Week 7 DFS fades and players to avoid
Going back through the Week 6 DFS fades advice, the only misses were on the Falcons players, who showed up in a big way despite playing in Seattle. The injuries to Kam Chancellor (who missed the game) and Michael Bennett (got hurt midway through) definitely affected the outcome, but still, it was impressive on the Falcons’ end. Ezekiel Elliott had an impressive game against the Packers, but turned out to be a good fade at his price, where I recommended you go with LeSean McCoy, Lamar Miller or Christine Michael instead. While Elliott didn’t have a bad game, all of them out-produced his 19.4 PPR points.
Heading into Week 7, we have nearly half of a season of data to go through in order to give you the best fades in DFS. It’s also very important to remember that just because a player is a fade, it doesn’t mean he won’t play well. It just means that he likely won’t be worth his price, considering similarly priced alternatives, who’ll likely have a lower ownership percentage. With that being said, let’s take a look at which players should you be fading in Week 7.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $8,500)
It seems that everyone knows Brees’ home and away splits at this point, but it’s important that we cover them, because they are ever-evolving. Keeping it relevant with the last three years, Brees averages 342 yards, 2.6 touchdowns and 29.1 fantasy points at home, while averaging 291 yards, 1.7 touchdowns, and 21.6 fantasy points on the road. While those road numbers aren’t as bad as, say, Ben Roethlisberger’s, they are definitely down. On top of that, Arrowhead Stadium is known as one of the toughest places to play for an opponent, and the Chiefs’ numbers back that up. Here is a chart of what the Chiefs defense has allowed at home versus on the road since the start of 2015:
|Opp YPA||Opp YPG||Opp TD/Gm||Opp FPts|
|Chiefs pass defense at home||5.9||225.9||1.2||11.7|
|Chiefs pass defense on the road||7.4||268.4||1.9||15.5|
So when adding it all up, this is about as negative of correlation as you can find. While I don’t think Brees falls flat on his face, he is simply not worth his price tag of $7,400 on DraftKings or $8,500 on FanDuel.