5 impact games for CFB DFS
Welcome to the ninth edition of this column, where each week I examine a handful of DFS-relevant games expected to produce a large quantity of points. The idea here is that more points will lead to more opportunities for individual players to make an impact on fantasy rosters. This week, we will look at two games from the American Conference and one from each of the Big 12, Pac 12 and ACC.
In order to be included here, a game needed to appear in both DraftKings and FanDuel contests for the upcoming weekend. Also, I wanted to make sure that both slates were fairly represented, so we have three early games and two late games, instead of strictly looking at the five highest totals on the board.
Baylor at Oklahoma State (late)
Projected total of 78 points
Baylor: Besides the Oklahoma team that Baylor faced last weekend, this matchup might be the toughest defensive test they faced this season. Oklahoma State ranks in the top 40 nationally in yards-per-carry defense, pass efficiency defenses and sack percentage, which, for a Big 12 team, is pretty strong.
After a brilliant effort two weeks ago in his first career start, Baylor quarterback Jarrett Stidham took a step back last week, completing 59 percent of his passes for 257 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Despite the mediocre effort, we’re still talking about a talented quarterback in a powerful offense. This week he projects as a top four quarterback for me, which is in line with his FanDuel price, but represents a significant value at DraftKings given his No. 9 salary.
On the receiving end of Stidham’s passes should be the trio of Corey Coleman, KD Cannon and Jay Lee. Last week, for the first time all season, Coleman was held out of the end zone, while recording his lowest yardage total of the season. Coleman projects as a top-two receiver for me this week, which is reflected in his pricing at both sites. For Cannon and Lee, I think they are fair values at FanDuel, but based on their DraftKings pricing, I think much of their upside is already priced in.
The ground game has seen an interesting development over the last two weeks since Stidham went under center. Shock Linwood continues to pace the backfield with 34 carries, 175 yards and zero touchdowns over the last two games, while Devin Chafin has returned from injury to 23 carries, 88 yards and three touchdowns during that stretch. Despite the emergence of Chafin, I still like Linwood to top 100 yards and find the end zone. I think he’s fairly priced as my No. 9 back at DraftKings and my No. 2 back at FanDuel. Meanwhile, Chafin looks to be somewhat overpriced, but I might be a little conservative as we figure out if last week’s red zone usage is the new norm, or if it was just a wrinkle specific to that game.
PFF now has weekly projections for college players, which you can explore here.
Jon Moore is a contributor at PFF Fantasy, RotoViz and TheCFX. Continue this conversation with him on Twitter @TheCFX.