Chris Hogan worth monitoring in fantasy after joining the Patriots
The New England Patriots have signed former Buffalo Bills wideout Chris Hogan to a three-year, $12 million deal, according to Adam Schefter. The Bills had a chance to match the offer, but declined.
Despite being 27, Hogan has only three years of NFL experience under his belt. He has notched 87 receptions for 959 yards and six touchdowns in that span, with nearly all of that production coming in 2014 and 2015.
Hogan’s best game in 2015 came when he played against the Patriots. He caught six passes for 95 yards against them in late November. His best game in 2014 also came against the Patriots, when he caught five passes for 72 yards and scored.
It’s not surprising, then, that the Patriots were interested in Hogan when nobody else seemed to be. Hogan’s place in New England’s offense is a little harder to figure out.
Hogan is in a similar mold to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola; he’s a chain mover who will work over the middle and will likely make heavy use of timing routes. However, while Amendola may be the player Hogan steals snaps from and/or outright replaces, in the past, Hogan has been utilized in a manner similar to Edelman.
Last season, Hogan ran 56.2 percent of his routes from the slot. For comparison, Edelman ran 51.2 percent of his routes from the slot and Amendola was at 83.6 percent.
Since he plays a similar role to Edelman, it’s fair to think the Patriots brought him in to be Edelman insurance; the offense was woefully inefficient at times while Edelman was out of the lineup last season.
But Hogan could still see the field even if Edelman stays healthy. The Patriots got rid of Brandon LaFell after the 2015 season, and while they re-signed Keshawn Martin, he’s far from a lock in the lineup. And with Amendola’s status with the team still not set in stone, Hogan’s path to playing time could be traversable.
With that said, even if he does see the field a fair amount, he would be, at best, Tom Brady’s third option behind Edelman and Rob Gronkowski — and maybe even his fourth option if Dion Lewis or James White are heavily utilized again.
If Hogan is able to win a healthy amount of snaps with New England, he has flex potential in PPR leagues. But that’s the best case scenario.
The more likely scenario is that Hogan doesn’t see enough targets — at least consistently — to warrant immediate fantasy consideration. Knowing the Patriots, he could see 10 targets one week and just three over the next two weeks combined.
This is a situation that obviously warrants monitoring throughout the offseason. Even if Hogan gets buried on the depth chart, you should still keep tabs on him in case someone in New England gets injured.