Week 13 DFS locks of the week
If we pretend like I didn’t write up Kareem Hunt, then last week’s DFS lock list was on the money, and you probably won some money by inserting those players into your lineups.
We’re looking for more of the same in Week 13, minus a Hunt-like miss. Here’s the list of players you can lock into your Week 13 DFS lineups for Sunday’s main slate.
Note: There’s always a case to be made for playing any player in tournaments. This list of “locks” is cash game focused, but I typically like these players across all contest types.
Rivers has multiple scores in three straight games and now gets a home date with the Browns, who have given up the eighth-most fantasy PPG to opposing quarterbacks on the year — and Cleveland hasn’t faced many good quarterbacks this year either.
Goff has been let loose this year, and he has 37 or more passing attempts in four of his past five games, and in five of his past seven. He has multiple touchdowns and 300-plus yards in three of his past four, and this week he gets the Arizona Cardinals, who have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year.
Smith is bad, but so is the Raiders pass defense, and Smith is min-priced across the industry. Smith as scored 407.78 standard-league fantasy points since entering the league on 1,009 dropbacks, good for 0.40 points per dropback. Eli Manning has averaged 38.6 dropbacks per game so far this year. Assuming Smith gets 38 dropbacks and scores his average PPDB, he should be looking at about 15 fantasy points, which should be enough to return value on his salary in cash games.
*Note: Smith is a lock only if he is expected to play the entire game. If word comes out that Davis Webb is expected to play in Week 13, then Smith becomes too risky to roster in cash.
The Bills should get trounced by the Patriots, but McCoy’s usage in the passing game makes him game-script immune, and I always love playing him at home in the Ralph. His home-road splits are huge: 4.5 YPC vs. 3.4 YPC; 3 rushing TDs vs. 1 rushing TD; 116.6 total YPG vs. 78.3 YPG.
After a bad Week 12 (12 attempts for 25 yards), Fournette will rebound in Week 13 as 9.5-point home favorites against the Colts, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year.
You have to like Howard at home against the San Francisco 49ers, who have given up a league-high 304 rushing attempts against while surrendering the most fantasy PPG to enemy backs this year. The Bears are home favorites, which is something you should always look for in a cash running back.
It’s hard not to like Collins at his extremely low tag (just $4,500 on DraftKings) with the matchup (home against the Lions). Detroit has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, including at least one rushing touchdown against in all but two games this year, including six straight. I wouldn’t play Collins in tournaments, but he’s returned value on his salary in three of his past four games — and his price really hasn’t changed.
Williams has 20-plus touches in three straight games, and while he hasn’t topped 70 rushing yards in any game, he does have 95-plus total yards from scrimmage in two straight, and he displayed a nice ceiling with two touchdowns in Week 12. Williams is a cheap lock for 20-plus attempts against a bottom-half Bucs run defense.
Hopkins was on another planet with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but he’s still pretty dang good even with Tom Savage. This week he gets division rival Tennessee, who have given up the seventh-most fantasy PPG to opposing receivers this year. Hopkins has some impressive game logs against the Titans in his career, including 10-107-1 earlier this year, 7-123-0 last year, 7-117-1 and 8-94-1 in 2015, 9-238-2 in 2014, and 7-117-1 in 2013.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Adams seems miraculously immune to Aaron Rodgers’ absence, and this week he gets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who can’t cover anyone in the secondary and have given up by far the most fantasy PPG to opposing receivers.
Keep an eye on Jameis Winston’s injury status, but Evans is primed for a big game against the Green Bay Packers, who have given up the fourth-most fantasy PPG to opposing receivers this year and are fresh off being pantsed by Antonio Brown to the tune of 10-169-2.
Anderson’s amazing streak continues. He now has at least one touchdown in five straight games, and he hast least least five receptions in each one of those games as well. His draw against the Chiefs is great as well, as he will run about 60 percent of his routes away from Marcus Peters’ coverage. As a unit, the Chiefs have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year.
Cook had just one catch for one yard last week, but he did have a touchdown wiped off the board, and he did see five targets for the fifth straight week. This week the Michael Crabtree-less Raiders take on the Giants, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year.
Walker finally found the end zone in Week 12, and he now has at least five targets in all but one game this year. Walker gets a shot at another good game in Week 13 against the Texans, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy PPG to tight ends this year.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce has a good draw against the Jets, a bottom-10 team against tight ends this year. As Kansas City’s offense has faltered over the past month, Kelce’s production has remained steady (with the exception of last week, which will only serve to reduce his ownership).