Boom/bust report: Which Week 3 DFS options could pop?

Boom – to flourish vigorously
Bust – a worthless thing

Daily fantasy sports is a hyper-nuanced game. Theory can inform personal ownership stakes, or desirable plays can be identified and then analyzed for fit. I prefer the latter method. Which players do I want to be heavier on than the field, and which players do I want to be light on, or avoid entirely? The boom/bust report will feature players that fit the following descriptions: a boom is a high-priced stud with favorable conditions to hit 3x value, or a lower priced player with favorable conditions to hit 4x value. A bust is any player with unfavorable conditions to hit 3x value, regardless of salary.

(Prices and advice based on DraftKings salaries)

Week 3 booms

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford ($6200, QB10) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Stafford leads the NFL in passing touchdowns through two weeks (6) and hosts the Falcons in a game with the second-highest over/under in Week 3. The Lions will need to score early and often to keep pace with Matt Ryan and company, and that bodes well for Stafford’s fantasy prospects. Many analysts will focus on the Lions running backs in this matchup because the Falcons are second-worst against the position in PPR points allowed thus far. However, much of that production (143 yards and two touchdowns) has been in the receiving game, which means Stafford also benefits.

Running back

Jay Ajayi ($7700, RB3) @ New York Jets

Ajayi was on the field for more than 90 percent of snaps in the Dolphins first game and looks to be the definition of a bell cow in Adam Gase’s offense this season. The Jets allowed three rushing touchdowns and 275 rushing yards in their first two games. Miami is favored by a touchdown in this game despite being on the road. This shapes up as a positive game script for Ajayi and RB1 overall is not out of the question this week.

Wide receiver

Stefon Diggs ($5600, WR20) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Diggs faces a Tampa Bay defense which allowed 204 receiving yards to the vaunted Chicago Bears wide receiver corps in Week 2, at home. I’m almost a little scared for this defense against the Vikings impressive duo of Diggs and Adam Thielen. Diggs’ price was driven down following a poor road performance in which his starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, did not play. Diggs returns home to Minnesota this week, and Bradford is slated to return.

Tight end

Jack Doyle ($3600, TE14) vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have been a defense to target for streaming tight ends dating back to last season. In 2017, they’ve allowed 23.7 PPR points per game to such superstars as Jesse James and Ben Watson. As crazy as it sounds, Doyle may be the best tight end they’ve faced yet. New Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett targeted Doyle eight times in his first start, and the pair connected on all eight attempts for 79 yards.

Busts

Quarterback

Drew Brees ($7200, QB3) @ Carolina Panthers

In the past two seasons, Brees averages less than two passing touchdowns per game outdoors and the Panthers have yet to allow a passing touchdown this season. The Panthers also feature two top-20 interior pass rushers in terms of pass rushing productivity and Brees has been mediocre against the pass rush this season with a QB rating of just 67.5 when under pressure.

Running back

LeSean McCoy ($7000, RB5) vs. Denver Broncos

McCoy faces a Broncos defense that is allowing just 2.42 yards per carry and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown through two games. Overall, the Broncos are ranked sixth among NFL defenses in PPR points allowed to running backs per game on the season. Since arriving in Buffalo, McCoy has scored only five touchdowns in the team’s 15 losses. The Bills are currently Vegas home underdogs at +1.5.

Wide receiver

Amari Cooper ($7100, WR10) @ Washington Redskins

The Raider travel cross-country to face Washington in primetime Sunday. Cooper has not been his best under the lights, averaging an unimpressive line of just 4.25/38/0.25 in four career night games (three of these were in 2016). The Redskins have only allowed one touchdown to wide receivers in 2017, and also figure to shadow Cooper with Josh Norman. The Redskins have allowed three touchdowns to running backs and have also been susceptible to big plays from tight ends. I’m finding too many reasons to fade Cooper at this price.

Tight end

Tyler Eifert ($3900, TE11) @ Green Bay Packers

The Packers have been a brutal draw for opposing tight ends in fantasy this season. Despite facing two very capable scorers in Jimmy Graham and Austin Hooper, Green Bay ranks second in PPR points allowed to the position, surrendering just 25 yards on six receptions through two games. Teams have found more success against this defense in the run game and via passing on the perimeter. This might bode well for teammates A.J. Green and Joe Mixon, who are near locks for increased usage after the Bengals installed a new offensive coordinator following their Week 2 loss.