Week 8 DFS fades and players to avoid
Over the weekend, I was able to take in the move The Accountant with Ben Affleck, and in the opening scene there is a child putting together a puzzle. It just so happens that a piece of the puzzle is missing, and he starts to panic.
I feel that way with DFS sometimes. It’s like solving a weekly puzzle, and if you’re missing a piece, it can ruin what was a great lineup.
We all know it’s important to know who the best plays of the week are, but it’s just as important to know which players to avoid. That’s why the start to your DFS research should take place right here, with the weekly fades. And as a weekly reminder, just because a player is a fade, it doesn’t mean he won’t play well. It just means that he likely won’t be worth his price, considering similarly priced alternatives, who’ll likely have a lower ownership percentage.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $7,700)
It’s been pretty predictable knowing when to play Stafford and when to sit him over the last few years, as he plays well against bottom-16 pass defenses, and not so well against top-16 clubs. Here are his splits over the last three years:
|Top-16 pass defenses||17||22.8||36.0||234.6||1.6||0.8||19.8|
|Bottom-16 pass defenses||21||24.7||37.8||294.2||1.9||0.8||24.2|
The Texans have played extremely well against the pass this season, holding every quarterback they’ve played to 271 or less passing yards, and four of them to less than 205 yards. They’ve only allowed five passing touchdowns through seven games, but they have allowed two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, inflating the overall numbers against them. When you play Stafford, you’re often doing it expecting volume. Just know that he’ll have to be as efficient as ever, because Texans opponents have averaged just 28.7 pass attempts. A large reason is because they control the tempo through their run game with Lamar Miller, so it’s important to note that the Lions are allowing 4.88 yards per carry on the season. On the road in a tough matchup? That’s a fade.