninth-most fantasy points per game among all receivers. On the season he is fantasy’s 16th-highest-scoring receiver, which is the highest Benjamin ever finished in his three active seasons with the Panthers. It’s a feat even more impressive when you consider Carolina ranks just 25th in pass attempts on the season.

Verdict: Sell. While Funchess leads the team in targets, receiving yards and touchdowns this season, I fear that there is not much room for growth. Carolina has been without tight and Greg Olsen or 2017 second-round receiver Curtis Samuel. It will be interesting to see how Carolina divvies up all of these targets among their playmakers. Funchess stands to lose the most when everyone is healthy.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans has had a bad season by any account. With only 55 receptions for 760 yards and four touchdowns, he’s fantasy’s 27th-highest-scoring receiver. Beyond the basic stats, Evans has been even worse. His 1.62 yards per route run is more than a half-yard below his average last season of 2.28 and is much lower than his previous career-low of 2.06. Much of that can be attributed to the fact that Evans hasn’t seen nearly as many deep balls this season. So far, he’s seen only 16 targets of more than 20 yards downfield whereas he saw 37, 34, and 39 in each season 2014-2016. Without those deep balls, it’s hard for Evans to capitalize as much on his large frame and ability to win those contested passes.

Of course, not seeing deep passes isn’t Evans’ fault as he can’t throw and catch balls at the same time. Tampa’s offense has been a disaster in general. Their offense is 12th in yards but just 21st in points and has toggled between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Plus, there’s been no running game to speak of that could draw defenses away from Evans with Tampa ranking just 24th in rushing yards.

Verdict: Buy. There’s going to be a lot of discounts shoppers hoping Evans will come at a discount and rightfully so. Evans totaled the sixth most receptions, fifth most receiving yards, sixth in touchdowns of any receiver over their first three seasons. It’s hard to deny that kind of production and expect it to suddenly drop off. He should still be treated as a WR1.

Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta Falcons

After being the second tight end selected in the 2016 draft, and being drafted by a high-flying offense, it was fair to assign some fairly high expectations for Hooper. The 19 receptions his rookie season could be forgiven as tight end is notoriously a position that takes longer to master. The training wheels came off his sophomore year and the job was all his. Through Week 14, he’s been squarely in the TE1/2 category with 41 receptions for 461 yards and three touchdowns. He’s also 10th among all tight ends in yards per route run at 1.53. Unfortunately, the Falcons are just 23rd in pass attempts per game this year with 32. So while he’s third on his own team in targets with 56, that total is just 19th among all tight ends. Furthermore, he’s dropped six of 47 catchable passes, or 12.77 percent, which is second-worst. Only rookie Evan Engram has a higher drop rate, but he’s also seen 40 more targets than Hooper, which has propelled Engram to be a top-five fantasy tight end.

Verdict: Sell. Matt Ryan threw a career-high 651 times in 2013, and his attempts have declined each year, including this season’s pace of only 513, his lowest since 2009. With receivers Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu both performing well and under contract for the near future, I don’t see Hooper carving out more targets than he’s seeing now which means his value is stuck.

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