DFS guide: Week 5 in DraftKings tournaments
Here we go. We’re finally into the grind of the NFL season where things get exciting. We’ve got enough data to make sound conclusions about where things are headed for each particular team, and we’re starting to get into bye weeks to lower our player pool. The more data we have on our side, the bigger advantage we have against our opponents who are either unknowing or unwilling to use it. That just creates a bigger edge for us to take advantage of in tournaments. Let’s get to it.
(For the DraftKIngs cash game guide, click here)
This week’s projected highest-scoring game features the Packers traveling to Dallas in what Vegas has a current 52-point game total. Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) is priced more than $1,000 higher than the next quarterback on the slate, but we should still expect heavy ownership for him this week.
The Packers are currently 2.5-point dogs, and given the injuries that the team is facing along the offensive line and at running back, we could see Rodgers and company revert back to their 2016 pass tendencies where they ranked second in the league in pass-play percentage. The Cowboys defense — particularly the corners — are dreadful. The defensive unit is allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns and eighth-most passing yards to opposing QBs. Overall they’ve given up the sixth-most fantasy points on DK to opposing QBs, which could lead to a big day for Rodgers who is averaging 24.0 FPPG. Rodgers entered this week tied with Tom Brady for leading the league with passing touchdowns (10), and Rodgers currently has thrown for the third-most passing yards.
I argued for Dak Prescott in the Week 5 DraftKings Cash Guide, so I won’t repeat my argument here, but the two of them make for some interesting gamestacks to pursue. Instead, I’ll make a contrarian argument for rostering Ben Roethlisberger ($6,400). I really like the idea of playing Big Ben at home against this Jacksonville squad that suddenly has people fearing them. I think we could get low ownership in a spot where Big Ben thrives as a contrarian quarterback/stacking option. Roethlisberger with Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant will largely go under-owned by the masses, but Roethlisberger has averaged 26.4 DK points at home dating back to 2014. He has scored less than 15 points in just three of 22 games played during that span. He’s averaged 2.9 passing TDs at home vs 1.1 away during that time frame. I’ll let others get spooked from the Jalen Ramsey/A.J. Bouye tandem and have some heavier exposure to this passing attack than the crowd.
I haven’t heard a lot of chatter around Matthew Stafford ($6,300) this week, but he looks like an interesting low-owned candidate with a chance to play well this week. The Lions’ speedy receivers should be able to utilize their quickness to find gaps in the Panthers’ zone coverage defense. Stafford could dink-and-dunk his way up and down the field all day. I’m expecting the Lions to up their tempo after a slow week last week and utilize their league-leading no-huddle offense (32.8 percent) to the chagrin of Carolina’s defenders.