Boom/bust report: Which Week 5 DFS options could pop?
Boom – to flourish vigorously
Bust – a worthless thing
Daily fantasy sports is a hyper-nuanced game. Theory can inform personal ownership stakes, or desirable plays can be identified and then analyzed for fit. I prefer the latter method. Which players do I want to be heavier on than the field, and which players do I want to be light on, or avoid entirely? The boom/bust report will feature players that fit the following descriptions: a boom is a high-priced stud with favorable conditions to hit 3x value, or a lower priced player with favorable conditions to hit 4x value. A bust is any player with unfavorable conditions to hit 3x value, regardless of salary.
(Prices and advice based on DraftKings salaries)
The Giants have opened up the offense the past two weeks, showing increased pace and no-huddle rate. Manning has flourished, throwing for 654 yards and six total touchdowns. In a game featuring two 0-4 teams, I expect the Giants to try to force the Chargers out of their slower pace and think this game has the makings of a shootout. Manning has eclipsed 27 DraftKings points in consecutive weeks and I think he’s a good bet to make it three in a row against a Chargers team traveling east for an early game.
Coach Hue Jackson reiterated his belief in Crowell’s ability following another disappointing performance in week four, citing game scripts as the primary reason for his lack of production. This might be the best spot we see all season to use Crowell. He’s priced behind teammate Duke Johnson in a home game in which his team is favored and is facing the league’s third-worst team in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Through four weeks, the Jets have given up 656 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns to the position. Crowell is a sneaky, low-ownership boom play and frees up salary for the rest of your lineup.
Brown exploded for 105 yards and 21.5 DraftKings points last week in his first shot at a feature role. He scored one touchdown in week three and had a second called back due to a holding penalty. Carson Palmer is looking his way more often and together they face an Eagles secondary which has surrendered more receptions and more yards to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald will also be a popular play (with good reason), but Brown has similar upside at an extreme discount.
Opposing tight ends versus the Browns are nearing auto-start territory in DFS. Bengals reserve Tyler Kroft posted two touchdowns and over 60 receiving yards against the Browns last week. Seferian-Jenkins has 10 targets over the past two weeks and is also a fun way to play the Josh McCown revenge-game narrative.
Newton got it going in Week 4, but that was probably more about the Patriots defense than it was about the player. I expect him to struggle on the road against a tough Lions defense that ranks in the top-five in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and has produced seven interceptions over the first quarter of the season.
The Bengals have only allowed two rushing touchdowns to running backs this season and McCoy hasn’t scored any touchdowns in 2017. The Bengals are quietly ranked in the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to every position.
Williams will draw more of Janoris Jenkins than any of the other Chargers receiving corps. Priced as a WR2 coming off his huge Week 4 performance, this is a week to steer clear of the Los Angeles beta-target.
Ertz faces off against a Cardinals defense that is holding opposing tight ends to under 37 yards per game and has yet to allow a touchdown to the position. I expect Ertz to fare better than others have against the unit, but I can’t buy-in at overall TE1 pricing this week.