Dynasty/Devy values: Fantasy risers and fallers in college, NFL
Similar to redraft leagues, dynasty and devy fantasy football leagues see stock fluctuations throughout the season. However, they are not always as obvious since these fantasy owners are playing both a short and long-term game. This series will examine some dynasty and devy options who are emerging or fading as a result of injury, performance, or opportunity.
Dynasty stock up
Over the last two weeks, Williams is second to Alvin Kamara in standard scoring and third in PPR formats. He is breaking tackles (ranked 13th with five) and is second in total rush attempts behind Marshawn Lynch. The Packers carousel at running back has shown fantasy owners that they possess talent but are no closer to providing an answer to who their future is. Williams likely remains the cheapest option to acquire at the moment, but that could change if he performs during the fantasy playoffs.
In Drake’s first start of 2017, the sophomore back ran for 120 yards against the Denver Broncos defense in Week 13. He broke seven tackles on runs (another two on receptions), his total of nine leading the NFL for the week. With 26 total touches and little in the way of competition, Drake could prove himself the feature running back the Dolphins need and change their priority this offseason to complementary backup rather than bell cow runner.
While the big plays haven’t occurred yet, Westbrook has 12 receptions in the last two weeks. That has helped him to a top-24 ranking in PPR formats despite competing with Marqise Lee and Keelan Cole for the limited opportunities provided by Blake Bortles. Both Lee and Allen Robinson are set to be free agents and Allen Hurns’ contract provides an out for the team making Westbrook a likely starter going into 2018.
A quiet start to the season had Crowder falling out of favor for both dynasty owners and the Washington pecking order. Ineffectiveness and injury pushed Crowder to the forefront once again as he ranks as a top-12 wide receiver over the last four weeks in PPR formats. It is likely that Terrelle Pryor does not return and with the emergence of Josh Doctson, the team may focus on other needs this offseason to improve their playoff chances for 2018.
Devy stock up
J’Mon Moore, WR, Missouri
Back-to-back seasons of 60-plus catches with over 1,000 yards tends to perk up the ears and eyes of NFL scouts. Moore certainly has the size (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) to go with the production and he knows how to use it. Moore ranks 16th in missed tackles forced on receptions and has caught 10 of his 21 deep targets. There is a lot to like here and with his invitation to the senior bowl accepted, it is more likely his stock rises than falls.
D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland
A second Moore normally invites a “more” pun, but let’s abstain. This Moore isn’t as tall (5-11) but is built solidly (215 pounds) with big-play ability. He ranks 12th with 30 deep targets, hauling in nine of them including two for touchdowns. Additionally, Moore is sixth with 19 forced missed tackles on receptions and 13th in yards after the catch. Some are already putting Moore in the first-round conversation, which may seem extreme now, but he has the talent to rise this offseason.
Dynasty stock down
This isn’t an indictment on Prescott’s long-term value, but rather the state of the offense he resides in without Ezekiel Elliott. While Alfred Morris has done an admirable job, it is clear that defenses are focused on containing Prescott and not the run game. Since Elliott’s suspension began, Prescott ranks 26th in fantasy points at the position and has just two passing touchdowns (in four games). The Cowboys need to add more dynamic options to open up the offense or risk remaining one dimensional.
A tough year already, Fleener just suffered his fifth concussion of his career. Playing a career-low 37 percent of the offensive snaps, he had just two games with greater than three receptions or 50 yards. Unlike fellow frequent concussion sufferer Jordan Reed, Fleener doesn’t have the upside to justify him remaining on dynasty teams.
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
A personal favorite during the 2015 draft season, Parker has never been able to put it all together. The thought was that a quarterback with a big arm and no conscience would put him over the top. Well, Jay Cutler is that and they haven’t clicked. Both Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry have been performing well while Parker has been the odd man out. Cutler has thrown five interceptions his way, forcing the ball at times, but only one touchdown connection on 60 total targets. It might be time for a change of scenery for Parker to have a chance.
Nearly two years in and it is difficult to parse out how much of Coleman’s struggles are his own doing and how much should be associated with external factors like quarterbacking and coaching. He has barely caught 50 percent of his targets overall and had an 0-for-4 effort in Josh Gordon’s return. Coleman is a hold that is looking more like a lottery ticket than a sure thing.
Devy stock down
Shea Patterson, QB, Mississippi
Well, he won’t be a Rebel for long. Patterson, a five-star quarterback recruit just two years ago, is visiting schools looking for a transfer after the sanctions levied upon the team. While Michigan is the front runner, there will be other teams in play. He was the SEC’s leading passer when he tore his knee in October, although he had a few uneven performances. The reason his stock goes down is the uncertainty of the landing spot, if he will receive a waiver to play immediately, and how his knee recovery goes.
Quadree Henderson, WR, Pittsburgh
This isn’t a judgement on Henderson’s decision to declare — many athletes have personal reasons to declare early. Rather, Henderson comes out at a time where his draft stock appears more like a Day 3 prospect than in the top 10 at the position. His season was largely a bust, never exceeding three receptions or 100 total yards of offense. Staying would have helped his draft position most likely, making the decision a downgrade from a devy standpoint.