DFS Prediction Models – Part 4: Wide Receivers
Wide receiver is the most valuable position in daily fantasy football – especially on DraftKings (DK). First, receivers make up three of the nine total roster positions, or four if one is played at the flex position (RB/WR/TE). Secondly, DK’s PPR-scoring format most benefits the receivers. Thirdly, they have more than twice the amount of 40-plus-yard plays than both the tight ends and running backs. Lastly, and above all else, of all the positions, they score the most fantasy points relative to their salaries.
Unfortunately, wide receiver is also the least-consistent and least-predictable position in fantasy. They have the highest ceilings and lowest floors. The majority of the players who have won DK guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments used wide receivers at their flex positions – demonstrating the receivers’ high-fantasy ceilings. So, one may ask: Is there a meaningful way to project which receivers will score near their fantasy ceilings during their next game? Let’s take a look.
Just as with the prior three positions discussed in this series, all of the wide receiver PFF Signature Stats were analyzed for significant correlations with future fantasy scores.