We’re here, guys. Week 1 has arrived.
If you’re a DFS player anything like me, your goal is to try to find a way to walk away with one of those big payouts. That’s why I spend a ton of time thinking about how to attack GPPs from both a player pool and game selection perspective. It’s important to know going into the season what your goals are as DFS player. Are you here to make a steady profit? Are you here to try your shot at a BILLION DOLLARS?
If going for the steady profit route, cash games may be more your style. If you’re looking for those big payouts, well, then you’re at the right place. However, those big payouts often come at a cost – the ability to think outside the box.
Thursday night’s game was a perfect example. Kareem Hunt went off for 49.6 DK points. Alex Smith threw four passing touchdowns and put up 34.02 DK points. It was the highest DraftKings score of Smith’s career. Who saw that coming in the season opener against the Patriots of all teams?
And that’s my exact point. To take down one of these contests with a large payout, you’re going to need to think outside the box with some unconventional thinking. I take the mantra, “if you ain’t first, you’re last” to heart when it comes to roster construction in these tournaments. As such, some of the recommendations here may be a little more “off the wall”, but the intention is to find low-owned players with high touchdown upside. Sometimes the recommendations here may be in poor matchups on paper, or some may be projected for low touches due to negative game script, but if we can find a way to tell ourselves a story if things go wrong or against the grain of consensus, we could find our lineups quite different from the crowd and perhaps it’s just enough to vault us up to the top of a GPP leaderboard. Let’s dive into Week 1.
(For the DraftKings cash guide, click here)
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($7,000)
Over the last three years, Rodgers leads all quarterbacks with multi-passing TD games at home. He’s done so in 21-of-24 games. After an up-and-down start to the season, Rodgers averaged 27.3 DK points over his last eight games in 2016. Rodgers is perfect for chasing upside, owning one of the highest ceilings at the position week in and week out. The last time he faced Seattle he was priced at $6.4K, so we aren’t getting quite the same bargain, but he still threw for three touchdowns in that matchup and 21.2 DK points. Ownership for QBs doesn’t really matter as there’s so many ways to differentiate lineups, but suppressed ownership of Rodgers is certainly worth gaining some exposure to in any week.
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals ($6,000)
Palmer is priced in the bargain bin to start the season after his atrocious 2016, but people are quick to forget that he was a dominant quarterback in the 2015 season. His weapons are almost all going to be in plus-matchups, particularly Larry Fitzgerald operating out of the slot against one of our worst-ranked slot cornerbacks in Quandre Diggs. Diggs was atrocious, finishing bottom-five in both passer rating allowed and yards allowed per snap in coverage among all slot cornerbacks. Palmer will also be getting back a healthy John Brown, who should be ready to go after battling a quad injury for much of the summer. Brown caught 2-of-2 in his only preseason action for 49 yards and two touchdowns. David Johnson (listed below) is in another great situation with the chance to burn Detroit’s linebackers out of the backfield regularly for receptions. I like Palmer a ton given that all his weapons are in plus-matchups, and he makes for some intriguing game stacks alongside Johnson.
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