Hello, and welcome to the Week 8 Actual Opportunity Report. Actual Opportunity is our approximation of how many fantasy points a player should score based on workload. If you’re unfamiliar with Actual Opportunity and how it applies to fantasy football, you can read the in-depth explanation here.
Essentially, we’re using a 10-season sample of play-by-play data to calculate expected fantasy points from a player’s seasonal or weekly usage. We look at each target (by distance from the end zone and depth of target) and each carry (by distance from the end zone and down and distance) and add this up to determine how valuable a player’s role is for fantasy purposes. We can contrast this with fantasy production to measure efficiency.
In layman’s terms, Actual Opportunity is “how many points a player should have scored” given his workload, based on what the average player would have scored. “Expected fantasy points” will be used interchangeably with “Actual Opportunity” throughout this article.
Through seven weeks, here are the top-30 players in expected fantasy points per game:
And some thoughts on some key names:
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
(AO: 17.1, PPR: 16.3)
Over the past four weeks, Ingram ranks fifth-best among all players in expected fantasy points per game. Over the course of the full season, and despite Adrian Peterson eating into his workload for the majority of this stretch, Ingram still ranks eighth among running backs in expected fantasy points per game. Ingram is one of my preferred trade targets at the moment, even with Alvin Kamara also seeing a significant workload (he ranked 12th among running backs in expected fantasy points last week). This might be bold, but I feel like he’s a safe bet to finish the season as a mid-to-low-range RB1. Here’s a full breakdown of how he compares to Devonta Freeman (who I’d bet he outscores this year) through six games:
Is it bold to say Mark Ingram outscores Devonta Freeman this year? I'd bet he does by a margin. pic.twitter.com/MJZmq8FySq
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 23, 2017
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
Already have a subscription? Log In
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.