Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy 5: Can Adrian Peterson learn some new tricks?

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JANUARY 10: Adrian Peterson #28 of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball during an NFL game against the Seattle Seahawks at TCF Bank Stadium January 10, 2016 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Tom Dahlin/Getty Images)

(The Fantasy 5 is a quick-hit wrap-up of some of the biggest news topics of the day for fantasy football players, giving you advice you need to improve your team.)

Fantasy football is a game, but there are numerous games within the game. Each week you compete against your individual opponent and against the entire league for things like waiver pickups. You also compete against the entire league on draft day. That’s right, your draft is just another game. And like any game, you play to win.

On draft day, you shouldn’t just be focused on your own team. Keep a close eye on your opponents, and make them pay for their mistakes. Like any game, being prepared is essential to success. In fantasy football, that means knowing as much as possible. Here are five things you need to know for Wednesday, July 12.

1. Adrian Peterson targeting 500 receiving yards

In what seems like an annual rite of passage, the football cognoscente are talking up Peterson as a receiver. Entering his age 32 season, Peterson has topped 400 receiving yards just once and that was all the way back in 2009, when he had 436 yards. Since then, he’s gone over 300 yards just once. So what makes us thing that this old dog can learn a new trick?

The common narrative is that Peterson joins Drew Brees, who has excelled at getting the ball to his backs. That’s certainly true, but let’s take a quick look at the backfield. Mark Ingram is still in house, as is Travaris Cadet. Those two combined for 102 targets last season. The Saints also drafted Alvin Kamara, who tied for the most forced missed tackles as a receiver among running backs last year.

All three players would figure to be ahead of Peterson in the target pecking order in the Saints backfield. In a best-case scenario, Peterson may see a similar target share to Tim Hightower last season. Hightower was targeted 23 times, and even that might be overly optimistic for Peterson if all four running backs make the 53-man roster.

Peterson is currently going as a fourth-round pick in ADP as the 19th running back off the board. That’s entirely too early given the surrounding question marks about Peterson’s role in the Saints offense. Fantasy drafters would be wise to take a pass on Peterson at his present ADP.

2. Competition for the 49ers running back job?

According to CSN Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco, “very few players have secured their starting jobs for the upcoming season.” That includes Carlos Hyde. Maiocco noted that Hyde is still the favorite to win the job, but there’s likely to be a committee in the 49ers backfield that will also include Tim Hightower and rookie Joe Williams.

While Hyde’s pro career has been a bit marred by injury, he’s been very effective as a runner when he’s been on the field. Last season, he averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per carry and forced 37 missed tackles as runner. That’s one more than Ezekiel Elliott, three more than Melvin Gordon and Devonta Freeman, and 14 more than Lamar Miller.

Fantasy drafters have cooled a bit on Hyde over the offseason with his ADP dipping to the early fourth round. Concerns about a committee are certainly warranted, but the bigger concern is the overall state of the 49ers offense. That being said, it’s tough to envision a scenario where Williams beats out Hyde. As the lead back, Hyde will get plenty of touches and is actually a relatively decent value if you can continue to get him in the fourth round.

3. Browns starter expected by second preseason game

The question on everyone’s lips this offseason is who will be under center for the Browns in 2017. Well, not really, but it is a question on at least some people’s lips. Okay, maybe a few people? Either way, we’re likely to get that answer in about a month, as the Browns are expected to name their starting signal-caller by the second preseason game.

Cleveland traded for Brock Osweiler over the offseason, but the battle is expected to come down to incumbent Cody Kessler and rookie second-rounder DeShone Kizer. Kessler is the favorite for the job, but Kizer reportedly continued to improve throughout spring practices. For fantasy purposes, Kizer offers the higher upside. He wouldn’t be likely to surface on the redraft radar in 1QB leagues, but his bigger arm bodes more positively for the Browns surrounding cast. To be continued …

4. Eric Ebron continues to be overlooked

There are only three certain things in life: death, taxes, and that the drafting public will undervalue Ebron in 2017. He’s currently going as the 14th tight end in ADP, which puts him in the 13th round. While that’s way too low, let’s not get too crazy here. We can keep Ebron our little secret and grab him for value in every draft.

Perhaps the biggest reason for Ebron’s depressed fantasy stock is his lack of touchdown productivity last year. He found the end zone just once. At the same time, he tied for ninth among tight ends in targets with 85, his 61 catches ranked 10th, and he finished eighth in yards with 711. Ebron has also been vocal about his excitement for his role in the offense this season. At just 24 years old and still on the upslope of his career, Ebron is poised to improve on last year’s numbers and provide a strong fantasy return on investment.

5. More throwing for Denver?

It’s the worst time of year for football news. Case in point: there was recently a story from the Denver beat on Emmanuel Sanders cutting fast food out of his diet. Yep, this is what passes for news in mid-July. But even in this steaming pile of fluff, we can garner some insightful information. In the article, Sanders says “We’ve got this new offense with Mike McCoy. We’re going to be throwing the ball around.”

No offense to Sanders and his improved diet, but this is the real story here. A new coaching regime is in place with McCoy rejoining the Broncos as the offensive coordinator after his stint in San Diego. When McCoy was last in this role in Denver, the Broncos racked up 283.4 passing yards per game. Last season they averaged just 230.3 per game.

Of course, there’s one glaring omission from this year’s edition of the Broncos: Peyton Manning. The future Hall of Famer threw for 4,659 yards and 37 scores in 2012. Neither Trevor Siemian nor Paxton Lynch will even sniff those numbers this season, but McCoy’s offense doesn’t figure to have a negative impact on Denver passing production from last season. Yet, the draft public doesn’t seem to have much interest in Demaryius Thomas or Sanders. Thomas currently has an ADP in the fourth round as the 18th wide receiver, and Sanders is going as the 35th receiver in the eighth round. Both players offer solid value in their current ADPs. Don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on either.

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