Combatting group think in fantasy trades
One of the most well-known cognitive biases that humans are subject to is called group think. Often referred to as ‘wisdom of the crowds,’ it’s the notion that we are easily swayed by the popular opinion. Part of the reason why we have difficulty completing trades is that we’re all dealing in a present day reality that is subject to group think. We all generally feel the same about Andrew Luck and Dion Lewis as buy lows and Travis Benjamin as a sell high.
But what if you could anticipate a future buy-low? Starting that trade conversation a little earlier than the rest of the fantasy community might give you a real chance at completing the deal before the wisdom of the crowd catches on. This is what I call seeding trades. By initiating conversation early, what you find is that you’re almost creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Your opponent is initially lukewarm on the idea but then sees a bad week or two and will wonder if he should pull the trigger after all. You may even find a slightly sweeter deal as he attempts to revive discussions previously had.
The easiest way to do this is via upcoming schedule. Finding a player with a difficult few weeks ahead sets you up to keep their value low in the mind of your opponent. Here are a few good examples: