DRAFT offers a unique spin on DFS cash games and tournaments. Instead of building a lineup based on an allotted salary, on DRAFT, you’re actually drafting a team against one or more opponents. I discussed my general strategy for the site here.
Today, I wanted to highlight my top options for Week 1. Without a salary to worry about, rather than trying to find the best value, I’m more concerned with raw point totals. In each section, I’ll highlight my projected top-scorer as well as some late-round steals.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks – In Week 1, Wilson should be your top quarterback to target. He ranks ahead of all other quarterbacks in our projections, and draws an especially soft matchup against a Green Bay Packers defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position last season. Though not playing at home (which would be ideal), we do project Seattle to outscore Green Bay in this contest, and because the differential is especially close (+0.8), we might expect this game to be a pass-heavy shootout. Doug Baldwin makes for a great stacking option in this contest.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Earl Thomas is on “on track” to play in Week 1, but is not a sure thing. Starting cornerback Deshawn Shead is unlikely to play in Week 1 recovering from an ACL injury, and as of Friday, the team was looking to move on from slot cornerback Jeremy Lane. This is not the same Seattle defense we’ve become accustomed to in years past. Last season, the Seahawks ranked just average in pressures per game and only slightly above average in opposing passer rating. Rodgers has put up over 20 fantasy points in each of his last two meetings with Seattle. As I mentioned earlier, this game has shootout potential, but one of the biggest perks in selecting Rodgers is we know exactly how he’ll attack this defense. As I wrote about here, he’ll likely avoid Davante Adams, who should be matched up against Richard Sherman for the majority of the game. Meanwhile, this means Jordy Nelson is the obvious stacking candidate.
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (late-round option) – Although Mariota struggled in his lone game against Oakland last season, the Raiders did allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last year. Last season, Mariota ranked fourth at the position in fantasy points per dropback, and the team added capable pass-catchers in Corey Davis and Eric Decker this offseason. Although Oakland's front-line is fairly impressive, Oakland's current starting linebackers and defensive backs all graded out average to poor last season. Tennessee has the fifth-highest implied point total this week, which should mean plenty of scoring opportunities for the league's most-efficient red-zone passer.
Running backs
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Stelers – No surprise here; Bell is our projected highest-scoring running back this week, after posting the highest fantasy-point-per-game average of any player the past decade in 2016. Bell also has the benefit of playing against a Cleveland Browns defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last season. As an added bonus, Bell should run behind plenty of positive gamescript, as the Steelers are projected to win by 6.6. If drafting from the 1.01 spot, Bell is the obvious choice.
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills – There’s not much to overthink here. McCoy scored the fourth-most fantasy points at the position, and gets set to face off against one of the worst rosters in the NFL. It’s true the Jets are more imposing against the run than via the pass, but McCoy’s own recent comments, as well as that of beat writers, indicate a larger workload in the passing game for McCoy. On DRAFT, a 0.5 PPR format, this should help buoy any lack of rushing efficiency. Still, the rushing potential is there, and McCoy should be running behind plenty of positive gamescript, as the Bills are projected to beat the Jets by seven points at home.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (late-round option) – As I’ve written about extensively all offseason, Hunt has been one of my favorite targets in any draft I’ve been a part of, and it’s not changing for me on DRAFT for Week 1. You should be able to land him in the last two rounds of your draft, due to a perceived poor matchup against New England. New England allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last season, but Hunt should be used as a gamescript-proof bell cow in Week 1. Andy Reid has said Hunt will be his “featured back” in Ware's absence. Hunt was both a capable runner and receiver last season in college, ranking first in missed tackles forced per touch, third in yards per route run, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt, among all 139 draft-eligible running backs last season. Over Reid’s last 13 seasons as a head coach, his featured running back has averaged 19.5 PPR fantasy points per game and 20.8 opportunities per game. Though the matchup may be rough, the volume will be there to make Hunt a worthwhile selection in the latter rounds.
Receivers
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers – Brown has averaged 24.6 fantasy points per game over his last three games against the Browns. Cleveland surrendered the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers last season, and just parted ways with top cornerback Joe Haden. For the second consecutive season, Brown has finished as the highest-scoring wide receiver on a points-per-game basis. Brown leads all receivers in projected Week 1 points, and, to me, is a no-brainer pick once Bell, McCoy, and David Johnson are off the board.
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (late-round value) – Fitzgerald will likely fall to the latter rounds of your draft, but he ends up near the top of my rankings. Fitzgerald is 34 years old, and will likely fade down the stretch in season-long leagues, but his legs will never be fresher than they are heading into Week 1. Through only the first five weeks of the season, Fitzgerald scored the fifth-most points at the position in 2016 and second-most in 2015. Last season, the Lions allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers running routes out of the slot. Fitzgerald ran 63.3 percent of his routes from the slot last season. He’ll be covered by Detroit’s slot cornerback, Quandre Diggs. Diggs was thrown at 46 times last season, and allowed a 91.3 completion percentage – the highest ever by a cornerback in the PFF era. He also ranked bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed on both a per-target and per-route basis.
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (late-round value) – Tight ends are often neglected at the flex position, because wide receivers typically outscore them at such a degree that they’re rarely viable in this five-round format. That said, Olsen is a great sleeper this week, falling below only five wide receivers in our projections. Last season, Olsen racked up a 5-122-1 line on eight targets against San Francisco. Olsen saw a massive role in 2016, but suffered in efficiency as quarterback Cam Newton dealt with a partially torn rotator cuff. Against a San Francisco defense with only three starters grading out as average or above, I like his chances of having a big game in Week 1.
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