Boom/bust report: Which Week 7 DFS options could pop?

Boom – to flourish vigorously
Bust – a worthless thing

Daily fantasy sports is a hyper-nuanced game. Theory can inform personal ownership stakes, or desirable plays can be identified and then analyzed for fit. I prefer the latter method. Which players do I want to be heavier on than the field, and which players do I want to be light on, or avoid entirely? The boom/bust report will feature players that fit the following descriptions: a boom is a high-priced stud with favorable conditions to hit 3x value, or a lower priced player with favorable conditions to hit 4x value. A bust is any player with unfavorable conditions to hit 3x value, regardless of salary.

Booms

Quarterback

Russell Wilson ($6400, QB7) vs. New York Giants

Although the Seahawks travel east to face the Giants, this isn’t a typical road trip. Wilson had a bye week to prepare and the team doesn’t have to travel on a tight schedule as if they weren’t on a bye. The Giants have allowed an 11:3 TD:INT ratio this season and have also surrendered 94 yards on the ground to quarterbacks. The Giants have only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season. Seattle has an implied team total of 22.5. Wilson looks like a solid bet to score several touchdowns.

Running back

Leonard Fournette ($8600, RB3) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Fournette continues to set the world on fire via considerable volume and the occasional big play. I expect the dominating performances to continue this week against the Colts, who have allowed the second-most touchdowns to running backs (eight) this season. The Colts are also allowing the fourth-most PPR points to running backs per game. The Jaguars are road favorites (-3.5) and should be close or leading for most of this game.

Wide receiver

Adam Thielen ($6700, WR11) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Stefon Diggs looks like a scratch again this week, leaving Thielen as the alpha receiver, a role he has performed admirably in thus far this season. Thielen should matchup with Ravens cornerback Lardarius Webb, and if he does, watch out. I like Thielen to flirt with the 100-yard bonus this week and grab at least seven receptions.

Tight end

Hunter Henry ($4200, TE8) vs. Denver Broncos

Henry broke out last week in a big way, hauling in five receptions and 90 receiving yards. This was the second consecutive week he saw seven looks in the passing game. The tight end should benefit from a favorable matchup against the Broncos, who rank bottom-five in points allowed to tight ends. Look for Philip Rivers to try to exploit Henry against the Denver safeties rather risk forcing the ball to the perimeter against one of the league’s top cornerback groups.

Busts

Quarterback

Jameis Winston ($6000, QB9) vs. Buffalo Bills

Winston travels north to Buffalo and faces a stingy defense that has only given up two passing touchdowns this season. The Bills have also intercepted opposing passers eight times, good for third in the NFL. Winston is also battling a shoulder injury and there’s a chance he could be a game-time decision. If he is scratched, don’t be tempted by backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills defense is a clear avoid situation for fantasy quarterbacks this season.

Running back

Melvin Gordon ($7000, RB7) vs. Denver Broncos

Gordon blew up last week, but should cool off immediately against a Denver defense that limited him to 79 total yards and a (receiving) touchdown in Week 1. That’s reasonable output for your weekly leagues, but it’s much less than we aim for when spending 7k in DraftKings salary. Denver has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season and is holding runners to three yards per carry.

Wide receiver

T.Y. Hilton ($6,100, WR15) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Hilton will have to wait another week to get back on track. The Jaguars secondary is a brutal matchup for any wide receiver this season, allowing just one receiving touchdown on 39 receptions to the position. Only one other defense has held opposing wide receivers to under 50 receptions. The Colts were happy to let Hilton be a decoy in Week 6 and there’s no reason to doubt they’ll deploy the same strategy in week seven, given the spot.

Tight end

Cameron Brate ($4700, TE4) vs. Buffalo Bills

Brate has been a great investment so far this season, but fade him this week against the Bills (for many of the reasons I mentioned when covering Winston). The Bills have also been a rough matchup for opposing tight ends, as they are one of only six defenses yet to allow a touchdown to the position.