2017 post-draft rookie fantasy mock
A little over a week has passed since the NFL draft kicked off, and a lot has changed across the fantasy football landscape. You might remember that last week, the PFF fantasy staff got together for a pre-draft rookie mock draft. Immediately following the conclusion of the NFL draft, we conducted another mock with the same exact participants in the same exact order. While a number of the picks came off the board in similar locations, there were also some dramatic shifts.
Below you’ll find the results of our post-draft rookie mock. Just like before, the rules are simple: 12 teams, six rounds, non-snake. Movement from the pre-draft mock is indicated in the far right column.
|1.01||Tyler Loechner||Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR||0|
|1.02||Michael Moore||Corey Davis, WR, TEN||+2|
|1.03||Mike Castiglione||Leonard Fournette, RB, JAX||-1|
|1.04||Daniel Kelley||Joe Mixon, RB, CIN||+4|
|1.05||Joey Cartolano||Mike Williams, WR, LAC||0|
|1.06||Brandon Marianne Lee||O.J. Howard, TE, TB||+1|
|1.07||Dan Schneier||Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN||-4|
|1.08||Scott Barrett||John Ross, WR, CIN||-2|
|1.09||Walton Spurlin||David Njoku, TE, CLV||+6|
|1.10||Pat Thorman||Kareem Hunt, RB, KC||+6|
|1.11||Jon Moore||JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT||-2|
|1.12||Jeff Ratcliffe||Zay Jones, WR, BUF||+2|
Nothing changed at the top of the draft, as McCaffrey went first overall yet again. There’s certainly no fault to this pick, though a case could also be made for Davis at No. 1. Davis moved up two spots from our pre-draft mock, and is in a good position to succeed in Tennessee with ascending quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Both Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook moved four spots from the last mock, but in different directions. Mixon’s was a positive trend after landing in Cincinnati. He should have no problem blowing right past Jeremy Hill and emerging as the Bengals’ lead back. Cook also projects as the lead in Minnesota, though his slide out of Day 1 and the Vikings’ offensive line woes are slight causes for concern.
The biggest movers in the first round were tight end David Njoku and running back Kareem Hunt. Njoku will get a chance to be the guy right away for the Browns after Cleveland parted ways with Gary Barnidge. However, those in redraft formats should proceed with caution, as it’s rare for a rookie tight end to make a significant fantasy impact. Hunt steps into an ideal situation in Kansas City, and has a good chance of beating out incumbent Spencer Ware.
|2.01||Tyler Loechner||Evan Engram, TE, NYG||+4|
|2.02||Michael Moore||Alvin Kamara, RB, NO||-2|
|2.03||Mike Castiglione||Jamaal Williams, RB, GB||+9|
|2.04||Daniel Kelley||Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR||-5|
|2.05||Joey Cartolano||Chris Godwin, WR, TB||-7|
|2.06||Brandon Marianne Lee||Jeremy McNichols, RB, TB||+4|
|2.07||Dan Schneier||Samaje Perine, RB, WAS||+2|
|2.08||Scott Barrett||ArDarius Stewart, WR, NYJ||0|
|2.09||Walton Spurlin||D’Onta Foreman, RB, HST||-3|
|2.10||Pat Thorman||Taywan Taylor, WR, TEN||+3|
|2.11||Jon Moore||Gerald Everett, TE, LAR||+26|
|2.12||Jeff Ratcliffe||Carlos Henderson, WR, DEN||-11|
Jamaal Williams moved up fairly dramatically from the first go-around after landing with the Packers. Williams has the ability to be an early-down workhorse, but he’ll need to beat out Ty Montgomery and fellow rookie Aaron Jones for the job.
One of the biggest risers up the draft board was TE Gerald Everett. It isn’t the most ideal landing spot for the former basketball player with the Rams coming off an ugly season with the disappointing former first overall pick Jared Goff under center. However, there is a new regime in town, and Sean McVay plans to use Everett much like he did Jordan Reed in Washington. That sound you hear is second-year TE Tyler Higbee’s dynasty stock plummeting.
Curtis Samuel, Chris Godwin, and Carlos Henderson all dropped from the first mock, but the value for each is solid in the second round. Samuel should hit the ground running and offer weekly upside as Carolina’s slot receiver. Godwin may be a bit buried on the Buccaneers’ depth chart, but his talent will almost certainly allow him to surface on the fantasy radar in the near future. Henderson remains one of my favorite receivers in this year’s class due to his run-after-catch ability. He may not pay immediate dividends, but his upside is very appealing for dynasty purposes.
|3.01||Tyler Loechner||Deshaun Watson, QB, HST||+8|
|3.02||Michael Moore||Marlon Mack, RB, IND||+13|
|3.03||Mike Castiglione||Dede Westbrook, WR, JAX||-8|
|3.04||Daniel Kelley||Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC||+3|
|3.05||Joey Cartolano||Ishmael Zamora, WR, OAK||0|
|3.06||Brandon Marianne Lee||Mitchell Trubisky, QB, CHI||0|
|3.07||Dan Schneier||Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR||-5|
|3.08||Scott Barrett||Joe Williams, RB, SF||+12|
|3.09||Walton Spurlin||Isaiah Ford, WR, MIA||-10|
|3.10||Pat Thorman||Josh Reynolds, WR, LAR||+1|
|3.11||Jon Moore||Elijah McGuire, RB, NYJ||+24|
|3.12||Jeff Ratcliffe||DeShone Kizer, QB, CLV||0|
This remains the sweet spot for quarterbacks, as each of the top four were taken in Round 3 yet again. Watson was the only one to show significant movement, as he’s best positioned for early success in Houston. Kizer remains the best value of the bunch. His ceiling is higher than anyone except perhaps Mahomes, yet he can almost always be drafted after the first three come off the board.
We also saw some running backs move up dramatically into this round. Marlon Mack jumped an entire round after landing with the Colts. He’s positioned well to emerge as Frank Gore’s replacement. Joe Williams also moved up a round. The 49ers’ new regime isn’t quite sold on Carlos Hyde, so Williams has the potential to immediately contribute. However, the biggest riser was McGuire, who skyrocketed up the board two whole rounds. The Jets still have Matt Forte and Bilal Powell, but neither player is a spring chicken. McGuire has appealing upside, but the Jets still have a lot of work to do on the offensive side of the ball.
|4.01||Tyler Loechner||James Conner, RB, PIT||-9|
|4.02||Michael Moore||Jake Butt, TE, DEN||+2|
|4.03||Mike Castiglione||Malachi Dupre, WR, GB||-5|
|4.04||Daniel Kelley||Wayne Gallman, RB, NYG||+2|
|4.05||Joey Cartolano||Mack Hollins, WR, PHI||+12|
|4.06||Brandon Marianne Lee||Donnel Pumphrey, RB, PHI||-5|
|4.07||Dan Schneier||Josh Malone, WR, CIN||+0|
|4.08||Scott Barrett||Adam Shaheen, TE, CHI||+20|
|4.09||Walton Spurlin||C.J. Beathard, QB, SF||ND|
|4.10||Pat Thorman||Aaron Jones, RB, GB||+10|
|4.11||Jon Moore||Kenny Golladay, WR, DET||ND|
|4.12||Jeff Ratcliffe||Amara Darboh, WR, SEA||+13|
Here’s where things change pretty dramatically from our pre-draft mock. We have two players who weren’t originally drafted in QB C.J. Beathard and WR Kenny Golladay. Beathard went higher than expected as a Day 2 pick, but his dynasty outlook isn’t especially appealing. However, Golladay is in a position where he could contribute immediately as the Lions’ No. 3 receiver.
Surprisingly, Conner dropped nine spots from the last mock. He landed in a great spot in Pittsburgh with little competition to be Le’Veon Bell’s backup. Given Bell’s injury history, Conner has a chance to surface as a fantasy option in 2017.
The biggest move of the round is small-schooler and former basketball player, Adam Shaheen. Chicago doesn’t qualify as a premier destination, but it isn’t a bad spot for the former Ashland tight end. Zach Miller is still on the roster, but he’s well on the wrong side of 30 years old. Shaheen is a bit raw, but his size and athleticism make him a candidate to emerge as a TE1 down the road.
|5.01||Tyler Loechner||Ryan Switzer, WR, DAL||-11|
|5.02||Michael Moore||Chad Hansen, WR, NYJ||-23|
|5.03||Mike Castiglione||KD Cannon, WR, SF||-19|
|5.04||Daniel Kelley||Jordan Leggett, TE, NYJ||+3|
|5.05||Joey Cartolano||Elijah Hood, RB, OAK||-12|
|5.06||Brandon Marianne Lee||Robert Davis, WR, WAS||-6|
|5.07||Dan Schneier||Bucky Hodges, TE, MIN||-10|
|5.08||Scott Barrett||Chad Williams, WR, ARZ||ND|
|5.09||Walton Spurlin||Jehu Chesson, WR, KC||+12|
|5.10||Pat Thorman||Brian Hill, RB, ATL||-12|
|5.11||Jon Moore||Corey Clement, RB, PHI||+8|
|5.12||Jeff Ratcliffe||Jonnu Smith, TE, TEN||0|
The bottom dropped out for six of the 12 players selected in this round. Ryan Switzer dipped nearly a full round despite landing in a good spot with the Cowboys. He won’t contribute much immediately, but his long-term outlook is positive as a future slot receiver. Chad Hansen fell nearly two rounds after being selected by the Jets. KD Cannon’s fall was nearly as dramatic after going undrafted and signing with the Raiders. Both Elijah Hood and Brian Hill dropped a full round after landing in crowded backfields. And much like on draft weekend, Bucky Hodges dropped down the draft board.
|6.01||Tyler Loechner||Chad Kelly, QB, DEN||-9|
|6.02||Michael Moore||Tarik Cohen, RB, CHI||ND|
|6.03||Mike Castiglione||Shelton Gibson, WR, PHI||ND|
|6.04||Daniel Kelley||Travin Dural, WR, FA||-10|
|6.05||Joey Cartolano||T.J. Logan, RB, ARI||0|
|6.06||Brandon Marianne Lee||Davis Webb, QB, NYG||-3|
|6.07||Dan Schneier||George Kittle, TE, SFO||ND|
|6.08||Scott Barrett||Jeremy Sprinkle, TE, WAS||-12|
|6.09||Walton Spurlin||Justin Davis, RB, LAR||-18|
|6.10||Pat Thorman||DeAngelo Yancey, WR, GBP||-23|
|6.11||Jon Moore||De’Angelo Henderson, RB, DEN||ND|
|6.12||Jeff Ratcliffe||Stacy Coley, WR, MIN||ND|
You’re always throwing darts in the last few rounds of rookie drafts, but there are a few names worth calling out here. Chad Kelly was the fifth quarterback selected, and he’s really the only other signal caller worth a flier beyond the top four in this year’s class. At times, he was electric on the field at Ole Miss, though he has a checkered past off the field. The other player of note is RB T.J. Logan. The speedster out of North Carolina is in a good position to emerge as David Johnson’s primary backup and fantasy handcuff in Arizona.