Fantasy News & Analysis

Buyer Beware: 4 fantasy options with especially low floors

OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 19: Marshawn Lynch #24 of the Oakland Raiders lines up in the backfield against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter of their preseason NFL football game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on August 19, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

The third week of the preseason is upon us and fantasy draft season is underway. There are several ways of looking at a player and his stock. Obviously, you want to focus on as many facets of performance as possible, but sometimes it’s helpful to eye a player’s ceiling, while other times you want to look at floor.

Today, it’s floor. Below are four players who have lower floors than guys being drafted around them, based on ADP. That generally (though not always) means they do have a higher ceiling as well, but with the concerns of the floor, fantasy owners have to tread lightly. It’s all Buyer Beware.

(All ADPs are from FantasyPros, which uses the average of many sites.)

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Newton is currently being selected as a top-10 (No. 9) fantasy quarterback and approximately 75th overall. While he likely will play better than he did last season, it’s hard to imagine him reaching the lofty totals he amassed in 2015. He’s coming off shoulder surgery in March, which may have accounted for some of his late-season struggles last year.

A quarterback with shoulder issues will definitely bring up red flags and we’ll need to see how Newton’s arm looks in game action (he’s on track to start the third preseason game). A lot of Newton’s fantasy appeal over the years has been his ability to generate production with his legs, as he’s rushed for 48 regular-season touchdowns. Talk out of Panthers training camp is that the team wants Newton to run the ball less and get rid of the ball quicker. That does not bode well for fantasy purposes. If Newton doesn’t bring the threat of those rushing yards and scores he’s had in the past then a top-10 finish is not in sight.

There’s also quite a few questions regarding Newton’s receiving options outside of tight end Greg Olsen. Kelvin Benjamin continues to struggle with conditioning and Devin Funchess has 14 dropped passes in his first two seasons. Rookie Christian McCaffrey may be an option but after that the receiving corps is questionable.

(Quarterbacks with a lower ADP and higher floor than Newton: Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott.)

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders

Nostalgia can cloud fantasy owners’ sight as they approach draft day and that can be the only explanation for Lynch’s current ADP. He is currently coming off the board at roughly 25th overall and as the 12th running back selected. Yes, from 2011 to 2014 Lynch was in full-on “Beast Mode,” racking up 56 total touchdowns and posted four top-five finishes among fantasy running backs.

But that was then, and this is now. Lynch is 19 months removed from his last regular-season action and appeared to be a player on the decline when he last played. His 2015 campaign was an injury-marred mess, as he started only six games and averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Lynch is now 31 years old, which is a dangerous plateau for running backs.

Lynch also joins a backfield featuring a couple of talented youngsters in Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. The duo combined for 216 total touches last season, putting up 1,268 total yards and 5 touchdowns. It’s hard to imagine Lynch will be the workhorse back he was in Seattle with Richard and Washington continuing to have roles in the offense. The Raiders have an above-average passing attack and throw the ball plenty, further capping Lynch’s value.

(Running backs with a lower ADP than Lynch with a higher floor: Lamar Miller, Isaiah Crowell, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey.)

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

As a fan of Allen (I had the opportunity to interview him back in 2013 as he prepared for the draft) it pains me to put him on this list. Allen is currently coming off the board as the 17th wide receiver selected and roughly 42nd overall, and his floor is too low for those draft slots.

First, we must consider the injury history when evaluating Allen. A knee injury ended his final season at Cal and was the main reason he fell to the third round where the Chargers selected him. In 2015, he suffered a lacerated kidney, and a torn ACL last season in Week 1 was the latest injury on the list and Allen has played just nine games in the past two seasons.

While predicting injuries is impossible, it’s important to consider the wear and tear multiple significant setbacks can have on a player. Reports out of Chargers training camp have been favorable regarding Allen, stating he has looked quick and sharp in his route-running, but that’s not live action.

Allen’s best season was his rookie campaign, when he finished as the No. 17 fantasy wide receiver in standard scoring formats. In that season, he saw 21 red-zone targets, but has seen just 20 in the past three injury-plagued years combined. Last season, Philip Rivers looked to tight end Antonio Gates 22 times in the red zone and Hunter Henry 17 times. That is unlikely to change in 2017 despite the return of Allen, and it lowers his value.

There are a lot of offensive mouths to feed in the Chargers passing game and Rivers targeted five different players at least 50 times a year ago. Even a healthy Allen will struggle to reach his lofty ADP with Tyrell Williams, Melvin Gordon, Travis Benjamin, and the aforementioned tight ends eating up targets.

(Wide receivers with a lower ADP that have higher floors that Allen: Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, Jarvis Landry, Kelvin Benjamin.)

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings

It took six seasons, but Rudolph finally lived up to expectations by putting up a top-10 fantasy season among tight ends (he had finished 10th in 2012). His 83 receptions, 840 yards, and 7 touchdowns were good enough for a top-five finish in many scoring formats. That’s all well and good, but a closer look at just why Rudolph broke out may explain why his current ADP as the eighth tight end selected is a tad high.

Prior to last season, Rudolph had cracked the top-20 just twice for fantasy purposes and finished outside the top-30 three times. The 132 targets he saw last season were far and away the most Rudolph has seen. That brings us to the Sam Bradford effect. When Teddy Bridgewater went down for the season, the Vikings scrambled to bring the veteran Bradford on board late in the preseason.

A quarterback with a steep learning curve in a new offense will often develop a chemistry with a particular player to lean on as he continues to learn the offense. That is exactly what Bradford did and the rapport he developed with Rudolph may have led to the breakout season. Bradford targeted Rudolph 25 times in the red zone, which was 12 more looks than the next-closest receiving option, Stefon Diggs (13).

Heading into 2017, Bradford will have had a complete offseason as well as training camp to master the offense and that will likely lead to spreading the ball around more as defenses scheme to account for Rudolph. Diggs has quietly emerged as a viable fantasy option and will likely top the 100-target plateau once again and Adam Thielen will have an expanded role as well. Throw in exciting rookie running back Dalvin Cook and Bradford has plenty of offensive toys to play with besides Rudolph.

(Tight ends with a lower ADP and a higher floor than Rudolph: Martellus Bennett, Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry.)

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit