DFS Prediction Models – Part 1: Quarterbacks
In daily-fantasy leagues, it’s difficult to find an edge. The white noise of the fantasy statistics, rankings, and expert opinions make it hard to pick up on the correct signals. So, is there a “station” that holds the key to finding daily-fantasy value? Well, PFF has found a way to better predict the weekly values of quarterbacks.
Daily-fantasy sites try their best to price QBs in an accurate and fair way. Their methods heavily bias the quarterbacks’ current matchups and their recent fantasy scores. However, a previous week’s fantasy points are not significantly correlated with following-week fantasy points.
Fortunately for savvy fantasy owners, there is value to be found in this shortsighted method of pricing quarterbacks. The following is an analysis of the predictive values of PFF Signature Stats for quarterbacks’ following-week fantasy scores.