Dynasty ADP Watch: Post-Draft
The draft and subsequent mini-camps impact ADP more than any other time period on the NFL calendar, especially in dynasty leagues. We finally know where rookies have landed, what veteran players’ jobs are in jeopardy because of it, and what the first impressions of these rookies are as they step on an NFL (albeit practice) field for the first time.
There are always over-reactions over the course of the spring in the fantasy football community, both positive and negative. It is important to distinguish between these over-reactions and actual market corrections that accurately reflect a player’s value.
Matt Jones, RB, Redskins (Up 135 spots to 125 overall)
I recently wrote about Matt Jones as a potential rookie breakout in our Draft Guide after he landed in Washington, and it appears that the dynasty community agrees. The third round pick was easily the highest riser in dynasty ADP during this two-month period.
Alfred Morris is entrenched on early downs, but beat reporters are already suggesting that Jones projects to be the team’s third down back following a spring where he flashed the plus passing game acumen he displayed at Florida. Gone is Roy Helu, creating a 382-snap, 42-reception void in Jay Gruden’s backfield.
At 6’2”, 231 lbs., Jones is hardly a passing game specialist; however, he is physically capable of running between the tackles. Morris’ two-down role appears safe, but he is entering a contract year.
Jones can contribute on all three downs despite mediocre athleticism (4.61 40-yard dash) and should be ready to take advantage if anything were to happen to Morris. Even with his meteoric rise, his ADP is still very palatable.
Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys (Up 119 spots to 117 overall)
Joseph Randle’s ADP trajectory is very similar to that of Jones, but for different reasons. It skyrocketed following Dallas’ decision to not draft a running back as fantasy footballers have been champing at the bit to anoint a starter behind the Cowboys’ league-best offensive line.
Randle does not possess any elite traits but has shown he is capable of getting what is blocked after averaging 6.7 yards per carry on 51 carries last season. The problem is the lack of clarity in the Dallas backfield. I fully expect Lance Dunbar to steal most of the passing-down work, and Jerry Jones will make sure that his fellow Arkansas alum Darren McFadden is in the mix as well.
Randle is going to cost you a mid-round pick for the moment, but that price figures to continue to climb in the coming weeks. I would hold for now with the hopes of selling for even greater profit during training camp.
Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Panthers (Up 86 spots to 168 overall)
Cameron Artis-Payne was a relative unknown as an NFL prospect until the Panthers took him in the fifth round in April. As the clear-cut backup to Jonathan Stewart following the release of DeAngelo Williams, the former Auburn Tiger has predictably risen in dynasty value as the spring progressed.
Artis-Payne is a very compact, downhill runner who does not waste much movement in his running style. He sustained a quality 5.3-yards-per-carry average despite what was easily the biggest workload (303 attempts) of any running back in the SEC.
Stewart does better everything that Artis-Payne can do, especially receiving, but the eternal question of Stewart’s health looms. I personally am a Stewart believer; I think that his limited workload early in his career has left a few quality years of tread left on his tires.
Still, it’s hard to trust him to stay healthy weekly with his history and at age 28, making Artis-Payne a must handcuff for Stewart owners. At an ADP in the 15th round, I like his stand-alone value as well.
Theo Riddick, RB, Lions (Down 52 spots to 208 overall)
Theo Riddick’s drop in ADP is a direct reaction to Detroit’s drafting of Ameer Abdullah, who is capable of stealing work on all three downs and is undeniably the back to own on the Lions moving forward. That being said, I don’t understand such a drastic drop in Riddick’s value.
With Reggie Bush leaving, Detroit was expected to draft a running back. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi targeted his running backs at the second-highest rate in the league last year (165). Even as the third running back, Riddick garnered 50 targets, converting 34 into receptions.
He once again is the third running back, but Joique Bell is steadily on the decline as he nears age 29 in August. Beat writers are projecting Riddick to see snaps as a slot receiver, giving him more opportunities for targets. Considering you can get him for practically nothing, I would be looking to scoop him up as quality bench depth, especially in PPR leagues.
Paul Richardson, WR, Seahawks (Down 41 spots to 245 overall)
Lost in the midst of a historic 2014 wide receiver class, Paul Richardson was a favorite mid-to-late round rookie pick last year after he was taken in the second round by Seattle.
After a rookie season in which he only played on 48.4 percent of the team’s snaps and garnered a mere 39 targets despite a thin Seattle receiving core, the law of averages appeared to be pointing toward Richardson as the inevitable bust among his classmates at the position.
Then, Seattle went and traded for Jimmy Graham and drafted Tyler Lockett, a do-everything return man who thrived as a slot receiver and trailed only Amari Cooper for the nation’s lead in receiving yards this past season. Targets and snaps are going to be even harder for Richardson to come by moving forward. His drop in ADP is justified.
Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins, (Down 37 spots to 100 overall)
Kenny Stills’ long-term outlook certainly took a hit when the Dolphins drafted DeVante Parker in the first round, but I think his value dropping a full three rounds to the No. 48 receiver is an overreaction. He is now tied to a quality young quarterback instead of an aging Drew Brees, and Parker is already battling foot injuries similar to the ones that plagued him in college.
I would much rather have Stills than the other receivers in his ADP range: Kendall Wright, Josh Gordon, and Percy Harvin, just to name a few. I consider Stills to be a high-end WR4, and he is being drafted as a WR5. While Parker rests his foot, Stills is soaking up all of the deep targets from Ryan Tannehill in offseason practices. I expect Tannehill to lean on him out of the gate because of this, which should create an excellent opportunity to sell for value if you buy at current prices.
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