I’ve written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out the original introductions to rushing and receiving OTD. I’ve also improved my methodology in the past, and you can read the rushing, passing, and receiving articles via the provided links.
In a nutshell, the OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
Scroll down for the updated 2015 OTD leaderboard.
Week 15 Rundown
Receiving
Week 15 receiving OTD leaders: Ben Watson (2.0), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (1.4), Brandin Cooks (1.4), Rob Gronkowski (1.1), Doug Baldwin (1.1), Ted Ginn (1.1), Sammy Watkins (1.0), Jeff Janis (1.0), Golden Tate (1.0), Eric Decker (1.0)
Week 15 endzone target leaders: Sammy Watkins (3), Cameron Brate (2), Ted Ginn (2), Ben Watson (2), Antonio Brown (2), Amari Cooper (2), Davante Adams (2), Rob Gronkowski (2), Brandin Cooks (2), Jordan Reed (2), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2), Jeff Janis (2), Alshon Jeffery (2), Hakeem Nicks (2), Devin Funchess (2), Doug Baldwin (2), Golden Tate (2)
2015 endzone target leaders: Allen Robinson (19), Eric Decker (18), Brandon Marshall (18), Gary Barnidge (17), DeAndre Hopkins (17), Alshon Jeffery (16), Calvin Johnson (15), Martavis Bryant (13)
2015 receiving touchdown overachievers: Doug Baldwin (+7.2), Odell Beckham Jr. (+5.7), Ted Ginn (+5.2), Tyler Eifert (+5.1), Rob Gronkowski (+4.5), Sammy Watkins (+4.2), Tyler Lockett (+3.4), James Jones (+3.2), Allen Robinson (+3.2), Jordan Reed (+3.1)
2015 receiving touchdown underachievers: Mike Evans (-3.3), Brandon LaFell (-3.1), Alshon Jeffery (-3.1), Marcedes Lewis (-2.7), Jared Cook (-2.6), Davante Adams (-2.6), Zach Ertz (-2.2), Jason Witten (-2.2), Heath Miller (-2.1), Coby Fleener (-2)
Rushing
Week 15 rushing OTD leaders: Jeremy Hill (2.4), Todd Gurley (1.7), David A. Johnson (1.4), LeSean McCoy (1.2), Blake Bortles (1.0), Tim Hightower (0.9), Ryan Tannehill (0.8), Ronnie Hillman (0.8), Danny Woodhead (0.7), Eddie Lacy (0.7)
Week 15 ‘Inside the 5' carry leaders: Jeremy Hill (5), Todd Gurley (4), David A. Johnson (2), Chris Ivory (2), LeSean McCoy (2)
2015 ‘Inside the 5' carry leaders: Chris Ivory (17), Jeremy Hill (13), DeAngelo Williams (13), Adrian L. Peterson (11), Matt Forte (10), Mark Ingram (9), Jonathan C. Stewart (9), Ronnie Hillman (9), Chris D. Johnson (9), LeGarrette Blount (9)
2015 rushing touchdown overachievers: Lamar Miller (+4.1), Karlos Williams (+4), Devonta Freeman (+3.5), Todd Gurley (+3.3), Kirk Cousins (+3.2), Jamaal Charles (+2.8), Tavon Austin (+2.6), Spencer Ware (+2.4), David A. Johnson (+2.4), Andre Ellington (+2.2)
2015 rushing touchdown underachievers: Chris D. Johnson (-3.8), Andre Williams (-3.1), Javorius Allen (-3), Toby Gerhart (-2.7), Alfred Morris (-2.5), Frank Gore (-2.4), Denard Robinson (-2.2), Tevin Coleman (-2.2), Chris Ivory (-2.1), Melvin Gordon (-2.1)
| 2015 OTD LEADERBOARD | ||||||||||||
| RUSHING | RECEIVING | |||||||||||
| Rk | Rusher | Att | TD | OTD | % | Rk | Receiver | Targ | TD | OTD | % | |
| 1 | Chris Ivory | 230 | 7 | 9.1 | 133% | 1 | Eric Decker | 112 | 10 | 10.1 | 161% | |
| 2 | DeAngelo Williams | 178 | 9 | 8.7 | 119% | 2 | Allen Robinson | 124 | 13 | 9.8 | 127% | |
| 3 | Jeremy Hill | 188 | 10 | 8.7 | 129% | 3 | Brandon Marshall | 144 | 11 | 9.0 | 112% | |
| 4 | Jonathan C. Stewart | 242 | 6 | 7.8 | 82% | 4 | DeAndre Hopkins | 165 | 10 | 8.0 | 119% | |
| 5 | Adrian L. Peterson | 286 | 9 | 7.7 | 89% | 5 | Gary Barnidge | 101 | 9 | 7.9 | 169% | |
| 6 | LeGarrette Blount | 165 | 6 | 7.1 | 101% | 6 | Greg Olsen | 107 | 7 | 7.7 | 115% | |
| 7 | Cam Newton | 119 | 7 | 6.8 | 146% | 7 | Calvin Johnson | 119 | 7 | 7.5 | 133% | |
| 8 | Chris D. Johnson | 196 | 3 | 6.8 | 104% | 8 | Odell Beckham Jr. | 146 | 13 | 7.3 | 99% | |
| 9 | Doug Martin | 256 | 5 | 6.8 | 89% | 9 | Alshon Jeffery | 92 | 4 | 7.1 | 125% | |
| 10 | Latavius Murray | 236 | 5 | 6.7 | 106% | 10 | Tyler Eifert | 62 | 12 | 6.9 | 189% | |
| 11 | Devonta Freeman | 218 | 10 | 6.5 | 93% | 11 | Antonio Brown | 162 | 9 | 6.8 | 83% | |
| 12 | Frank Gore | 226 | 4 | 6.4 | 101% | 12 | A.J. Green | 110 | 8 | 6.7 | 103% | |
| 13 | Ronnie Hillman | 183 | 6 | 6.1 | 122% | 13 | Martavis Bryant | 82 | 6 | 6.6 | 161% | |
| 14 | Mark Ingram | 166 | 6 | 5.9 | 92% | 14 | Rob Gronkowski | 102 | 11 | 6.5 | 132% | |
| 15 | Matt Forte | 190 | 4 | 5.7 | 109% | 15 | Mike Evans | 129 | 3 | 6.3 | 84% | |
| 16 | Todd Gurley | 210 | 9 | 5.7 | 110% | 16 | John Brown | 84 | 6 | 6.2 | 121% | |
| 17 | DeMarco Murray | 176 | 4 | 4.7 | 106% | 17 | Julio Jones | 171 | 7 | 6.1 | 90% | |
| 18 | David A. Johnson | 105 | 7 | 4.6 | 132% | 18 | Jordan Reed | 97 | 9 | 5.9 | 137% | |
| 19 | Isaiah Crowell | 154 | 3 | 4.6 | 120% | 19 | Ben Watson | 89 | 5 | 5.8 | 145% | |
| 20 | Antonio Andrews | 141 | 3 | 4.5 | 112% | 20 | Doug Baldwin | 83 | 13 | 5.8 | 147% | |
| 21 | Darren McFadden | 208 | 3 | 4.4 | 98% | 21 | Allen Hurns | 84 | 8 | 5.7 | 108% | |
| 22 | Matthew Jones | 144 | 3 | 4.4 | 105% | 22 | Michael Crabtree | 128 | 7 | 5.7 | 101% | |
| 23 | Marshawn Lynch | 111 | 3 | 4.3 | 158% | 23 | Golden Tate | 112 | 6 | 5.6 | 105% | |
| 24 | Eddie Lacy | 162 | 3 | 4.3 | 117% | 24 | Randall Cobb | 112 | 6 | 5.5 | 92% | |
| 25 | Charcandrick West | 133 | 4 | 4.1 | 115% | 25 | Demaryius Thomas | 149 | 5 | 5.4 | 96% | |
| 26 | Andre Williams | 80 | 1 | 4.1 | 196% | 26 | Larry Fitzgerald | 129 | 7 | 5.4 | 68% | |
| 27 | T.J. Yeldon | 182 | 2 | 4.0 | 54% | 27 | Michael Floyd | 76 | 6 | 5.4 | 116% | |
| 28 | Jeremy Langford | 124 | 6 | 3.9 | 113% | 28 | Richard Rodgers | 71 | 7 | 5.4 | 143% | |
| 29 | LeSean McCoy | 202 | 3 | 3.8 | 86% | 29 | Brandin Cooks | 113 | 8 | 5.2 | 102% | |
| 30 | Joique Bell | 80 | 3 | 3.5 | 204% | 30 | Jarvis Landry | 135 | 4 | 5.0 | 87% | |
| 31 | Alfred Morris | 166 | 1 | 3.5 | 74% | 31 | T.Y. Hilton | 112 | 5 | 4.9 | 92% | |
| 32 | Giovani Bernard | 140 | 2 | 3.5 | 71% | 32 | Dez Bryant | 68 | 3 | 4.9 | 143% | |
| 33 | Blake Bortles | 48 | 2 | 3.3 | 165% | 33 | Ted Ginn | 88 | 10 | 4.8 | 88% | |
| 34 | Denard Robinson | 56 | 1 | 3.2 | 140% | 34 | James Jones | 68 | 8 | 4.8 | 132% | |
| 35 | Jameis Winston | 46 | 5 | 3.2 | 234% | 35 | Sammy Watkins | 70 | 9 | 4.8 | 159% | |
| 36 | Tevin Coleman | 87 | 1 | 3.2 | 114% | 36 | Marvin Jones | 81 | 4 | 4.7 | 98% | |
| 37 | Ryan Mathews | 98 | 5 | 3.1 | 128% | 37 | Terrance Williams | 73 | 3 | 4.7 | 128% | |
| 38 | Le'Veon Bell | 113 | 3 | 3.1 | 68% | 38 | Julian Edelman | 85 | 7 | 4.4 | 109% | |
| 39 | Alfred Blue | 147 | 2 | 3.0 | 115% | 39 | Julius Thomas | 69 | 5 | 4.4 | 103% | |
| 40 | Khiry Robinson | 56 | 4 | 3.0 | 137% | 40 | Martellus Bennett | 76 | 3 | 4.3 | 92% | |
| 41 | Javorius Allen | 105 | 0 | 3.0 | 105% | 41 | Donte Moncrief | 96 | 6 | 4.3 | 93% | |
| 42 | Danny Woodhead | 82 | 3 | 3.0 | 219% | 42 | Pierre Garcon | 92 | 4 | 4.3 | 104% | |
| 43 | Lamar Miller | 160 | 7 | 2.9 | 90% | 43 | Zach Ertz | 80 | 2 | 4.2 | 137% | |
| 44 | Thomas Rawls | 147 | 4 | 2.9 | 79% | 44 | Anquan Boldin | 94 | 3 | 4.2 | 116% | |
| 45 | Mike Tolbert | 50 | 1 | 2.8 | 141% | 45 | Kamar Aiken | 103 | 5 | 4.2 | 101% | |
| 46 | Carlos Hyde | 115 | 3 | 2.7 | 99% | 46 | Jason Witten | 90 | 2 | 4.2 | 92% | |
| 47 | Toby Gerhart | 20 | 0 | 2.7 | 323% | 47 | Malcom Floyd | 60 | 3 | 4.2 | 164% | |
| 48 | Justin Forsett | 151 | 2 | 2.6 | 65% | 48 | Jeremy Maclin | 109 | 6 | 4.2 | 117% | |
| 49 | Joseph Randle | 76 | 4 | 2.6 | 160% | 49 | Jordan Matthews | 104 | 5 | 4.1 | 102% | |
| 50 | Rashad Jennings | 154 | 2 | 2.6 | 65% | 50 | Coby Fleener | 70 | 2 | 4.0 | 120% | |
*New this year is the ‘%' column. This is a factor that helps us better understand a player's usage as it relates to his scoring opportunity. A mark of 100% is league average. The higher the number, the more the player is used near the goal line. And vice versa. Short yardage backs will often have a high number and scat backs will generally be low in the category.
Be sure to check back each week for updated OTD tables and analysis.
Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @MikeClayNFL
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