Week 5 DFS locks of the week
Pricing across both major sites remains tight in Week 5, and it appears that will be a weekly thing this year. This is great from a competitive standpoint, but it definitely makes lineup building a little uncomfortable.
But a plethora of players find themselves in great spots, or at great prices, this week. Below are some of the players I’m locking into Week 5 DFS lineups.
Note: There’s always a case to be made for playing any player in tournaments. This list of “locks” is cash-game focused, but I typically like these players across all contest types.
Rodgers takes on a Cowboys team that ranks in the bottom 10 in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. The Packers may also be without Ty Montgomery, which means Rodgers will shoulder even more of the responsibilities in a game with the highest projected point total of the week (52.5).
Prescott is sixth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points so far this year, and he has a great floor with his rushing. His 25 rushing attempts rank second among all quarterbacks, as do his 138 rushing yards. He’s also playing as a home favorite in the game with by far the highest over/under of the week (52.5)
Palmer remains criminally underrated. The Eagles rank in the bottom 10 in terms of fantasy points given up to quarterbacks, and they have given up the second-most passing yards (1,204) on the year. Palmer ranks second among all quarterbacks in yards (1,282).
The Colts have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this year, and Hoyer is extremely cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is a lock if you want to go major value hunting.
Bell is a must-play. I’ll have him in cash and tournaments. He can legitimately see 40 touches in any given week and he’s a massive home favorite against the worst run defense in the NFL. Need more?
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Another player in what should be the highest-scoring game of the week, Elliott is averaging 23 touches and just under 100 total yards per game — and that includes his total dud against the Broncos. Elliott will light it up this week.
Gurley is a lock even in what appears to be a tough matchup against the Seahawks (pro tip: it’s not a tough matchup). Gurley ranks in the top five in every single meaningful running back category: carries, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, rushing touchdowns, and receiving touchdowns.
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
The Colts have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs through four weeks, and this game actually has a modest over/under (44.5) relative to the rest of the week.
Abdullah is here because he’s extremely cheap and he’s seeing heavy volume. He has at least 17 touches in every game this year and has out-carried Theo Riddick 66 to 14. He’s not that far behind Riddick in receptions either (9 vs. 14).
Nelson and Bryant give you access to the passing attacks in what should be the highest-scoring game of the week. Bryant has a premier individual WR-CB matchup, while Nelson leads the league in touchdowns and is arguably the best threat to score in any given week.
Diggs is first in yards (391) and third in touchdowns (4) this year, and this week he has the best individual matchup among all wideouts, per the WR-CB matchup chart. Plus, Sam Bradford might play.
Jaron Brown, Arizona Cardinals
Brown ranks tied for seventh in targets (27) over the past three weeks and he’s at or near min-priced on both major sites.
Aldrick Robinson, San Francisco 49ers
Robinson’s lock status is completely dependent on Marquise Goodwin’s availability. Robinson saw 12 targets last week and is only $100 above min-price on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
This only applies if Marcus Mariota plays. Matthews averages a healthy 7-8 targets per week and is a safe bet to return value based on his salary in cash games.
Kelce has eight 100-yard receiving games in his last 14 regular season outings. (It’s 8-for-13 if you exclude the meaningless Week 17 game from last year.) The Texans have been above average against tight ends overall, but they were exposed by Rob Gronkowski and New England’s tight ends for a 9-108-1 line in Week 3.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
This only applies if Marcus Mariota plays. The Dolphins have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, including a 10-101-1 eruption by Chargers tight ends in Week 2.
Clay has been the epitome of a gash game tight end through four weeks. He ranks sixth in targets (26) and receptions (18), fourth in yards (227), and tied for third in touchdowns (2).
“ASJ” gets the dream matchup against the Browns in Week 5. The Browns have given up the second-most fantasy PPG to tight ends, including the most receptions (30) and second-most touchdowns (4). They have given up two two-touchdown games to opposing tight ends units so far this year.