Welcome to the Week 14 Actual Opportunity Report. Actual Opportunity is our approximation of how many fantasy points a player should score based on workload. If you’re unfamiliar with Actual Opportunity and how it applies to fantasy football, you can read the in-depth explanation here.
Essentially, we’re using a 10-season sample of play-by-play data to calculate expected fantasy points from a player’s seasonal or weekly usage. We look at each target (by distance from the end zone and depth of target) and each carry (by distance from the end zone and down and distance) and add this up to determine how valuable a player’s role is for fantasy purposes. We can contrast this with fantasy production to measure efficiency.
In layman’s terms, Actual Opportunity is “how many points a player should have scored” given his workload, based on what the average player would have scored. “Expected fantasy points” will be used interchangeably with “Actual Opportunity” throughout this article.
Through 13 weeks, here are the top 35 players in expected fantasy points per game. After that, we’ll look at some notable standouts:
(AO: 12.1, PPR: 16.1)
Hill was our most efficient player in Week 13, drawing 15.5 expected fantasy points and scoring 36.5, on the back of three 40-plus-yard catches, two of which resulting in touchdowns. Hill saw eight targets, with five of these coming on deep passes. He’s scored 48.1 fantasy points above his expectation this season, which ranks second-best among all players this year. Hill will continue to be what he’s always been for a fantasy – a hyper-efficient and unpredictable boom-or-bust wide receiver with one of the highest ceilings in the game.