5 impact games for CFB DFS
Welcome to the tenth edition of this column, where each week I examine a handful of DFS-relevant games expected to produce a large quantity of points. The idea here is that more points will lead to more opportunities for individual players to make an impact on fantasy rosters. This week, we will look at one game from each of the following conferences: American, Big 12, ACC, SEC and Pac 12.
In order to be included here, a game needed to appear in both DraftKings and FanDuel contests for the upcoming weekend. Also, I wanted to make sure that both slates were fairly represented, so we have three early games and two late games, instead of strictly looking at the five highest totals on the board.
SMU @ Memphis (early)
Projected total of 72 points
Memphis: The Tigers should have no problem moving the ball against a SMU defense that ranks 120th in yards-per-carry defense and 118th in pass efficiency defense. Note that the forecast calls for a rainy weekend in Memphis, so that could impact the game script.
This should come as good news for Paxton Lynch, who failed to throw a touchdown pass last week for the first time this year. Interestingly, since his 447 yard game at Tulsa in October, he’s seen his yardage totals decline in each subsequent game. I like Lynch to reverse the trend this week and throw for at least 300 yards and two touchdowns. He projects as my No. 4 quarterback, which is identical to his salary at both sites. He’s a solid value.
As much as I like Lynch, I think the Memphis ground game could also be in for a big day. In conference play this year, SMU has allowed 31 rushing touchdowns compared to just 10 passing touchdowns. The main beneficiary of this would appear to be Doroland Dorceus, who has emerged as the Tigers’ top back over the second half of the season. I project him as a borderline top 10 back, but his salary is 18th or worse at both sites, making him a terrific value.
Mose Frazier and Phil Mayhue continue to pace the receiving corps. They are the only two receivers with multiple catches in each of the last four games. That said, they touchdowns have been hard to come by, as the pair has combined for just three all season. With the return of Anthony Miller last week, the situation gets even murkier, but thanks to a pathetic SMU defense, I think all three are undervalued in what looks to be a big game for the Memphis offense.
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Jon Moore is a contributor at PFF Fantasy, RotoViz and TheCFX. Continue this conversation with him on Twitter @TheCFX.