DFS guide: Week 9 in DraftKings tournaments
Welcome to our Week 9 look at DraftKings tournaments, finding the right strategies and players for the DFS game.
Week 9 is already off to a bumpy ride given all the news circulating around the NFL this week. I’ll try to sift through the noise and find the best optimal plays while providing overall roster construction thoughts for tournaments heading into Week 9. Hopefully Thursday night’s game isn’t a precursor for what’s to come. LeSean McCoy (2.5 points — yeeesh) already showed us the week-to-week variance we can expect in the NFL. Let’s dive into this week’s slate and try to find the other side of variance that can lead to us taking down a GPP.
(For the DraftKings cash game guide, click here)
After the Deshaun Watson news, I’m going to be finding ways to mini gamestack several games that I believe have a chance for exceeding their current projected total. The DAL-KC game is a strong option to target in tournaments. I mentioned Dak Prescott in my cash game walkthrough as a strong option in cash games, but believe he’s equally strong in tournaments given his upside and the fact that he may call his own number on running plays without Ezekiel Elliott (suspended) in the fold.
On the other side of that game, there’s merit to rostering Alex Smith ($6,500) as a contrarian way to gain exposure to this projected 52-point blowout. Smith will likely come in at half the ownership of Prescott, but their range of outcomes doesn’t differ as most would expect. In fact, Smith doubles the number of top-six weeks that Prescott has put up this year (4 to 2). Smith has scored 27 or more fantasy points in half his games this season, averaging three touchdowns per game in such contests. Given the projected nature of this blowout, another one might be up his sleeve.
An even more contrarian play than Smith would be targeting Carson Wentz ($6,100) against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos’ defensive strength is in its strong cornerbacks, but Wentz should have little trouble exposing the liability in pass coverage they have defending opposing tight ends. 24.2 percent of his attempts are in Zach Ertz’ direction, who’s having a banner year in 2017. Four of the seven opponents the Broncos have faced have thrown for two or more passing touchdowns against them. Wentz is currently playing at home as a 7.5-point favorite in what could be an up-tempo game with two of the top three teams in snaps per game playing each other.
Drew Brees ($7,000) also merits a nod here for tournament consideration. The Buccaneers defense could be the “get-right” game that Brees and the Saints passing offense needs to get back on track. Tampa Bay has allowed either 300 passing yards or multiple passing touchdowns in 5-of-7 games this year. The Bucs rank top-six in most passing yards allowed and top-six in highest yards per attempt. Only the Browns have allowed more top-six fantasy outings to opposing quarterbacks than the Buccaneers defense so far this year. Love stacking Brees with his primary weapon in Michael Thomas this week with the Saints playing at home in a projected NFC South shootout.